I prefer Joe not run, we need a fresh start from an up and coming Dem but I have no clue who that would be. Years ago I thought it was Beto but that ship has sailed......Harris has had a rough first year and as much as I would like Michelle O would be great but why would she want this and as good of a story it would be I dont see this happening. 2024 is right around the corner and we need someone to start rising in the party and be a force. I think Trump or Desantos will get the GOP nod and they are going to be tough to overcome........the next campaign will be lies and falsehoods from the GOP and we need someone who will go toe to toe in debates and be a strong advocate for the dems. I fear we will lose the majority of the house and senate and then the presidency and then it will be a free for all with our rights.
A few thoughts: I don't think Biden was ever going to say otherwise about his re-election until the mid-terms were done. No reason to rock that boat and chance making things worse. Regardless of where things stand today, Biden's numbers are very likely to tick back up to the water level as we near 2024. That being said, if Trump is running again (he almost certainly is and would win that nomination), there's no way Biden is considered a favorite. The American people have short memories and that election would have such historic low turnout I think it would be a very tough road for Biden back to the Presidency. If Biden steps away, they still have to deal with the Kamala problem. She's historically unpopular and could not win in virtually any scenario. It would be a lot more convenient to shuttle her into some role elsewhere rather than her entering a primary. Unfortunately any role requiring Congressional approval is going to be impossible after the mid-terms. If it does end up an open primary, barring some really unforeseen developments, I think we can absolutely expect Pete, Amy, and some random billionaire to be the last in the field. None inspire great confidence, but they probably out perform Joe.
I don’t think a Trump/Biden rematch would have a low turnout. Although, I do realize that the Republicans are trying to make it harder to vote, so you may be right. I have no idea who would win.
I'm guessing that in 2.75 years we can expect that the Pandemic and Supply Chain crisis will have subsided. If things are just baseline miserable and not hyper miserable, I can see super low turnout. 2020 as a campaign was fairly boring/uneventful. I can imagine 2024 being even worse. If sports is any indicator, a rematch would draw a bunch of shrugs.
I can agree with a lot of your analysis except for this. I think Trump himself would remind people of what things were like during his Presidency. He's going to be doing the same things that turned most Americans against him, including insulting his primary opponents. He's going to be saying so many obvious untruths about his presidency that it will remind just how chaotic things were. That doesn't mean he couldn't win. As you state he could win a low turnout election but he's likely going to lose the popular vote yet again. Also don't discount the power of incumbency. Incumbents are so rarely defeated because there is an inertia to just voting for the person in office. If it comes to Biden versus Trump in 2024 barring anything unusual, like another pandemic, I would call it a tossup.
You have much more faith in the American people than I do. If Trump can win in 2016, he can absolutely win in 2024 (which could arguably be more favorable to him depending on who he is facing). We've seen America forgive and mostly forget before. Everything stupid or horrid Trump did prior to COVID has practically been wiped from memory already... but even with all those things, if COVID doesn't happen, Trump wins in 2020... so it's hard to imagine 2024 being a tougher road for him given that 2020 was so disasterous for him and he still almost won. Outside of a re-elected incumbent scenario, we may never see a Republican win the popular vote again. That's the territory we're at now. I'm discounting it without any hesitation unless things swing wildly in Biden's favor over the next 2~ years. Trump is arguably more in the public consciousness right now than the sitting President (while being banned from all social media!). That's unheard of and largely why incumbency is so powerful but potentially not a factor in this hypothetical.
Trump doesn’t need to win the popular vote, just ask Hillary MAGA trash is currently fine-tuning their election turnover strategy just in case
I honestly think Trump not being on Twitter is helping him. He's an outsider with limited reach which in his case is a good thing. Once he's in the spotlight as the Republican nominee we will start seeing a lot more "Oh yeah he was terrible". Also it being Trump he's going to make the election less a referendum on Biden and a referendum on his Presidency including calls that the election was stolen. Yes Trump lost a close race in 2020 and he won a close race in 2016. I would expect another close race but given incumbency and Trump's own personality I don't think it's a guaranteed Trump win.
food for thought. in 2006, Orange hair was the outsider against the establishment candidates Jeb, Cruz, Marco, Fatso in the primary, and then Hilary should he run in 2014, it would not be as easy. his opponents can/will pick apart his record, as the POTUS, of little accomplishment and many failures (no border wall, ObamaCare is still intact, a needless trade war that ended up hurting Americans more. etc) add to it, more details of his actions / inactions to destroy the American democracy will come out, via the 6 Jan Commission. Jan. 6 committee asks Ivanka Trump to give voluntary testimony in the letter to Ivanka, The committee said it has evidence that she was "in direct contact" with her father on the day of the insurrection
You realize his record 2016-2019 was all public knowledge in 2020 and Trump barely lost, right? Jan 6 is not going so sink the SS Trump. This is navel gazing.
in addition to winning the popular vote by more than 6 million, the largest ever in US history, Biden won the electoral votes by a solid majority, 306 to Trump’s 232. a winning margin w more than 10% above the minimum electoral votes does not a close win make
I tend to agree with all of this. In the last point, I think Pete would be the best option to face off against Trump, but the white guy factor works against him and I don't know that being Transportation Secretary is helping with his glaring weaknesses (connecting with minority voters). I think Dems also have a flashing-red Hispanic voter problem that I don't know how they fix without either a charismatic Hispanic candidate or a machismo male nominee (to win back of the strongman-appeal vote), neither of which seem likely. I really hope whatever happens, whether in 2024 or 2028, Kamala is never a "default" option and has to win a legit primary (which I don't think she can do).
Despite that, a flip in 0.32% of the popular vote nationally would have given Trump the election by flipping 3 states. That's a margin of error type win where bad weather or a gaffe a few days before the election or whatnot could have flipped the vote.
thank you for corroborating my point. Trump, the incumbent, needing to flip 3 more states in order to win, this underscores how comfortable the challenger's victory was
Why would Trump be considered a favorite over Biden? Why would there be a low tournout with Trump on the ballot, do you not think that would energize democrats and turn off the same Republicans who voted against him. What metrics are you basing these assumptions on?
You seem math-challenged. # of states is irrelevant since voting trends are not state-specific - votes needed to turn the election is and Biden was at 0.33%. In 2004, Bush won the EC by a much smaller margin of 286 to 256. Kerry would also have need to flip 3 states to win, but would have needed a shift of over 1% nationally to do it. Biden's win was much narrower and much closer to being affected by random luck. On the flipside, Obama in 2012 won by a smaller popular vote margin than Biden 2020, but Romney would have had to flip the popular vote by over 2.5% to win the election. Besides 2000 (which needed a flip of 0.005%), 2020 was the closest election in recent memory.
Democrats didn't win because Democrats turned out - the GOP turned out in similar numbers (or actually bigger than expected) and offset that. I suspect partisans on both sides will turn out again. But Biden won because independents picked him and also turned out in big numbers. But if there's Covid-malaise and other things, independents now will judge Biden on his record and not simply "get rid of the incumbent". People were voting "Against Trump" last time. Next election, some of those will be voting "Against Biden" and others will hate both of them and not vote. It's the same reason Obama did worse in 2012 than 2008, despite McCain really being a stronger and more likeable candidate than Romney. In 2008, many independents were voting against Bush. They flipped to voting against Obama in 2012 because he had a track record - this group is generally conservative but persuadable independents.
You guys can't keep sticking your heads in the sand about this. If Trump wins AZ, GA, and WI, he wins the entire thing. You know what Biden's margin of victory was for those combined 3 states? 42,918 That's it. A margin of about two one hundredths of a percent between victory and defeat.
