https://www.newsweek.com/2022/02/18...ves-key-victory-we-change-we-die-1677030.html Who Are The Black Conservatives That Can Influence The 2022 Elections? Mitt Romney's 2012 loss to Barack Obama concluded that the Republican Party's biggest problem was its failure to appeal to voters of color, 2022 is shaping up as a breakthrough year for the GOP on at least one diversity front: Black candidates. From Georgia, where high-profile Black Republicans seek nominations for both governor and senator, to Michigan, where former Detroit Police Chief James Craig is the odds-on favorite to go up against Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, to a lineup of well-funded House and Senate candidates poised to break the record for the number of Black Republicans elected to Congress, a decade-long effort to broaden the appeal of the GOP is finally bearing fruit—and could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections. It remains to be seen whether the coming wave of Black conservative candidates can spur legions of Black voters, the Democratic Party's most loyal constituency, to vote Republican. But judging by recent races featuring a Black GOP candidate—lieutenant governor races in Virginia and North Carolina, a Kentucky attorney general campaign and the last two U.S. Senate races in Michigan—the party has reason to be hopeful. Exit polls showed these Black Republican candidates drew slightly larger, potentially decisive shares of Black votes compared to the white Republicans running alongside them for other offices in their states. Indeed, North Carolina Lt. Governor Mark Robinson, Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron and unsuccessful U.S. Senate hopeful John James in Michigan were the top vote-getting Republicans in their states in their most recent races, indicating they both excited the GOP base and drew crossover votes. "Some Republicans are savvy enough to understand that if they win 10 to 15 percent of Black voters in state and local elections, they can win—and there are ways to actually do this," says Johns Hopkins University political science professor Leah Wright Rigueur, author of the 2016 book, The Loneliness of the Black Republican. One of the most important test cases this year may come in the Michigan governor's race. Craig's campaign to unseat Whitmer, Rigueur says, is "not about winning 100 percent of the Black folks, it's not even about winning 50 percent. It is about winning just enough to push them over the edge and make the difference." Craig echoes that, telling Newsweek his status as a native Detroiter and well-regarded tenure as the city's top cop grants him an authenticity with Black audiences that will "open some minds to what I have to say." Another indication that the GOP is chipping away at Black loyalty to the Democratic Party, according to Republican National Committee spokesman Paris Dennard: last year's elections in Virginia, where there were examples of Black Democrats losing to white Republicans in regions with sizable Black constituencies. Raphael Warnock in Georgia; and ex-State Senator Vernon Jones of Georgia attempting to replace retiring GOP Representative Jody Hice in a sprawling district east of Atlanta. In South Carolina, Scott, only the second Black Republican in the Senate since Reconstruction, has nominal opposition for his reelection and has amassed a huge campaign war chest, sparking chatter about a possible White House run in 2024 or 2028. He's raised more than $30 million since 2017, second only to Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York among senators seeking reelection in 2022, according to Federal Election Commission records. What's more, the RNC expects a record-setting number of Black nominees for the House. They may include John James, who joined the race for a new seat in the Detroit suburbs this month after his losing his last Senate bid by just 1.7 percentage points; if elected, he would be Michigan's first Black Republican member of Congress. Also running in GOP primaries: former Army helicopter pilot Wesley Hunt, the first Black Republican nominee for Congress in Texas in 2020, when he lost by 3 points in a Houston-area district; former Scott legislative aide Shay Hawkins of Akron, Ohio; businessman Quincy McKnight of Nashville; and ex-Trump aide Rod Dorilás, a 31-year-old Navy veteran in Palm Beach County, Florida. "It's not just about Black conservatives rising and seeing their success," says Donalds, a first-term House member who doesn't mince words when it comes to the opposition. "There's a lot of Black people witnessing how diabolical the Democrats are when it comes to trying to maintain their monopoly on Black folks. They're sick of it, they're deciding to make a change, and they're deciding to run for office." The RNC's