Not a talent scout but is #2 draft pick supposed to have single digit PER?

I thought @JCDenton was one of those accident lawyers you saw on TV

 

Yes!!!!! Jalen is ahead of:
Tre Mann 9.46
Trey Murphy 8.53
Rondo 8.52
Suggs 8.44
Michael Porter jr 7.99
Rodney Hood 7.58
Harmless 6.53
Bazemore 6.50
Ziare Williams 6.37
Austin Rivers 5.86
Michael Porter jr

http://insider.espn.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/page/7

 

Typical ClutchFans making personal attacks at OP for asking a legit question. JG was my choice and I have high hopes for him. I’d like to see him succeed but he’s been quite underwhelming to be honest. I don’t get this notion of “oh I’m not worried at all he’s a lock to be a future super star”. Yes, he’s super athletic, fast, and jumps really high and? He’s got a long ways to go.

 

Ditto, he was supposed to be the most NBA ready, that is just not true, his handles are average at best, his awareness is lacking on both ends, but particularly on defense, and his shooting is spotty/streaky (to be expected).

However, number 2 picks - you hope for players like Durant, and Ja Morant - any of the "Rant"s.......and so far he is looking like he is a box of maybes instead of sure things.

Just lump him in with the rest I guess.

DD

 

One reason I personally preferred Green over Mobley was because I was sold on the idea that JG would be better equipped to handle struggles during development. I was kind of sold on the fact that if both guys struggled to begin with, then Green would eventually be able to handle it, while Mobley might get crushed under the weight of expectations. Obviously because Mobley has started on fire, he's made the question a bit moot. Of course I'd love it if JG was also starting out on a similar pace and setting the league on fire, but I can't really jump ship now while he's struggling if the thing that I liked the most about him was the belief that he was the best equipped to deal with the struggle and still excel.

And just to emphasize your point about how the truly great ones can improve their shot over time, here's your daily reminder:

As a Rookie: Chris Paul shot 28% from 3. Kevin Durant shot 29%. Lonzo Ball was at 36%/30% with mechanics that made everyone on twitter an armchair shot doctor.

As a 3rd year player: 36%/37% for Steve Nash.

As a 4th year player: Kyle Lowry was at 39%/27%.

Obviously, it's not saying that JG is guaranteed to become a superstar because he's sucking shooting the ball right now. He's got a ton of work to put in right now, and odds are against him. But if you want to build a dynasty, as you said, this is the way; you have to bet on your high draft pick not leading to wins for awhile so you can get multiple bites at the apple and build out a core. You have to get exceedingly lucky with extensions; not enough is made of the fact that Curry dealt with a ton of ankle injuries in his third year, allowing GSW to tank and for them to sign him to a 5-year, $44M extension. Eventually, they get to use the extra money to extend Klay Thompson and Draymond Green without needing to risk them hitting free agency, and staying below the luxury tax. Harden had an incredible year, went to the finals, and signed for nearly double the same money after being traded to Houston. Imagine what OKC looks like if Harden plays like he did against Miami in the first round instead, and is entering his extension year with a playoff flop on his resume. Maybe he then stays in OKC on a low-ball offer, and the landscape of the NBA is changed forever.

Maybe the Rockets are heading in the Kings direction, and maybe JG is just not the guy. But I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet on him.

 

Every single one of those players had way better handles.....ALL of them.

DD

 

That's because 4 of the 5 listed are point guards, and Durant is arguably the greatest scorer of all time.

In addition, the only thing that matters is improvement, and handles can be improved upon just like any other skill. This is Green's scouting report.

Anyone that watches the game now would notice Green attempts and converts a significant number of lay ups with his left hand. He probably attempted more off-hand layups so far than Harden has in any season with Houston.

Why anyone thinks a 19 year old teenager can't improve is beyond me.

 

Maybe KPJ’s tantrum will be this "blessing in disguise"?

 

Wasn't Rafael Stone a lawyer accidentally turning GM?

 

A good point however improvement does not equal ever being elite at it.

The Rockets would need some elite skills to go back into contention again, badly.

That is saying, he is far from being a bust, now everyone be relieved, it is not like that.

