Nook's 2022 Draft Big Board

I have always been a big fan of the NBA draft, and young upcoming basketball players. The sport is extremely projectible compared to most sports. With COVID I have had an opportunity to follow and study the amateur players more closely, especially with the Rockets have high draft picks for the first time in years.

Below are my personal rankings as of 1-10-22. I have watched 90% of these players play, and those that I haven't seen multiple games of, I have seen a fair amount of film on them.

I don't like simple numeric lists, I prefer tiers but will list them as that is what most people prefer.

1. Chet Holmgren C
Still have a very high ceiling and overall has played very well as a freshman. Has had to play with a ball dominant post player next to him. Defensively he is the elite of the elite and will be an all defensive type player. Does all of the little things well and communicates very well. Teams are starting to value the players that make few mistakes and play hard. That fits Chet to perfection. His weight concerns are valid but over blown. A team that takes him has to understand that his scoring make take a few years to come around. He is someone that has the upside of changing how the game is played, the down side if he stays healthy is a role player as a scorer and an excellent defender, at his position that is still an all star.
2. AJ Griffin SG/SF
The most overall talented and polished player in this draft. He has few weaknesses. He only played 12 games of high school basketball after his sophmore season. He is very young (will be 18 on draft day). He has an awesom body and is a strong 6'6" with a wingspan over 7'0". He comes from arguably the best basketball family in the world. His sister is an elite player in college, his other brother is playing professionally and he has a number of others in his family playing at a high level. His dad is an NBA coach and former player. A.J. learned the NBA game at a very early age. He is strong and long and smart. He can defend all 5 positions and has All NBA Defense upside. He is a very efficient offensive player that is an under rated passer and shooter. Need rebounds? He can do that too. He is just a winner, and as long as he remains. As long as he remains healthy he will be a 15 year pro with franchise player upside. Most places have Griffin in the 10-12 range, I think he is possibly the best player in this draft.
3. Jabari Smith SF/PF
He is the safest player at the top of this draft. He is long, his high steal frequency shows he has quick hands and has the upside of being a good defender and possibly more if he works on his body. He will be able to switch with ease. Offensively he is an excellent shooter that can take and make in volume. He is learning to come off of screens well. His ball handling is only meh, but he can improve somewhat. He will be appealing to a lot of teams because of the high ceiling.
4. Jaden Ivey COMBO
Best athlete in the draft with an ability to explode to the basket and plays very well with contact. His numbers are lower than they will be in the NBA because the spacing he has at Perdue is a joke. Defensively he has high upside with his wingspan and quickness. He is still developing as a playmaker, but is going to end up as a ball dominant combo guard most likely. Considered a hard worker and good person.
5. Paolo Banchero PF/C
With Paolo there is a lot to like. You get what you see with him. A strong body and acceptable measurables. He has all star potential and is a work horse.
6. Johnny Davis SG
Solid athlete that can stop on a dime and has great body control. Very crafty player that loves to compete. His upside is a top scoring shooting guard.
7. Kendall Brown SF
Lots of upside, and a very good athlete. He is still developing but the measurables are still there.
8. Kegan Murray SF?
Highly productive, strong but with limited upside compared to some other players on this list.
9. JD Davidson PG
Has the potential to be a long term starter. A little raw at this point but has the ability to be a real quality starter on a playoff team.
10. Nikola Jovic PF/C
Lazy, moody and immature but a very skilled and gifted player. If he matures he can be a real weapon in the NBA for a long time.
11. TyTy Washington PG
Quick and has a good feel for the game. Has Ty Lawson vibes.
12. Benedict Mathurin SG
Sometimes looks like a 10 year NBA starter and other times looks like aG-League washout.
13. Dyson Daniels SG
All the tools are there for an Eric Gordon type career but questions linger about his maturity.
14. Jean Montero PG
Have only seen film of him but looks strong and has physical upside.

 

Just bad decisions all the way around by him. He may well turn out to be a productive player as a role player in the NBA... I just think there is limited appeal for what he does. He will likely come out early, but he would be better suited spending another year in college showing that he can do the things needed in the modern game. He doesn't really have the skill set of someone that is a starter in the NBA.

 

Jovic is someone that a lot of scouts in Europe think highly of from a talent and ability perspective. In general the scouting from Europe has been solid and better than the NBA scouting of Europe has been.... I believe it is because scouts in Europe watch more NBA games than NBA scouts watch the European game. With the rule changes over the last 15 years, we have seen the differences between the two places decrease as far as style of play. The European game in general has also become more athletic with a lot of the kids in Europe seeing Europeans do well in the NBA and believe they can thrive in a similar style.

 

He is a very intriguing player that is starting to perform at a high level with very little experience and at a very young age.

He was injured at the end of his junior season in high school, he sat out his senior season and stayed working out with his dad and other NBA type coaches. Then when he started practicing at Duke, he got hurt and that slowed him down. Now he is healthy and is starting to really show how good he is. He is capable of being a lot better as well as he really hasn't shown his ability to drive to the basket and create for other. He is someone that coaches will love having on the court. Very well educated, very well coached and has been surrounded by the game at a level few get... It's not just his dad, but his entire family and it is just their culture. Outside of a really messy divorce by his dad a couple years ago, there has been few distractions for Griffin and his family.

He reminds me of Grant Hill, Danny Granger and Jimmy Butler.... but he has a higher upside than Butler and Granger. He isn't quite the passer Hill was, and he is a couple inches shorter (but is still growing). He has a lot of the marker that elite franchise players like Duncan, Robinson, Curry, Hill and Kobe had.

 

I don't have any proof other than what I hear from some around that program - but I am convinced there is shady stuff going on there. Also I don't think Penny is an especially good coach. He has had talent and he hasn't won and kids that should still be there have transferred away. The potential is obviously there but it always looks like Hardaway just rolls the ball out several times a week and tells them to play.