Mission Illustrating the shift: a little-noticed event in Indiana last summer, when 15 people of color and LGBTQ people graduated from a political organizing and training program organized by the state GOP. The program's online description is laden with the kind of progressive buzzwords that regularly receive mockery in the right-wing media—monthly classes cover "inclusive language, authentic communications, diversity and civic engagement, multicultural messaging...and more!" And none other than RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel showed up to fete the graduates. She told the group: "Expanding coalitions and growing our party has been a passion of mine since I became chair of the RNC—not just to win votes but to build authentic relationships and share our message with all communities." Installed atop the RNC after Donald Trump became president, McDaniel has, in fact, made expanding outreach to Black voters a hallmark of her tenure—an extension of the Black Voices For Trump effort during the 2016 campaign. Many progressives took umbrage with Trump's August 2016 blunt appeal to Black voters—"You're living in poverty, your schools are no good, you have no jobs, 58 percent of your youth is unemployed. What the hell do you have to lose?" And the effort seemed to fail when he garnered a paltry 8 percent of the Black vote. But supporters say that was a prelude to a presidency in which Trump led an outreach and policy initiative that, by 2020, brought his share of the Black vote up to 12 percent, the highest percentage for a GOP presidential nominee since Ronald Reagan took 14 percent on his way to the White House in 1980. "It started with President Trump and how vocal he was about the Black Voices for Trump movement being fully funded and staffed at the campaign, and then you have the chairwoman funding it and the donors embracing it after that," Dennard says. For the Republican Party, the wave of Black candidates represents a giant step forward into a more multicolored future as part of a grand strategic plan for the Grand Old Party. As one high-ranking GOP official, who is white and asked for anonymity to speak frankly, puts it: "We can't be the party of white men anymore. There aren't enough of us. There won't be enough of us in a decade. We change or we die."
By 2020, when Trump ran for reelection, the RNC rented office space in 15 major cities with a large Black population in battleground states for regularly staffed "Voices For Trump" field offices. They closed after the campaign ended, but McDaniel last February committed $2 million to reopen them and expand to more cities. At least three—now called Black American Community Centers—have already opened, in Milwaukee, Cleveland and College Station, Georgia. The effort also includes Dennard writing a weekly column in the Black newspaper The Carolinian, the RNC taking out advertisements in Black media to celebrate Black History Month and placing Black GOP surrogates as pundits on conservative and Black political talk shows. The strategy fits neatly into the playbook recommended in the 2013 RNC report analyzing Romney's presidential-election loss—the one dubbed "the autopsy"—which urged the GOP to seek votes beyond its base of older white Americans. "We need to campaign among Hispanic, black, Asian, and gay Americans and demonstrate we care about them, too," the report said. "We must recruit more candidates who come from minority communities." In the early days of the 2016 Trump campaign, amid the candidate's harsh remarks about immigrants and some communities of color, a Politico headline blared, "Trump kills GOP autopsy" and New York Magazine called it "dead and buried." Yet radio talk host Larry Elder, a Black conservative and the top vote-getting Republican in September's failed recall of Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom, says Trump followed the autopsy's advice all the way to the White House and beyond. "Donald Trump, to a greater degree than any Republican presidential candidate that I've seen, went to the inner city and tried to get Black votes," Elder says. "The message is this: Don't act as if Black people cannot be convinced. They can be. Don't condescend. Tell the truth. Talk about the issues, talk about how these issues benefit you." 