Chad Ford's Re-drafting the Lottery Picks from the 2021 NBA Draft

Lavine right now is an all star caliber player but he isn't great, and isn't a franchise player.

That's why its really hard for a player to be great when all they can do is score and shoot.

FWIW Green has higher upside than Lavine, Green has far better court vision and situational awareness. Green is also a better athlete from left to right.

 

Sorry, but first step isn't over rated....... it is one of the absolutely best measures for future success of a player. It gives huge leeway for players to score or create.

 

No, it is not, there are tons of slow guys like Sam Cassell who could change speeds and directions - a quick first step is nice, Steve Francis had it, Russ Westbrook has it, but if you can't shoot a jumper players lay off you and pack the lane.....and you are done as a threat.

DD

 

This is true, it can be an awesome thing to have, but if you can't do anything with it, then it's worthless.

It's kind of like having amazing post moves would be worthless if you are 5-8 and scrawny.

I think the argument was that having that kind of first step is a piece, but a piece is nothing by itself. If you have an oar, that's an awesome thing to have if you have a boat.....but if you're out in the middle of the ocean with ONLY an oar.....yikes.

Right now, Green can get by his defender fairly often, but he can't do anything with it most of the time. Right now his best "move" is just going straight up and hoping he gets fouled instead of cleanly blocked at the rim or turning the ball over.

It's something to build on for sure, but right now his first step and speed is almost worthless except for in transition where he can get to the rim with no one back guarding it.

Of course, he's just 19 and he currently has no bag. Given time, I fully expect him to learn a bit of craftiness so that his first step isn't wasted.

 

I disagree with this.

The greats have a quick 1st step but also great body control or strength, and the top level both.


There have been plenty of guys who have had great 1st steps but can't finish, and once the word gets out, it does not matter how great that 1st step is.

He is either gonna have to be very creative like Kyrie or put on strength, hopefully both even Trae can finish pretty well around the basket.

 

Green is interesting.

So if a player doesn't defend well, doesn't especially rebound well and is a sub par defender; then they are going to be limited and cusp at being a franchise player, but not really be a franchise player...... that leaves high end being someone like Dominique Wilkins.

As for Jalen Green, there is a chance that he becomes a creator for others, he has better court vision than players like Lavine or Wilkins or even a Reggie Miller. I just don't think that we should assume he WILL develop that.

What Green so far has that will go a long way is a very strong work ethic.

Someone asked me what is a median outcome for Green is..... it is D'Angelo Russell... lets hope he is better than that.

 

Redrafts after half a season suggests that NBA writers are lacking for content.

 

Mostly but better athlete in what..... Lavine is a 2x Dunk champion, dude is only much quicker because he has not bulked up yet.

 

If Green would still go top 5 right now he needs to be traded immediately before his trade value declines.

 

You and I agree for the most part. Having a great first step isn't enough. However, most players with a great first step eventually become good offense players because they piece enough other skills to utilize their first step. A first step like Green gives him a lot of leeway. You couple the athleticism, the hard work that Green does and the hand dexterity; and there is a pretty good chance he figures it out.

To be clear, I wouldn't have take Green at #2. I had him as the 4th best player in this draft and I still think that will be true.

Green has a mediocre body. He isn't very wide, he isn't long and he isn't especially tall. However he will get stronger and his body control isn't bad. His issue is right now he is adverse to contact and doesn't have the strength to finish plays through it.

The vast majority of players that have a first step like Jalen Green end up being good offensive players in the NBA. A lot of those that didn't develop where poor workers. It isn't a guarantee of success, but it is a very high marker from a scouting stand point. A quick first step covers for a lot of short comings.

As far as body control, Green seems fine with body control. Right now his biggest issue is a complete lack or core strength and an inability to finish plays through physical contact. Green is never going to be Harden or Bryant or Wade when it comes to strength. However, he will get stronger and that will improve his ability to finish a great deal. He is lucky that he plays in 2022 and not 1992, because he legitimately would likely never be strong enough to play at a high level in that era.

Green being a hard worker is a big part of this as well.

I am not saying that Green is going to be a franchise player.... but from a raw physical skill set, he has the pieces and they are good enough to succeed in the NBA. He really needs to work on a number of things, but most of those can be improved. I felt he was raw watching him in the G-League. He has a soft touch but inconsistent mechanics.... he doesn't trust his handle enough and he is poor at handling contact........ luckily those can be fixed.

 

I think his shooting accuracy is currently his down fall, he gets a ton of open 3 looks, if he even makes it at a average percentage, he wouldn't be looking so bad this season.

 

Yeah, I take exception to #3, he has not demonstrated "shooting accuracy" at all. He's shooting 29% from 3 when it comes to open and wide open shots (defined as shots taken with the closest defender 4 feet or further from him)....hell he's below 40% on open and wide open 2 point shots greater than 10 feet from the rim.

The kid can be streaky, have fluke games where he just can't miss, but the norm right now is a guy who can't shoot.

Maybe he'll improve from a streaky shooter to a good shooter one day, but right now, he is not a quality shooter at all.

 

Green is quicker, and Green moves better sideways.

Lavine is a fantastic athlete in a straight line and from a vertical standpoint but he doesn't move sideways well at all and that limits him on offense and defense. Steve Francis was the same way in that sense. Green also has better natural court vision as well.

I'm not captain of the Jalen Green fan club.... I don't like his length or frame and felt he wasn't the can't miss prospect everyone seemed to think he was.

 

I just don't see 1, he has not had many freaky plays this far into the season, Morant and Edwards had way more freaky plays at this point thier rookie years.

If he has that much dedication and drive, why does he still have so many flaws in his game?

He has had professional coaching for over a year.

Shooting accuracy? UM what? He is shooting under 40% on 2's and under 30 on 3's he has had many off nights than on nights.

I have no idea what you think you are seeing.

 

because he's 19 years old.

 

It happens every year about this time, and just look at how it has driven conversation.

 

We are having two separate conversations.

I never said a player without a quick first step couldn't be productive, there is more than one way to be good.

Also I never said that a player only needs a first step, what I said is that a great first step is a major indicator of success, because it gives a player a larger margin for error and most players with elite first steps are able to piece together other skills to succeed.

Also there have been a number of players that were poor shooters that had great first steps and have been extremely successful in the NBA. The one that really sticks out off the top of my head is Rod Strickland. He had an incredible first step and couldn't throw a basketball in the ocean.

Having said that, Green has a larger margin for error because of his natural skill set... with his work ethic and touch, he has a good likelihood of being a good player.

 

What does that have to do with dedication and drive?

Either he has it or he does not.

So either he can't get any better from a skill level, or he has not been working as hard as people thought.

Being 19 has nothing to do with his jump shot or working to make it better.

 

which is the point, i suppose. I just don't take it very seriously or find it very predictive.