It is nearly 100% that Putin will achieve his short term goals. The long term stuff is unpredictable but I'm rooting for you to be right!
I think people are completely wrong about Putin's "goals", and grading him on this bizarre curve. Yes... he has had some wins in the longterm game to reform the Soviet Union, and install himself as a chancellor or emperor of sorts with a branch of puppet "presidents" so he can no longer worry about elections & ruling legitimacy. So far Putin, after 20 years, has what looks like Belarus, and only so far a few parts of Ukraine in Crimea, and the Dombras region. If he is successful in overthrowing Zelensky, and installing a puppet regime that actually gains control of the country, that's two of Soviet states he wants. Armenia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc.... there is still a LONG way to go in order for Putin to get what his objectives are. He could be successful in Ukraine in a way that scares the crap out of Armenia, etc. and they fall peacefully the way Austria, etc. did after Germany showed off a bloody affair in Poland. Also part of the reason why Germany was so effective was that they were able to roll in the troops of the countries they blitzed, and took over. Do you see ANY possible way that Putin expands his army in any effective way with what he's doing in Ukraine?? I just think people need to reframe what Putin's "success" really means both short term, and long term. Congratulations you have nuclear weapons, and a mob like branch of corrupt oligarchs. You took over one part of Ukraine with no resistance because politically its an area comparable to Alabama wanting to leave the Union to be part of the Confederacy. All the while the guy sounds absolutely miserable as a person, and is literally a murderer which is the only reason people do what he says in Russia. Putin is actually pretty weak in reality, and his only strength that has given him any success is the fact that he has a nuclear arsenal gifted to him via Sputnik era Russian scientists, and engineers.
Don't forget Mathloom lives in a brain washed country that couldn't punch it's way out of a wet paper bag. They are reliant on us and Russia not just deciding to roll in there and take over......you would think they would be sympathetic to the Ukraine as his country is far weaker than that, but nope......unreal. DD
Specifically with regards to Ukraine, his short term goal is the toppling of the Zelensky government and the installation of a more Russian friendly regime. He seems likely to accomplish that. Like I said, the long term impact of this war is impossible for me to predict. But he will "win" this war in the short term which is all I have said.
Yes, they've said they are willing to negotiate as long as the indefinite neutrality of Ukraine is secured. Essentially they want an unconditional surrender and the demilitarization of Ukraine which will in effect end the Ukrainian democratic experiment. I wonder if Zelensky will survive.
As far as negotiations... Putin has now called on the Ukrainian military to overthrow their government and surrender saying they are being led to their deaths by Nazis and drug users.
Not only that, they'll want permanent Russian bases throughout Ukraine and they'll probably partition Ukraine to separate the Russian and Ukrainian speaking regions (while giving Kyiv to the Russian speaking one). Also if Zelensky is still in Kyiv, then he's ready to die. He would have fled by now if he thought otherwise.
A spokesperson said that he and members of the government would decide "shortly" what steps they would take with regards to a potential evacuation.
I hope you are wrong, but the likelihood is he does find a way to claim a puppet President in the short term after Zelensky is either murdered or driven out of the country, but I think it's a high likelihood that this puppet is not recognized in any way to operate in the global community, and Ukraine becomes an unstable leaderless warzone. I really don't think that constitutes as success IMO even as a short term objective. If the country is "conquered" and simply ruled by Russia because the country didn't successfully have a regime change is that a short term success? I dunno. So yeah... if you are claiming "short term success" as killing or pushing out Zelensky and claiming that his puppet is actually the new President... yes... I think he can achieve that. But I don't think that actually is a success on it's own, and I don't think he's going to be successful even in the short term with this one objective of controlling Ukraine as his primary Soviet State to start rebuilding back the Union under his control. But to my point... I just think the fetishization of Putin as a comic book level supervillain like the Joker or Thanos is bizarre, and not at all accurate. I don't think he deserves nearly the credit he gets especially from the MAGA right.
Yeah that's a fair take and I think you are likely? hopefully? right that even toppling the government won't end up a success for him. But I mean VERY short term, as in end of next week.
This is basically rolling over and opening the door for Putin. It's also not really accurate. Putin is afraid of NATO because it is a powerful alliance that will stomp him and is in the way of his plans of re-conquest. It was the only thing he mentioned in negotiations with Biden prior to his invasion of the sovereign Democracy of Ukraine. It is obvious that is his chief concern. It is why he was happy to encourage and foster any discord between NATO nations which our previous president fell for and went in whole heartedly. Germany actually took the extraordinary step of halting approval of Nord Stream 2 which is a significant blow to Russia's finances and economical future. The fact that you seem to be upset about a poll question and would sever or damage ties with our NATO ally Germany is so incredibly off base and gives Putin exactly what he wants. Our allies like Germany and other NATO nations are not the biggest concern. The biggest concern should be the aggressive authoritarian leader who just invaded a Democracy favorable to Western ideals regarding governing its citizens. The same one that murders journalists, political opponents etc. The fact that our allies in NATO don't always put in the percentage of their budget they're supposed to is small potatoes compared to that. Everything you are talking about doing is caving in and bending over for our nation's actual adversary, Russia led by Putin. I don't like the idea of the United States just rolling over for expansionist authoritarian adversaries. That is exactly what you are advocating.
Poor Zelensky. He issued his "letter from Alamo" this morning and called on any European with combat experience to come to the aid of Ukraine.
I think a better take is that smart voters decided to throw out a useless unhealthy blob of fat that wasn't good for them.
