RB has to be prioritized damn near more than anything at this point. You just cant justify taking one in the first round. That being said, maybe we have some extra 2nd round picks if Caserio swings a deal.
Sounds like Lovie is setting a smoke screen to enhance the draft pick’s value. If other teams think we are taking a QB, then they’ll be more motivated to move up. That translates into greater value for 1.03.
If Mills was a finished product, I’d be fine with saying he’s just a good QB. No one knows if he will be elite, good or bad yet.
Yeah 100%, but like others have pointed out this places the idea in other teams heads that we could take a QB at 3. Better bring the deluxe nut package if you want to move up to 3.
[The Athletic] What to make of Davis Mills: Should he be Texans’ starting QB in 2022? In a down season for rookie quarterbacks, the Texans’ Davis Mills was on par with the passers drafted a day before him. Among the five rookies who started the majority of their teams’ games, Mills, a third-round pick, finished second in adjusted net yards per attempt and QBR, behind only the Patriots’ Mac Jones. Mills’ improvement over the course of his rookie season helped earn a promotion for Pep Hamilton, who’s moved up from quarterbacks coach to replace Tim Kelly as offensive coordinator. New head coach Lovie Smith said retaining Hamilton and preserving continuity around Mills was “a must,” even though general manager Nick Caserio has stopped short of naming Mills the team’s 2022 starter. “When you look at him relative to some of the other rookie quarterbacks that played last season, you can make an argument that he was just as good or better than any one of them,” Caserio said. “What does that mean for next year? That doesn’t really mean anything. “We felt Davis was a good player when we drafted him, and some of the things that you saw from him this season were confirmation of that. He’s got a long way to go as well, and he’d be the first to tell you that.” Some draft experts, including The Athletic’s Dane Brugler, believe Mills is as physically talented as any quarterback expected to be selected in the first round of this year’s draft, which is weak at the position. Mills’ rookie performance might at least afford the Texans the flexibility not to reach for a quarterback in the draft and instead address other needs. The team could acquire a veteran via trade or free agency to compete with Mills for the starting job next season, though Deshaun Watson’s $40.4 million cap hit for 2022 — along with the Texans’ league-leading $35.5 million in dead money — could determine how much more Houston will spend on the game’s most expensive position while Watson remains on the roster. Does it make much sense for the Texans to trade away significant draft capital for a mid-tier starter? “It’s the front office’s decision, the coach’s decision, to see who plays,” Mills said after throwing for 301 yards and three touchdowns in the Texans’ season finale against the Titans. “But I think, I hope, I’ve proved enough to get that opportunity for next year.” Mills, who started 11 games as a rookie, showed improvement in his second stint as the starter, after taking over for Tyrod Taylor in Week 13. Like most rookies, he said the game slowed down for him over time. But he also faced an easier slate of defenses during the second go-around. So what should we make of Mills? With the help of numbers from TruMedia and Pro Football Focus, here’s a closer look at his 2021 performance to see where he most needs to improve if given the opportunity to start again next season. Accuracy and aggressiveness Next Gen Stats tracks a statistic called completion percentage over expectation, which uses tracking data to determine the likelihood of a completion and compares it to the quarterback’s actual completion rate. It helps show to what degree a quarterback is outperforming or underperforming in his given circumstances. Mills ranked 13th in this category and second among rookies, behind only Jones. Mills also ranked 13th in expected completion percentage, which serves as a judgment of the difficulty of his throws. Many of the quarterbacks who finished ahead of him either played in an elite offense or tended to throw short. Mills, who averaged just 7.4 air yards per attempt, fell into the latter category. The Texans ranked next to last in explosive pass rate; just 10.6 percent of Houston’s pass attempts resulted in gains of at least 16 yards. The only quarterbacks who threw at or past the sticks on early downs at a lower rate than Mills were now-retired Ben Roethlisberger, fellow rookie Zach Wilson and MVP Aaron Rodgers. Though Mills’ performance improved in his second stint as a starter, it was not because of less quick passing. He threw short and long more often. The share of intermediate throws went down. Davis Mills passing depth WEEKS 2-8 WEEKS 12-18 Air yards/attempt 7.38 7.1 Early down throws at or past sticks 33.60% 29.10% Throws at or behind LOS 22.50% 24.30% Throws of 15+ air yards 17.70% 19.50% (Percentages reflect share of overall pass attempts) Mills showed promise as a deep passer, ranking 12th in completion rate on throws of 15-plus air yards (45.2 percent), but the sample size was small (73 attempts). The Texans’ subpar pass protection, woeful running game and limited receiving talent left Mills with few good opportunities to push the ball downfield. Decision making Four of Mills’ 10 interceptions came in one game, a 40-0 loss to the Bills that quickly got out of hand on a cold and rainy day in Western New York. It was Mills’ second start and first away from Houston. After Mills reclaimed the No. 1 quarterback job in Week 13, he threw just two picks — good for an interception rate of 1.1 percent, the sixth lowest among all QBs during that span. But at least according to Pro Football Focus charting, the numbers could’ve been much worse for Mills. He finished the season with the highest turnover-worthy play rate (4.3 percent) of any qualified rookie. Even narrowing the scope to just Week 13 on, Mills tied for the fifth-worst turnover-worthy play rate among 25 qualified QBs. Though Mills had just 32 red zone dropbacks, he deserves credit for taking care of the ball in that area. Despite dealing with a league-worst 12.5 percent pressure rate inside the red zone, Mills threw eight touchdowns and didn’t have a turnover. In a fitting summation of Mills’ rookie year, he ranked first in red zone completion percentage (66.7 percent) and red zone sack rate (12.9 percent of dropbacks). He tended to take care of the ball with a lot of short throws, but the Texans lacked the talent to consistently string together drives this way. How much did surroundings hurt Mills? The Texans pivoted to a run-first offense without Deshaun Watson, but for the second straight year, they finished last in rushing DVOA. By TruMedia’s expected points added model, Houston produced a successful play on first downs just 31.3 percent of the time, making the Texans the least-efficient first-down offense since 2013. That set up the Texans for obvious passing situations in which their offensive line was overmatched. Houston ranked 27th in ESPN’s pass block win rate, a measurement of how often teams hold their blocks for at least 2.5 seconds. The numbers below show a drastic difference in Mills’ performance between when the offense was and wasn’t on schedule. Rankings are in parentheses.