'Republicans Who Just Don't Know It Yet" Indeed, some GOP positions, on subjects such as abortion, LGBTQ rights, education and immigration reform, have strong support within the Black community, and are seen by conservatives as issues that can win over Black voters who "are Republicans who just don't know it yet," as Sears, Virginia's new lieutenant governor, likes to say. Cases in point: A 2019 Pew poll found that 49 percent of Black Americans oppose same-sex marriage versus 32 percent of whites; a 2020 Gallup survey reported that 54 percent of Black respondents do not believe abortion is morally acceptable; a 2018 Harvard-Harris survey found 85 percent of Black Americans favor restricting legal immigration, more than any other demographic group; and 73 percent of Black voters support school choice, according to a 2021 RealClear survey. Still, Craig, Detroit's former top cop, knows voting Republican is a tough sell, even in his own family. He's honing his pitch to Black voters in Michigan by talking to his father, a lifelong Democrat. "My dad wants to understand why I'm a Republican, and I say, 'Dad, you are conservative, you've always been a conservative. You believe in law and order. You believe in small government. You believe we shouldn't be excessively taxed. You believe in an entrepreneurial spirit, in the merit principle,'" Craig says. "These are some of the tenets [of the Republican party] and when you put all that together, my dad's a conservative." Recent poll numbers in Michigan show just how high the stakes are for Craig, who has a double-digit lead among Republican hopefuls for the party nod, in improving his standing among Black voters. A Detroit News poll in early January had him 9.5 points behind Whitmer with 11.7 percent undecided in the general election; a Detroit Free Press poll weeks later had him trailing by just 5 points with 13 percent undecided. The Detroit News poll also showed Craig tied with Whitmer among white voters but backed by just 7.6 percent of the Black vote to Whitmer's 82.3 percent, with 10.1 percent undecided. In other words, winning over most of those undecideds and peeling off just a small share of Whitmer's Black support could allow the Republican to pull ahead. Michigan State University political science professor Matt Grossmann believes Craig has a good shot at pulling it off: "The Black vote in southeast Michigan is a huge, important section of the electorate, and he has some name recognition and potential goodwill there. That gets him at least a hearing that white candidates from elsewhere might not get." Trump, in some cases, can be a surprisingly helpful factor, too. Black Republicans point out that, despite his coarse rhetoric on racial issues, Trump's presidency brought policy changes and other developments that benefited people of color, including an economy that yielded record-low Black unemployment; the First Step Act, which eased stringent federal criminal sentencing guidelines and created mechanisms for earlier prison release; and a budget that included $255 million per year for 10 years for Historically Black Colleges and Universities. More recently, Trump's endorsements of a number of little-known Black politicians, despite their slim chances of wining, is encouraging some Black Republican candidates to ignore traditional GOP gatekeepers—local party bosses—who in the past have put the kibosh on their ambitions, says Rigueur, the Johns Hopkins political scientist. "The old Republican Party would say, 'This candidate has no shot, we won't touch them,'" Rigueur says. "That's not how Trump operates. He operates by saying, 'Does this candidate agree with me? Yeah, I like them.'" Not everyone in the party is on board with courting candidates and voters of color. Every time the RNC posts to Facebook about an outreach effort—say, the opening of the Black GOP community centers—laments from rank-and-file white Republicans follow. "Why can't it just be a community center? The parties are ridiculously divisive," said a typical comment. Another poster followed with snark: "I demand you pander to my race as well." Elder and others shrug off the backlash. "Do I think that the Republican Party has done a poor job of marketing itself to Black voters? I do," he says. "They have written off Black people or they've assumed they're going to vote for the Democratic Party." Meanwhile another Black candidate, Kim Klacik of Baltimore, doesn't think the party is going far enough. Klacik, the 2020 GOP nominee for a House seat in a firmly Democratic district, raised more than $8 million after posting a three-minute viral campaign ad scalding Democrats for failing to improve conditions in the city. Trump praised the ad, endorsed her and gave her a prime-time speaking slot at the 2020 Republican Convention.
Winsome Sears says hi. You’re a little late to the party. Not only blacks are fed up with your party, but Hispanics and Independents are saying adios to the Jakass party.
Seems like an elasticity question -- how many black voters can they add by courting black people for each white they lose by courting black people? For small efforts, the ratio is probably greater than 1, making it profitable to do. But to do it at great scale, I suspect the ratio falls below 1, and they shoot themselves in the foot.
