The odds/combinations aren't always split evenly. Since the Rockets and OKC are currently tied for the 3rd and 4th positions, the 3rd position would have 140 combinations in the draft lottery and the 4th position would have 125. So if they tie, it would be 140+125 = 265 combinations they'd have to split. That can't be split evenly since (140+125)/2 = 132.5. What ends up happening is that a coin-flip is used to determine the final combination assignment instead. In other words, it determines who gets that final combination that can't be split. So for the 3rd and 4th positions instead of a 14% (140/1000 = .14) and 12.5% (125/1000 = .125) chance of getting the 1st pick in the draft for the 3rd and 4th positions, they'd have a 13.3% (133/1000 = .133) and 13.2% (132/1000 = .132) chance of getting the 1st pick in the draft respectively after that coin-flip assignment. You can actually see tankathon.com doing the new percentages in the event of a tie for 3rd and 4th @ https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds and in the image below.
The real difference is for the non-lottery pick. If neither team gets a top 4 pick, then the coin flip winner will most likely get the 5th or 6th pick to the other's 6th or 7th pick.
If the Spurs are going on 3 years with no playoffs, and being a well run and coached organization... I think it will be another 6 years before the Rockets make the playoffs as an 8th seed.
Strength of schedule remaining for top 3 pick contenders: Hou .509 Orl .504 Det .499 OKC .496 OKC and Det both have 2 remaining games against Orlando. I think we probably want Orlando to lose out from here (or at least lose these "key" matchups). We are blessed with the most difficult remaining schedule - an important back to back against NOP on 7 and 9th Feb could go a long way towards determining our final position. Hopefully by then we have moved whichever players we are moving, and can play short-handed...
Seriously - with a young athletic team, the best scenario is to develop them offensively and hope to have a horrible defense so you can tank and get a high pick.
The problem is they are well run in so many respects. Can't suck enough, and now devoid of top tier talent, can't be good enough. Makes you wonder what they're plan is.
What is everyone dream draft? Personally I would like Chet or Jabari for the top 3 pick(hopefully #1) and Jovic for the later pick.
One dream scenario is Jabari plus getting AJ Griffin at #5 when the unprotected pick swap from the SAC trade backfires on them.
Dream scenario is Holmgren at 3 or 4 and then we move up big time for Ivey. Sengun/Theis/Garuba KMJ/Holmgren Christopher/Tate Green/Matthews Ivey/Nix Next year
