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Davis Mills - From not to hot

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by Two Sandwiches, Sep 19, 2021.

  1. HardenVolumeOne

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    lance zierlen literally gave lawrence a jameis winston comparison and then removed it from nfl.com. Trevor lawrence this year has been below average and has not been as advanced as lawrence, lawrences mobility has no translated to the nfl. Winston is also harder to sack than lawrence. Lawrence is overhyped, he rarely if ever had to make full-field reads at clemson
     
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  2. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member
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    And? He’s still not the prospect in the league that Luck was. Lawrence is yet to see
     
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  3. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member
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    Lawrence is way faster and way stronger arm.
    Lawrence comp was actually Watson.
     
  4. HardenVolumeOne

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  5. HardenVolumeOne

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    lawrence comp was not fast, and his comp was jameis winston from lance zierlen till it was removed by the website for whatever reason

    https://www.nfl.com/prospects/trevor-lawrence/32004c41-5751-4099-56fc-f565c8d26c06

    trevor lawrence mysteriously doesnt have a comparison on his draft profile from nfl.com lol
     
  6. Buck Turgidson

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    You forgot to mention:

    77 starts, 91 interceptions, 52 fumbles, 182 sacks, 4.2 YPC

    79 starts, 71 interceptions, 71 fumbles , 267 sacks, 4.4 YPC

    QB2 is David Carr, btw
     
    #766 Buck Turgidson, Jan 11, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2022
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  7. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member
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    Huh?
    On NFL.com pre draft, Lawrence comp was Watson.
    Trevor Lawrence is literally a 4.6 guy.
    Winston is 4.97. Luck is 4.5
    Mills is faster than Winston…..by a lot.
    But they’re similar in that they aren’t runners. They have similar arm talent. Hopefully Mills has better decision making
     
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  8. HardenVolumeOne

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    https://deadspin.com/you-know-who-jameis-winston-looks-like-after-five-seaso-1842526841

    Peyton vs. Jameis Stats first 5 years:

    Peyton: 20,618 passing yards; 138 TDs, 100 INTs, 62.1 Completion percentage.; 85.9 QB rating; 4.9 TD rate; 3.5 INT rate

    Jameis: 19,737 passing yards; 121 TDs, 88 INTs, 61.3 Completion percentage 86.9 QB rating; 4.7 TD rate; 3.5 INT rate

    What, these questions aren’t being bandied about on the cable sports talk shows or in the endless column inches dedicated to NFL coverage across the country?


    Nope. Everywhere you go, sports media is fixated on Winston’s interceptions instead of his 5,109 yards. If Winston were a young prolific white gunslinger, what kind of analysis would we get from an NFL media who will yell “FitzMagic” if a below-average white QB can string together just two exciting wins in a row?

    Thankfully, Monday’s episode of the Dan Patrick Show, former Buccaneers and Colts head coach Tony Dungy tried to bring some attention to this. “You look at Jameis’ numbers and Peyton Manning’s numbers in those first five years, there’s not a lot of difference other than Peyton’s team won more,” Dungy said.

    Is Peyton’s former Super Bowl coach right? Let’s take a look:

    Manning is Winston’s greatest NFL statistical comparison after five years. Young Peyton’s superior win-loss record has more to do with his superior support, notably Hall of Famers Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James. Winston (6-10 record) had a far superior rookie year, but Manning’s 3-13 rookie record helped land James with the No. 4 overall pick. Now consider this stat on Peyton’s first five seasons.

    · 35-17 with Edgerrin James

    · 7—21 without Edgerrin James


    We will come back soon to “The Edgerrin Effect” on young Peyton, and “The Bruce Arians Effect” on Jameis, but first, can we have an honest conversation about Winston’s interceptions?

    Interceptions Over Five-Year period

    100 Peyton Manning– Years 1-5

    102 Dan Marino — 1985-1989

    101 Brett Favre — 2004-2008

    93 Brett Favre — 1998-2002

    97 Joe Namath — Years 1-5

    88 Jameis Winston — Years 1-5


    Okay, now that we know Winston didn’t invent “The Interception,” let’s discuss “30.”