The perception of a Number 2 draft pick is going to slide regardless.

 

So you are saying JC Denton is Rafael Stone?

 

No offense, but I'm not going to take advice on how to project players from a poster that has an absolutely horrible track record of projecting, well, everything basketball related.

The entire point of projecting a player's career is to project it before it happens, not years later after even the most basic simpleton can tell who the right player to draft was.

Green is objectively losing the Rockets a lot of basketball, regardless of what stat you look at, or professional scout you ask. To improve to even Mobleys level at this point is, historically, a VERY low probability, which is why we can say that he's likely to underperformed his draft position.

If you don't understand how probability works (or advanced stats for that matter) that's great, but at least do everyone a favor and keep your advice to yourself.

 

Denton wants to be Raf but Raf is a silent son of a gun.

 

If you have a great work ethic it needs to be built on a foundation of fundamentals.

He is lacking ball handling - which is a major thing he needs to work on....

DD

 

There's plenty evidence of his ball handling being fine. I (based on your horrendous track record) am extremely skeptical of your ability to evaluate talent.

 

Please tell me how probability works.

 

He’s only 19. He’s going to get better. He does need a considerable amount of work, but his game will mature as he gets stronger and more experienced, but only if he is willing to put in the work. That’s going to be the key for him. If he is mature enough to fight for it, I am not worried about him at all, and I think that he will be.

 

Hey, I know a PG making $40+ million this year with a PER of 0.

 

Well Durant shot .288 from 3 his rookie year. Devin Booker’s PER his rookie year was 11.9. And then again promising players like Okafor or MCW never panned out despite strong rookie seasons. Are these indicators of how the player will be? I think you are over reacting especially when the season hasn’t even ended. Many members on this board and analysts have seen his progression in shot selection and patience. His quickness and ability to get to the hoop is special. Yes we know there’s things he needs to work on including upper body strength, making contact with opponents in the paint, and using the dribble drive to make more plays etc. But that’s part of the journey that he is in control of. So just relax and wait.

 

What exactly does handle have to do with just improving basic shot making skill? I'm not going to pretend that right now he's helping wins on the court, any hope right now is honestly going to bet on him being a legendary off-court worker, very similar to the players I named. The odds aren't great right now, but what else exactly am I gonna cheer for as a Rocket fan for the next couple years? If Lonzo Ball can go from being one of the single worst shooters I've seen in my lifetime with absolutely no hope of being able to develop a pull-up going to his right, to a 42% 3pt% sniper on 7 attempts per game, then JG still has a chance to be special.

The off-season is when you learn new skills, in-season, you learn what works and what doesn't, and the best in-season improvements come from discarding the stuff that doesn't work and spamming the stuff that does. Adding strength/weight during the season is similarly a fools errand. Too much travel, and everyone is playing through some kind of injury. Last thing you want is a guy trying to bulk up while also messing up their shot and putting them at high chance of getting seriously hurt. JG ain't where he needs to be right now and he's not gonna get there with what he has in his bag. What most posters here right now are seeing if he has that mental game to get the most out of his skills now.

I am still targeting 2023-24 as the make or break point for the entire rookie class, when they're all up for extensions, or could be involved as sweeteners in a S&T during the summer if they're not part of the future core. It sucks to have to keep pushing back the rebuild window; at times it feels like a piece of vaporware like Duke Nukem Forever or Star Citizen that is eternally going to be completed "soon". But I'm not quite ready to say they need to start all over. Talk to me next year if he comes back from the summer and isn't on a good trajectory, and I just might join your side.

Didn't exactly want to bring up KPJ in a Green thread, but it has definitely crossed my mind a bit. I'd be scared like hell to extend him right now, but KPJ on a $10M - $15M /year contract and playing up to his potential is one of those moves that has a cascading effect on who you are able to fit in as a max superstar in free-agency in the summer of 2023. KPJ on the same deal and being waived because of his personal demons is a move that might prevent you from making the leap from play-in contender to HCA.

I call it good luck, but I give a ton of credit to the Warriors for having faith in Curry after his ankles were looking like glass in his 3rd year. Same with Embiid and Philly. You have to have great management and great timing.