Chad Ford's Re-drafting the Lottery Picks from the 2021 NBA Draft

Maybe, but it's hard to understate just how terrible he's been. I think a lot of teams would see that and opt for less of a gamble with a pick that valuable.

 

I think GMs will crunch the numbers on production so far and go in that order.
Darko, RAPTOR, WAR, BPM etc...
Job security.
"Mr owner here's the analytics; we went with what the best of the best metrics told us. Not our fault at all."

 

You're fine. I appreciated the read. Was thinking of starting a re-draft thread last week, since it was mid-season report card time. An official article is much easier to start the conversation. Folks don't have to agree with his exact spots, that's what make the conversation interesting.

 

This is a very well thought out re-draft - pretty spot on.

DD

 

Yeah, Thorpe was the one really high on Mobley and Barnes, and he is a skills coach so it isn't surprising. Thorpe was high on Barnes because his son plays with him in college.

Ford KNEW Mobley was the second best player in this draft but he was talked out of it and over thought it. Same with Barnes. As I said, I like him personally but he lets outside pressure get to him sometimes.

Objectively Green clearly was not "the most NBA ready" as others said and them Ford parroted. Anyone that watched Mobley could tell he made few mistakes and had a high skill level. Physically Mobley was also the second most impressive player in the draft behind Barnes. Yet Ford started talking about the shooting and skill level or Green and his measurables. The reality is that Green never had good physical measurables. He is short, he has short arms and he has a bad frame. What he did have was an incredible first step straight ahead, an exceptional all world vertical and appeared to have good hand dexterity and a soft touch but streaky shot.

Now, Ford is making a mistake again. Someone with Green's profile will start slow. His ball handling needs work and his shoot form has been changed. He also physically is struggling to finish in traffic because he is so weak. He will NEVER be long, but he will get strong enough and with his hand dexterity he will be able to put the ball on the floor and finish. His court vision is also better than expected, but likely not good enough to be a combo guard.

Add all that up and you likely will have a high scoring, efficient shooting guard that can handle the point in certain line ups. That isn't a franchise player but a perennial all star.

 

Chad Ford is one of the 5 top draft prognosticators in the media.

You didn't do anything wrong...... I follow Chad Ford.

 

I don't see how anyone think Green being top 5 in two years is a no brainer, he has a lot of flaws in his game that are not guaranteed to be fixed.

His jumpshot is especially troubling his shooting motion is not good, and he seems to be regressing to the form he started the season with.

I am not out on Green but the NBA is littered with smaller SG's that didn't pan out.

I just wish I would see something in his game that was exceptional.

 

Great write-up!
Ford has always been hype-follower, never trusted his analysis. I remember when he was buying the peak Euro trend in early 2000s. The "jaw-drop potential of Nikolos Tsikshvilli" That was all Chad Ford.

thoughts on Green are spot-on. Speed, jumping ability, acrobatics, hang-time + hand dexterity has gotta translate into production one day.

However, I think you're underestimating how much the complete lack of production so far would scare GMs in a potential re-draft today.

 

Basically, he's re-drafting based on their current stats. Very deep analysys.

 

I will say, seeing how the league has increased the physicality allowed makes me consider dropping him down a spot or two. He does have a pretty average, at best NBA frame. However, if the reports about the work ethic are accurate, he can certainly more than over come that.

Maybe we see a floater start to emerge after the offseason.

 

Cade is the best player in the draft. I will die on this hill.

Green is eh, although I still rate him potential wise with Barnes and the rest. Barnes is a little too raw on offense for my liking, hes just very phyiscally dominant and very smart.

 

Let’s check back when the rookie deals are done - 4 years. Hopefully Green will have filled out his body with some lean muscle and found several “GO-TO” spots on the floor offensively.

 

That is the hope - usually though, the 4 years thing is reserved for players drafted much lower.....which I think is most of the angst.

