Rangers have a 3B and a SP prospect that I like. I do think the Rangers needed to spend some money. That said, I did not think they were quite ready to drop ~$0.5B on the team without a CBA.
Here's hoping Semien and Seager work out the way Cano & Ellsbury did. Which isn't really that bad. Neither deal was quite as terrible as remembered, but I'd say both teams regretted them.
Actually both deals pretty similar accounting for inflation, and where they were relative to other deals signed (the main difference being Cano/Elsbury went to different teams... while the Rangers plan on locking in a large % of their payroll to these two guys who may not have that many prime years remaining).
They could definitely be strong along the IF this year if Jung and Huff work out. Winn & Leiter could combine with Gray to make a good top of the rotation, but Leiter probably has to wait until 2023 and pitchers always have a much higher risk of injury. Without those top 4 prospects panning out, they are a team of 2 stars, a mid-rotation starter, and a bunch of mediocre prospects and veteran backups.
Has just 91 wins ever been good enough to have the best record in the AL? One of these years the Angels are going to compete for the playoffs, right? Or just rack up MVP's with losing records.
those are really conservative estimates, in both directions. There’s def gonna be high 90’s win teams, if not 100 win teams. There’s also gonna be 50’s win teams.
This. Astros being predicted to win 91 games is like saying the Astros have an 80% chance of finishing between 81 and 101 wins. While the projection doesn't know which of the Astros, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, and White Sox will be in the upper 90s, there is a good bet 1-2 of these teams will be.
To be fair. The AL has had a No 1 seed with 95 wins 4 times since 1998 excluding shortened seasons. Most recently in 2016. The NL even had a year 90 wins getting the No 1 seed, 2007.
Keith Law’s Astros Top 20 Prospects Spoiler 1. Korey Lee, C (Just-missed list) Age: 23 | 6-2 | 210 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Drafted: No. 32 in 2019 The Astros’ first-round pick in 2019, Lee was actually my final cut from the top 100 this year, so if you’re asking who was No. 101, it’s him. The reason is his lower ceiling than some of the guys I put over him in the 90s. Lee is a plus defender with a powerful and accurate arm, throwing out 43 percent of runners across three stops last year, and he’s a solid hitter for contact, just without much impact or patience. His pitch recognition seems fine and I have seen him hit velocity, although it’s more singles and doubles than anything that might turn into bigger power. He won’t turn 23 until July, though, and has time to get stronger and prove that I was too light on him here. I do think at worst he’s a soft regular thanks to his defense and contact rates. 2. Jeremy Peña, SS Age: 24 | 6-0 | 202 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Drafted: No. 102 in 2018 Peña is a plus defender at short, possibly a 70, who used to be more a Punch-and-Judy hitter before the lost 2020 season. He bulked up and the Astros helped work on his swing so that he’s now producing well above-average exit velocities, and it showed up in games this year, as he hit 10 homers in just 160 plate appearances after he returned in August from a tendon injury in his wrist that cost him more than three months. He was overly aggressive in his return, which is out of character for him – perhaps he thought if he hit .600 or so he’d make up for lost time – and probably isn’t a concern going forward. He should be a solid/average regular, with maybe a 20-to-30 percent chance he carries all of these offensive gains into the majors and becomes a star. 3. Hunter Brown, RHP Age: 23 | 6-2 | 212 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Drafted: No. 166 in 2019 Brown has elite stuff, still; and un-elite control, still. He averages 95 mph, touches 99-plus, holding it all year and deep into games, with power to both breaking balls. He still walked a man every other inning in 2021, but to his credit, he threw more strikes and walked fewer guys in Triple A than in Double A, even with the higher level using the MLB ball and with some games in hitters’ parks. He has the size to start, and if the trend in his control continues, has at least No. 2 starter ceiling, although I think league-average is more like it — someone who misses a lot of bats but walks closer to four per nine innings than three per nine. 4. Pedro Leon, SS/OF Age: 24 | 5-10 | 170 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Leon is tooled up, tooled out, tooled over, whatever you want to call it, although he didn’t play up to the levels of those tools in his pro debut in 2021. Perhaps it was the long layoff, and in his defense, he was trying to move from the outfield to shortstop and hit Double-A pitching and then got hurt five games after he reached Triple-A, missing almost two months. He can fly, he has plus power, he has a howitzer of an arm, and he has bat speed. Leon hadn’t faced game action in two years when he got on the field in 2021, and he had trouble adjusting to the much higher quality of minor league pitching compared to what he faced in Cuba in 2017-19. In that context, hitting .249/.359/.443 – especially after starting 1 for 21 – in Double A isn’t too bad. The scouting expression “if he figures it out” is almost too strong here. If Leon figures it out halfway, he’s a big-league regular. 