    TD/INT Ratio Adjusted for 626 Pass Attempts (like Winston in 2019)

    33-30 Jameis, (2019)

    28-30 Peyton (1998)

    21-30 Brett Favre (2005)

    20-31 Eli Manning (2013)

    24-31 Ben Roethlisberger (2006)

    INT Rate Drop After Fifth Season To Rest Of Career

    3.5 to 2.3 Peyton Manning

    3.9 to 2.6 Kurt Warner

    3.6 to 2.3 Roethlisberger

    3.5 to 1.4 Alex Smith

    3.5 to ??? Jameis Winston

    20-34 John Elway (1992)

    17-33 Warren Moon (1986)
     
  9. HardenVolumeOne

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    if mills had winstons upside, he would have been a first rounder.. PERIOD

    also i brought up qbs who were gunslingers who int rate dipped after their fifth season. Winston led the nfl in td% when he was healthy and only had 3 picks compared to 15 td's..

    and no trevor's comp was jameis winston, i remmeber when lance zierlein brought it up when he was interviewed by daniel jeramiah leading up to the draft as being a slow processor for one of his negatives
     
  10. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member
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    No it wasn’t man. I have the screen shot. Lawrence comp was always a bigger Watson.
    No one is comparing the best prospect in years to Winston
     
  11. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member
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    Also, Winston is what he is. He isn’t an elite QB, he isn’t even Kirk Cousins.
    He put up big numbers in all categories and didn’t produce wins.
    I’m simply comparing the arm talent, size and mobility. Mills and Winston are similar in these areas. Mills being faster but not a runner.
     
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  12. HardenVolumeOne

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    whats so funny is that jameis was memed and made fun of, but the league literally had to sit this man down illegally for 2 years because they were scared shitless a black man would be the face of passing yards in 10-15 years, winston was young enough to the point nothing would have stopped him from being up their with brees and peyton when he retired when it came to passing td's and yardage. Their is a silent blackballing of winstons career, the nfl cant just come out and ignore him like they did warren moon back in the day, but they can use social media to trash him, and make him unappealing to fanbases even thought his talent says he is a starter in the nfl. Just look at the michael thomas situation this year, winston was named the starter and all of a sudden the saints best reciever cant suit up lol. Its like the league did for watson in trading hopkins.. but watson was smart he signed that contract when it was offered( had a no trade clause put in) and then asked to be traded. The precedent watson set was dangerous, as watson now dictates where he wants to go in career. Will be intresting to see which coach he ends up playing for next.. if its an old school head coach or brandon staley type
     
  13. HardenVolumeOne

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    https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2021JFields.php

    Justin Fields

    Player Comparison: Deshaun Watson/Dak Prescott
     
  14. HardenVolumeOne

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    now compare their passing stats
     
  15. Fulgore

    Fulgore Member

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    Mills/Winston is actually a pretty good comparison. I hate how the so called tv experts always compare white qbs to only other white qbs and vice versa. It’s lazy and dumb.
     
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  16. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member
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  17. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member
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    When I see Mills throw and move I see Winston.
    If Winston was a better decision maker he would be in the upper level of QBs.
    Mills is faster but doesn’t use it ( I wish he would) but the arm talent and size is similar
     
  18. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost Member
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    Like I said, I don't pretend to be a draft expert. I think the data is pretty clear that the draft is a lot more luck than science. Even the people who do this for a living might as well be throwing darts. Keep picking qbs until you hit on one. Doing otherwise is going backwards.
     
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  19. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member
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    That’s a more than fair take imo, I personally think Mills is a hit already. Maybe not a home run but a solid double that could potentially score
     
  20. raining threes

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    I'm for picking QB's every yr. Just not with high picks every year and this isn't the to be picking a QB high. Like you said, you wouldn't know because you're not a draftnik and that's OK. My QB this year with one of those 6th rd picks (I wouldn't pick him before the 6th is Zappe formerly of HBU.)

    If you dont give your drafted QB a chance and keep bringing in QB's every year with high picks, then you will never really know what you have at QB. Now if you have a vet that looks like he will be retiring in a couple of years then you should draft a QB and develop him so he can step in when your current QB retires. Kinda like the Packers have done with Favre/Rodgers and Rodgers/Love.
     

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