DD

 

I may be confusing him with another ex-ESPN writer but wasn't Chad Ford peddling anti-vaxing sentiment on twitter not too long ago and sympathizing with the "courage" of Kyrie? Seems like I saw that a few weeks back but that would be hundreds of twitter posts back from Ford's timeline at this point.

....fwiw, I would still take Cade #1 in a redraft. Mobley & Barnes both are GREAT players but they also both get a fairly big bump being on teams that have real talent around them while Houston and Detroit both are really at square one of their rebuild efforts which colors the perception of most people who can't be bothered to watch losing teams play like Houston and Detroit. Cleveland in particular has been stockpiling lotto talent for a few years now and are starting to see the year 3/4 "jump" where young players start to put it together which probably has just as much to do with their team success as Mobley's play. Also gotta credit Cleveland for acquiring Allen because having TWO young switchable, mobile shot blockers who can play at the same time is the real reason their defense has shut down the paint at a historic rate.

I also tend to agree that Green wouldn't get past 4th or 5th pick at the very most in a redraft(depending on how you feel about Giddey's ceiling). The hope with Green is he would become an athletic combo guard at best and a pure scorer who potentially leads the league in scoring at worst and I don't think anything has changed there except maybe that people are starting to take the under - he still has the quickest first step in the game, elite athleticism, and creative ways to create space for his shot. Adding strength to his frame, working on the consistency of his shot, and maybe continued development of footwork and ball handling will turn him into a 24pt/game scorer sooner rather than later and even if he doesn't develop the ability to make more advanced reads, he is STILL going to get 4-5 assist a game just by virtue of always finding ways to force the defense to help on him because of that first step because he does normally find the first help defender's man even at this stage. I don't think anyone is turning down a guy who will be averaging 24/4 four years from now except maybe for Cade/Mobley/Barnes potential to get double doubles and their value on both sides of the ball.

 

if someone cant do a proper redraft how to trust their draft then?

 

Barnes over Cade? Lol

Chad Ford is the same guy who has been caught readjusting his draft after all the results come out

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ively-change-his-nba-draft-prospect-rankings/

 

We got the 8 and 9 picks

JC has also shown great promise, it’s very possible we ended up with 3 lottery worthy picks in this draft. Green was over rated but that’s still an overall very good haul for a single draft

 

It isn't a no brainer that he WILL be top 5, anything can happen.... BUT what Ford said is that Green could be top 5 if he plays better.... and that is a no brainer.

However, if the lottery were held again tomorrow, Green would go in the top 5 because he still have a lot of upside.

As far as what he does exceptional? He has one of the 5 quickest first steps in the league and there is a really high correlation between that and eventual success. He also has an insane in game vertical and he gets off the ground really fast. That means less to me than his first step, but it is still a positive.

FWIW I am one of the only ones, but I think that he has very good dexterity in his hands, which will make a huge difference when he gets better at handling the ball; he will be able to cross people over and utilize his first step. He should at a minimum be a better version of Lou Williams and he is likely going to be an elite scorer if he stays healthy.

A lot of people said I was hating on Jalen Green, and I wasn't. What I said before the draft is that guys like Mobley and Barnes and Cunningham play defense well and have the physical attributes to be top defenders in the league. Also, all three are true creators........ Green on the other hand isn't a creator for others, MAYBE some day he could become a combo guard and defensively he would likely top out at average. So in order for Green to be better than Barnes and Mobley, he better be a top 5 scorer in the league. Now I don't know that he will ever be a top 5 scorer, but he has shown enough for me to believe he will scorer at least 20 a game at his peak if he stays healthy. Remember, he has a very strong work ethic.

As far as Green and his shooting, he is physically weak and I suspect worn down as well. He doesn't have a man's body like Barnes or Cunningham. He works hard, he has a soft touch and good hand dexterity - he will likely improve as a shooter. My concern is that he doesn't rebound or do much else at this point. With his athleticism, in his prime he should rebound better - but it is a concern.