5. Forrest Whitley, RHP Age: 24 | 6-7 | 238 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Drafted: No. 17 in 2016 Whitley was the top pitching prospect in baseball just a few years ago, but the past three seasons have held one disaster after another, with the most recent one being Tommy John surgery in March 2021, so we probably won’t see him in the majors until the middle of this year, if that. Once upon a time, he was a five-pitch guy who’d routinely hit 97 mph and could show multiple pluses, with 45 control that was trending up and a delivery that certainly did not explain the loss of command that was to come. Maybe he’ll return from the surgery as 2017-18 Whitley all over again. I hope so, because that player was awesome. 6. Alex Santos, RHP Age: 20 | 6-4 | 194 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Drafted: No. 72 in 2020 Santos was the Astros’ first pick in the 2020 draft, coming in the second round (the Astros lost their first-rounder that year as a penalty for the sign-stealing scandal), and the Bronx high schooler made his pro debut in Low A in 2021, showing premium stuff but not command. He’s a great example of a player hurt by MLB’s penurious choice to eliminate short-season baseball, as he would have been a perfect fit for the defunct New York-Penn League. Anyway, Santos was 92-96 mph with good life on the fastball with promise to both his slider and changeup, while the Astros have been working on adding a curveball to his mix. He worked short stints in part because he was wild – only 59 percent of his pitches were strikes and he walked one of every six batters he faced. He’s 6-4 and still lanky, with a lot of growth ahead of him, and doesn’t have the coordination yet to repeat his delivery. He’s got mid-rotation upside but maybe a five-year development project. 7. Cristian Gonzalez, SS Age: 20 | 6-5 | 180 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Gonzalez signed for just $300,000 back in 2018, but he’s emerged as one of the team’s top international prospects between his defense and his high-end exit velocities. Gonzalez has a plus-plus arm with good actions at shortstop, although at 6-5 he might end up moving to another position. His swing works and should lead to power, with exit velocities already well above the median for his age. He hit well enough in two weeks in the Florida Man League that the Astros bumped him up to Low A, even though he was 19 and hadn’t played outside of the Dominican Summer League before 2021, and he did some damage around a 31 percent strikeout rate in a month for Fayetteville. This is mostly projection, given the limited performance data and looks, but he has the ceiling of an All-Star third baseman. 8. Misael Tamarez, RHP Age: 22 | 6-1 | 206 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Tamarez is up to 97mph from a high slot with some deception, making it a very uncomfortable at-bat for hitters on either side of the plate. He misses bats with the fastball and a tight, high-spin slider, also throwing a curveball, but needs to improve his changeup (or try a splitter?) to be more effective against lefties. It’s 40 command and 45 control right now, but another half-grade on each would probably make him a big-league starter because his deception is so unsettling to hitters. 9. Colin Barber, OF Age: 21 | 6-0 | 194 pounds Bats: Left | Throws: Left Drafted: No. 136 in 2019 Barber played just 16 games before he hurt his shoulder diving for a ball in the outfield, requiring surgery that ended his season. He’s transformed his body since we last saw him in 2019, running better and hitting the ball harder than before, so what he needs most is more repetitions to improve his timing at the plate and tighten his zone recognition. He’ll play at 21 this year, so he has time left to do so. 10. Tyler Whitaker, OF/3B Age: 19 | 6-4 | 190 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Drafted: No. 87 in 2021 The Astros didn’t pick until the third round in 2021, further penalties for the sign-stealing scandal, and made Whitaker their first selection with pick No. 87. A high school shortstop from Las Vegas, Whitaker moved to the outfield in pro ball, mostly playing center last summer, with a handful of appearances at third base. Whitaker can show 70 power, with good plane to his swing for hard line-drive contact, and he has a plus arm that will let him play center or right and at least gives him a chance at third base. He swings and misses way too often, though, with a leak at the plate that’s going to keep him vulnerable to soft stuff. It’s a small sample, but his 35 percent strikeout rate in 29 pro games should at least prompt some work on his weight transfer.