Davis Mills by situation YARDS PER ATTEMPT FIRST DOWN RATE 2nd and 6 or less 8.47 (5) 55.6% (11) 2nd and 7+ 6.28 (21) 22% (24) 3rd and 3 or less 9.35 (6) 61.3% (12) 3rd and 4+ 6.02 (26) 24% (30) Some in the analytics community argue “establishing the run” makes no impact on the effectiveness of a team’s play-action game, but Kelly appeared to think differently while calling the Texans’ offense. Houston deployed play action on early downs just 29.1 percent of the time, the eighth-lowest rate in the NFL. When the Texans called for play action, it tended to be for Mills to air it out. He averaged a league-high 11.35 air yards per attempt on play-action throws. Conversely, he ranked 29 out of 30 qualified quarterbacks in play-action completion rate (60 percent). Expect the Texans to continue with a run-first approach under Smith and Hamilton. “You need to be able to run the football,” Smith said at his introductory news conference. “There is a time we need to pass the football, but doing it in a certain way. Tough, hard-nosed, disciplined ball — that’s what you’ll see from us.” Closing thoughts Though Caserio’s unwillingness to commit to Mills as the team’s 2022 starter might’ve simply been a function of caginess from a general manager, Mills didn’t do enough to make the Texans close themselves off to alternatives this offseason. The trouble is there are fewer options with better short-term and long-term upside. As mentioned above, The Athletic’s Brugler thinks Mills is as physically talented as any prospect in this year’s weaker quarterback class, none of whom appear worthy of the Texans’ No. 3 overall pick. Houston also isn’t a team in position to attract a top-flight QB such as Russell Wilson or Rodgers. The Vikings have indicated they intend to hold on to Kirk Cousins, and even San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo holds a no-trade clause that could allow him to leverage his way onto a better roster. Starting an impending free agent such as Teddy Bridgewater or Marcus Mariota might make the 2022 Texans immediately better, but to what end? There’s a reason neither has stuck as a starter somewhere. Ideally, with more draft picks and cap flexibility than a year ago, the Texans should be able to put together a better roster around Mills. Combine that with another year of development under Hamilton, and the Texans should finish next season with a clear impression of what they have in Caserio’s first-ever draft pick.
I'm hoping Caserio follows the 49ers model and the Pats model minus the Michel pick. There's not much difference between guys like Corbin/Ingram/Harris/Teague than Hall/Spiller. I really like Pierce though.
I haven't taken a deep enough dive into this draft yet, but if you find yourself staring at Jonathan Taylor in the face with your 2nd round pick, don't over think it this time. That is the type of talent level we could get with a 2nd round pick RB, and that's exactly what we should be shooting for.
Agreed I dont see a Taylor type RB out there this yr. a 230 LB RB that runs in the 4.3's isn't in this draft.
Maybe not exactly that mold. We’ll see what happens with the combine and pro days, but Zamir White, Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall, and Isaiah Spiller sure do sound nice at the moment. If you can get any of those guys in the 3rd round or later, by all means do that too. I just worry about getting too cute and thinking: “we can trade down for that guy and get him later”, that can backfire big time. RB should be top priority outside of the first round.
We have way too many holes to select a RB in the first two rounds, especially this year with no sure fire superstar out there. Unless, we get an absolute haul for Watson and Tunsil, RB should wait until the fourth round. Our third round is damn near a second rounder. If we end up with several 3rd rounders via trade then I’d be more inclined to get a Spiller if available. Spending high draft picks on RB’s is a dangerous game when you have virtually no OL, DL, CB, Safety, or WR depth. Always build from the trenches out.
We had Rex Burkhead shouldering the majority of the load at RB last year. Rex Burkhead absolutely can not, ever, eva eva eva, eva eva eva eva, be the best running back on an NFL team. This is the logic that led to us selecting Ross Blacklock over Jonathan Taylor. You can miss me with that BS. (To be clear, if we draft a top 2-3 RB with a 3rd round selection then fine, but if we get too cute again and miss out altogether just to draft a 6th rounder and hope we can turn them into our Elijah Mitchell, then dude, **** outta here.)
It was questionable at the time and even worse now. But the logic was surely, we have 2016 all pro running back David Johnson Football. No need for Taylor scrubs when you can draft a lumbering DT with questionable work ethic!
Agree to disagree. You can run the second coming of Billy Sims behind our sh*t line and we will be no better off than last year. Nothing says we have to get our rib from this draft or even from the draft period. The 2-3 rounds of NFL is much more likely to land a decade long starting Offensive lineman than a 5 year RB. Most team’s front offices agree, except those that are a running back away from truly contending. This year’s draft is reportedly weak at RB and we have a really high 3rd rounder. Unless we get another 3rd rounder in trade, I wouldn’t draft a RB. Just my opinion, though. Really nothing to get irritated over.
How many good QB's has Lovie coached? Great QB's? Enough said Right now Mills is the best QB prospect in this class, or at least he was the best rookie QB the last month of the season. Get him some protection and a run game and lets see if he can develop into a great QB.