It isn't about winning the black vote. It's about telling their voting base "you really aren't racist" because we have black candidates. It's about as subtle as Trump's "Blacks for Trump" crew he always puts behind him at rallies. Then you look out in the crowd and it's like 99% white. However name me one policy that the mainstream GOP runs on that is courting African Americans based on issues they care about? Tell me how many black votes they are trying to get by encouraging voting in black areas of the country? Are they actually helping Black Americans vote???.... I mean that's probably the best place to start in order to get an idea for how serious the GOP is about trying to get black people to vote for them. First things first, they need to actually be able to freaking vote.
Yeah, that will be an interesting dynamic, another factor is the black people that will vote for anyone black which I think makes up half of that 15% who voted for Sears. I think Republicans risk some people not voting at all because they will never vote for a black candidate, but that might be a miniscule number because those people will do anything to 'own the libs" I think this is not sustaining because the rhetoric coming out of these candidates mouth is full on MAGA and that is not going to win you much long term support. Republicans could actually make a huge dent in Black Democratic support if they talked more about taxes and faith, but they would dampen enthusiasm to be seen as pandering to black voters. Running as a black Trumper is not going to win very may races or be sustainable.
Taxes Religion Upward mobility You also have to factor in that there are a significant number of blacks who want to be "accepted" by that type of white crowd. My Grandmother was trying to get me to become involved in Republican politics after I graduated from college, so there are pockets of black people who can be swayed, most of them are Boomers, but those are the ones who vote.
I have a couple erstwhile black conservatives in my family who voted Republican for decades, but felt like the tone of the party turned more hostile with the 2010 Tea Party movement, and went from there with Trump. Anecdotally, it seems to me like courting the black vote is doubly difficult with the spectre of Trump also looming. I gotta agree with @dobro1229, the strategy is more squarely aimed at giving the party plausible deniability regarding claims of racism, and not so much a gambit to gain small inroads in the black voter bloc.
FWIW I think this is a smart bet by the GOP. The Democrats for years have alienated blue collar white voters and rural white voters. The Democrats are relying on women, minorities and well educated middle aged and young white voters to win elections. The loss of the white blue collar voter is a big blow. The Republicans have finally figured out that many Hispanics come from socially conservative families and are more likely to vote Republican if that are targeted. As for black voters, I know some black people that believe that the Democrats do not pursue "America first" policies enough, and are more concerned with other minority groups than black Americans.
I know a number of black voters that supported Trump's position on immigration. They believe that the Democrats should not be so concerned about keeping or supporting illegals or giving them amnesty, and more concerned with black issues. Also, they believe that Hispanics are causing their wages to go down. The Democratic party is very different than it was a decade ago.
I have no doubt they think they can make a decent dent as well have the deniability. They have already made small inroads and I think they want a sizeable chunk, but everything else is going to hurt them.
Well those are issues they COULD run on with a message to African Americans I agree. However... those ads we all are seeing or are going to see on TV, are they really aimed at these issues more Conservative African Americans care about? Taxes - Bringing taxes up just allows the Dems to counter with the 2017 Trump tax cuts which didn't really help anyone other than the top 1%. Maybe there's an inflation/property tax message there, but I doubt the GOP will go there. Religion - Slippery slope. I think the way they word these ads really ends up just focused on culture wars. IE Religion in schools then turns into messaging about public schools which then leads to the nutty school board stuff which I don't think courts black voters. Pro- life messaging??... to some sure, but again you have a history of the pro-life movement negatively impacting african americans more than white people. A GOP messaging strategist is going to be hedgy about this topic and it's probably again going to a culture war message. Upward Mobility - The "pull yourself up from your bootstraps" messaging might be their best shot. "I worked hard at the factory for 40 years so my kids can go to school, and now I don't want to pay more taxes so these ungreatful broke people can live off my dime" has been the GOP's MO for years. Get government out of the way with special programs for underserved communities and just let everyone work harder to earn their place can work for 2nd or 3rd generational black and hispanics for sure. It's a big reason why the Texas Hispanic vote isn't so easy to crack for Democrats for sure. However.... that case ultimately is an argument for a Reagan era mantra. The Reagan American Dream hasn't aged all that well from my vantage point. The Trump MAGA doctrine is in contrast with it too where you can't just do your thing on an island as a family and work hard and succeed. The MAGA doctrine is that THIS GUY over there DOES IMPACT YOU, and it's a zero sum economy. It's not about government getting out of the way as much as it is about government serving as bullies to get pesky leaches in society out of the way so there's a bigger piece of the pie for you poor hard working rural people. ...... My response here is long for a reason.... the reason is from a GOP strategist, all the above here is muddled, and it's just much much much easier to run a campaign of Culture Wars, and black and white "Immigrants coming across the border!!!" messages which isn't an African American outreach to say the least. So I respectfully disagree. I don't think there's one single GOP strategist out there that'll coordinate a strategy that revolves around actually turning out black people in black areas of the country. They know where their ticket to winning elections is, and if you need further evidence just take a look at the way they Gerrymandered districts in 2021.