Spoiler 11. Joe Perez, 3B Age: 22 | 6-2 | 198 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Drafted: No. 53 in 2017 Perez was the Astros’ second-round pick in 2017 but entered last year with just 207 pro plate appearances due to Tommy John surgery and the pandemic. For him to come out last year and play a full season, at three levels, with a final composite line of .291/.354/.495, is in and of itself impressive – he had so little game experience, yet had 52 extra-base hits and more than held his own at Double A for the majority of his season. There’s work yet to do, as he is still not a very good defensive third baseman, and he needs to pick up some more strength for better durability through a full season. He has 60 game power already and at least projects as a low-.300s on-base percentage player with 20 homers, which would play at third base, with the chance that comes with regular playing time to improve his pitch recognition and maybe get that on-base percentage up into the average range. 12. Shawn Dubin, RHP Age: 26 | 6-1 | 171 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Drafted: No. 402 in 2018 Dubin missed two months with forearm inflammation but was effective in limited workloads in Triple A after his return. He continues to walk a few too many guys, but he’s kept the ball in the park and gets left- and right-handed hitters out. If his elbow and forearm are fine, he still has the stuff to be a back-end starter, even with his slighter frame. 13. Jordan Brewer, OF Age: 24 | 6-1 | 195 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Drafted: No. 106 in 2019 Brewer is athletic but inexperienced, with just one year of D1 baseball at Michigan and only 16 games in pro ball after he was drafted in 2019. The Astros sent him to Low A even though he was 21, recognizing that lack of reps and accounting for a minor injury that started his season a month late. He hit well but didn’t dominate like a 23-year-old should at that level, showing speed and some power but striking out 27 percent of the time against a lot of younger pitching. I was hoping he might go to the Fall League or perhaps to winter ball to get more playing time, because he’ll play at 24 this year and probably starts in High A. He’s still here because the pure athletic ability is too good to ignore. 14. Peter Solomon, RHP Age: 25 | 6-4 | 211 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Drafted: No. 121 in 2017 Solomon returned from COVID-19 protocol somewhat slowly but was back up to 94-96 mph in mid-summer before tapering back to 92-93 mph, which is what he showed in his big-league callup. He’s got a potential out pitch in his cutter/slider, and enough of a mix to potentially start, but he’s never really shown the command to do it, always getting by with 45 command and control because he had a couple of ways to get out of jams. I’d still give him a 20 percent chance to start, but he could help a team right now in relief. 15. Tyler Ivey, RHP Age: 26 | 6-4 | 195 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Drafted: No. 91 in 2017 Ivey missed most of 2021 with a recurrence of the elbow pain that popped up in 2019, although he still has not had to have surgery, and after four months of rest and rehab, he returned to make three minor-league appearances in September and October. He misses bats despite just fringy velocity thanks to huge deception from his high slot, which makes it very hard for hitters to distinguish his fastball from his downer curveball. It’s a funky delivery, and with his frequent elbow issues, he might need to just go to the bullpen and work with those two pitches. 16. Yainer Diaz, C Age: 23 | 6-0 | 195 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Diaz, acquired in the trade that sent Myles Straw to Cleveland, went bananas in the extreme hitter’s environment of Asheville after the trade, hitting 11 homers in 105 plate appearances after the Astros promoted him. He does hit the ball hard despite an unorthodox approach, with a slightly open stride but smooth swing he repeats well. He has a plus arm and the right build for a catcher, although he’s more of a fringy defender overall, enough to stay there as long as he hits. He could be a low-on-base percentage, 20-homer guy behind the plate, which starts on a lot of teams. 