@jiggyfly but the real question is what should the Democratic messaging be so there's no slippage on the margins, and they actually GROW African American and especially Latino voters. The GOP is going to GOP IMO. They are going to run on culture wars, and border wars. We know this. Some of this messaging can cause slippage. The investment in AM radio spanish speaking talk shows by the GOP is definitely hurting the Democrats in Texas and Florida. So i think it's a much more interesting conversation to start there about what the strategy is on the other side. Because the margins matter, and as we saw with the Georgia win for Biden, and the Wisconsin, and Michigan wins too, the Democrats have to turn out African American voters in order to win, and they need to give them something to vote for. Not just rely on the other side being too racist because you are right that there those on the margins in those communities that'll vote enough to swing elections in some cases... but running black candidates if it's done in the way they are doing in 2022 might very well backfire if it's obvious that it's not really about courting black voters and it's really about making racists feel like they aren't racist.
This. So far most of the candidates are Trumpers so it affects the crossover vote if they had any sense they would recruite a more moderate strain of black candidates. It's as if they think blacks will vote for anybody because they are black.
Great points all around, I don't see them ever rising above 15% because of what you posted here but that 15% will be die hard voters which helps in low turnout elections.
I don't think there is one message because unlike Republicans Democrats want different things from leadership and can be turned off by not getting want they want, just look at how blacks are responding different to the voting rights act. I think turnout is the real issue, as long as there is high turnout you can overcome those margins.
Yep. Especially with the presidential if you look at how Biden won it was turnout specifically from high density African American parts Atlanta, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Phoenix. Its kind of a shame that it's so easy to understand because it forces these races to be so predictable. Look at how Mayor Pete's win in Iowa meant absolutely nothing in the grand scheme. When it became obvious what the key turnout voters wanted in the primary race, the Dem strategists and pollsters all knew what had to be done. Same with the GOP and what needs to be done which is reverse the Dems gains in the suburban white women vote. Which is exactly why they are running black candidates... so those voters feel more comfortable switching back to Republican with Trump off the ballot. The Newsome recall race is interesting because it showed at least at that point that the suburban white voter wasn't switching their vote in suburban cali at least with a re-branding of Trumpism with a black person. We'll see in November how that holds in some of these other races. I think it's likely that turnout hurts Dems more than regains back in the suburbs helps the GOP. Especially if the price of everything holds high into the Summer. That overall is the primary consequential thing that just depresses turnout for WHOEVER is in charge, and leads enough flip flopping on independent voters. If you are team Dem I think the only thing you really care about is getting the price of gas, dairy, meat, and other daily good DOWN, and letting the world know about it. That's strategy #1,2, and 3 right there. This conversation is more of a 2024, and 2028 strategy session.
Yeah, I think Inflation will be the #1 issue leading into the election if it has not declined, the Democrats will be hurting unless they can get on the same page and have a coherent message about the things they have accomplished and not still be fighting over BBB. I still think big corp is milking this inflation thing and or using it to turn the tide of the election because they know it will hurt democrats if it does not change come June I know it's a plan of action. I think things are so bad right now they can't help but get better because at some point like always prices will come down to get better market share and then prices start going down, also manufacturers will start over producing to maximize these higher prices and will have to lower them once a glut occurs.