17. Jaime Melendez, RHP Age: 20 | 5-8 | 190 pounds Bats: Left | Throws: Right Melendez is listed at just 5-8 but he spins the heck out of everything, with above-average velocity and potential 55 pitches in the slider and curve. His changeup lags behind – not shocking for a guy who spins everything well to struggle with the pitch you don’t want to spin – and he has to improve his command and control, walking 13 percent of batters last year, but also because a 5-8 pitcher can be homer-prone unless he either sinks the ball heavily (Marcus Stroman) or becomes more precise with his location. He just turned 20 in September and should start this year in Double A. 18. Alex McKenna, OF Age: 24 | 6-2 | 204 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Drafted: No. 132 in 2018 McKenna is a 70 defender in center with power that’s pushing plus, but he just strikes out way too often – 34 percent last year, consistent from High A to Double A – to project as more than an up-and-down guy. On the plus side, this was power he’d never shown before, and it wasn’t just the product of playing in hitter-friendly Asheville. Right now he’s an up-and-down guy, just with two really intriguing tools. 19. Wilyer Abreu, OF Age: 23 | 6-0 | 217 pounds Bats: Left | Throws: Left Abreu is a plus defender in right with a tremendous throwing arm, and after a swing adjustment during the pandemic, he started hitting the ball a lot harder, although some of his offensive explosion last year was a function of a great home park in Asheville. It’s a bit of an unorthodox swing, raising concerns about his ability to make contact as he moves up. 20. Corey Julks, OF Age: 26 | 6-1 | 185 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Drafted: No. 241 in 2017 Julks made a swing adjustment before 2021 and saw a huge jump in power without any increase in his strikeout rate, hitting .287/.350/.491 as a 25-year-old in Double A. He’s a fringy defender in right, and given his age and build this is probably what he is, but he could also probably be someone’s fourth outfielder or bench piece right now. Others of note Shortstop Grae Kessinger, the team’s second-round pick in 2019, has made some swing adjustments in pro ball to try to get to some better-quality contact, but he was a cipher in Double A this year and remains a fringy defender at short. I’m keeping him alive, so to speak, to see if that contact quality leads to better results in 2022. 2022 impact Solomon, Ivey and Dubin should all see big-league time this year, probably in the bullpen for all three. If the Astros don’t bring back Carlos Correa, could they give Jeremy Peña a shot at the job? Shouldn’t they? The fallen Jayson Schroeder, the Astros’ second-round pick in 2018 and one of the only high school pitchers the Astros took in a single-digit round under GM Jeff Luhnow, walked 82 batters in 64.1 innings in A-ball last year, with 11 hit batsmen and 22 wild pitches. Sleeper Cristian Gonzalez has the right combination of tools and present skills for a teenager who might make a big leap in his next season.
This write-up for Peña doesn't make sense. It reads like Carlos Correa who swings the bat more, but ends with solid/average regular.
I liked Law’s write up. A lot to be excited about; great mix of floor and ceiling in that list. If this system currently has high-probability everyday players at C (Lee), SS (Pena), CF (Leon), and SP3 (Brown) along with a mix of very high ceiling guys (starting with Whitley), it’s hard to see it as one of the bottom 5 farms in baseball. I’m really excited for this minor league season. I think the Astros are going to make another reallly big step forward.
With a 70 glove I picture his outcomes as: .250-.260 hitter with ~15hr and a .720-.750 OPS. -- Solid/average overall player .270-.280 hitter with 20-25hr and an .800 OPS -- Star player .280-.290 hitter with 25-30 hr and .850+ OPS - All-star (basically Correa). Odds definitely favor him significantly regressing from his .311 ISO in AAA. If it drops to .200 and he maintains his avg, he's a star. If it drops to .150 he's a solid regular.
