Paolo Banchero vs Chet Holmgren

In terms of offense, Jabari Smith at Auburn is miles ahead of JJJ at Michigan State.

The author definitely points out Jabari has a limited handle. He also explains being functionally athletic at 6'10 with an elite jumpshot mitigates the need for advanced dribbling. If you're buying Jabari at #1, you're probably buying into the notion that he's coordinated enough to learn a few moves that consistently get him to his spots where he just shoots over defenders. He's already taking and making difficult jumpshots off a few dribbles with defenders in his face.

I think Jabari, Paolo, and Chet are all worthy of #1 consideration. I think Jabari has the highest floor, best jumper, and versatility to slot into different team structures and lineups. Paolo is the closest to "give him the ball and let him work". Chet is a rare, skilled, defensive monster..but like Jabari, lacks obvious go-to offensive potential. Just depends on what you value more, and how much you buy into "potential".

Historically, teams have favored the offensive creators at #1, so Paolo going first wouldn't be a huge surprise.

 

I agree with this I just think a guy who has shown no proclivity to put the ball on floor and create offense should be looked at as a franchise guy, I don't think you can mitigate advanced dribbling when it comes to getting your shot in crunch time.

I think Chet has shown much more handle than Smith, at least in HS, will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

Banchero has shown to be a much better playmaker than Taylor and has much more range, Taylor was very talented, but he was unmotivated and a bit of a knucklehead.

Taylor was all potential he underachieved in college, his floor is much higher than Taylor just because of his skill set and motivation.

Lewis was never a franchise guy, a great # 2 but not a guy who you could give him the ball at crunch time like a Durrant, Harden or Lebron, not saying Smith has to be that guy and would be great as a Lewis and I think the comp is great 2.0, but he was a fringe All NBA type the majority of his career IMO, is that what you want from a guy in this class at the top.

To be fair I would be happy getting a Reshard Lewis type in his draft because they are hard to come by but if we are talking true build around guy

 

Pablo liked a post last night of KPJ hitting the game winner

 

I agree with Lewis, but I think Miller would be almost unplayable at crunch time and I think he would not have the impact he did because he was not a great playmaker, and he was not a good defender.

I also agree we need to stop stanning and be able to actually discuss players without having an agenda.

 

I'm really split on who the top prospect is right now.

I think Jabari Smith is still riding the wave of underexposure, while Banchero/Holmgren got nitpicked after a while, and the perception of both got worse in the past few months. Smith has been in the #1 discussion now for a bit, and has struggled a bit to score effectively inside the arc. I think more criticism for him will start to come soon, and things will even out.

- Banchero is still the most likely to become a go-to guy, but the fact that there aren't many semi-traditional PFs like him that are true Franchise guys is probably his biggest knock. He's not going to be a standout defender, but I don't think he'll be a liability like some are suggesting, just because most examples of 6'10" scoring PFs don't care much about the other end. On the Rockets, pairing him with Sengun definitely raises some questions about our defensive ceiling as a team, but there are teams near the top of the L in defense without great defensive Cs (Clips, Nets, Warriors even though Draymond fixes that). We would need a ton of defense on the perimeter if we did pick Banchero.

- Smith does look like he's going to be pretty jumpshot-dependent in the pros, but seems to have enough talent to develop more than just being a shooter. But I don't see go-to guy, and while he looks to have nice defensive potential with his length/mobility/athleticism, I don't see a true difference maker on that end. That said, any 6'10" athlete who can shoot, run and switch on D like him is a great asset, and fits on any team -- and he'd seemingly fit pretty damn well on ours, alongside Sengun.

- Holmgren has the best advanced #s of the three, but that's mostly because he's a low-USG, high BPG guy. But I think that will translate. With him, I think you mostly know what you're going to get -- a long big who will cover a ton of ground on D and will likely be a top weak-side shot-blocker, and on O will be able to get easy buckets along with occasional created shots/3-pointers sprinkled in. That sounds like a great deal in a class without a clear #1, but I don't know...I look at his frame and immediately throw a red flag out. I've never seen a top player with his frame. He's made it work thus far (though it has affected him in some ways), but I can't imagine him banging with Embiid/Jokic. I know you should be able to slide him out to the 4, but he's going to be in the paint more often than not, and that's worrisome.

- I'm high on Kendall Brown becoming an elite role-player. I'd take him in the top 5/6, even without a very developed offensive game.
- AJ Griffin is a top talent, especially physically -- and he's finally getting some run. I think his injuries have taken away some of his confidence, especially as a driver (where he could really do a ton of damage), but if he gets that back, watch out.
- Ivey is Ivey. The best G in this class, but I think he needs a specific situation next to another G who can pass, as he's more of a downhill/P&R creator than an actual floor-general. Detroit might need a big (they really need everything), but I think Ivey would fit pretty well there next to Cade, as his explosiveness would open things up.
- I like Bennedict Mathurin a lot. His J is picturesque, he's a very solid athlete, and checks most every box you'd want in a 2/3. I'd take him in the top-10, maybe top-8.

 

I'm starting to lean back to Holmgren.

I think him and Sengun could play together and I think in a team that is so bad on defense Chet would be an extremely welcome addition.

He seems to be engaged in games and makes an impact without having to have the ball a lot or have plays run for him.

The paint defense, his height and length plus shooting and his ability to take some bigs off the dribble....

Rockets could use some actual height and length on the squad.

Plus this would likely move Tate to a bench role and let the Rockets play Garry or Martin at the 3. Or even better kpj at the three and sign Tyus Jones in free agency.

Chet
Sengun
Kpj
Green
Tyus

 

Get rid of KPJ, play Chet at PF, and I'm dine.

 

My worthless, unscientific opinion:
As of January 8
1. Jabari
2. Chet
3. Paolo

Jalen, Alp, Josh, Garuba + hopefully a top 5 pick and another late first

 

Lol. No. You are misremembering Reggie Miller. This dude wasn’t Kyle Korver. He was a legendary playoff beast that was the best player on multiple deep run Pacer teams. Miller would be a perennial All NBA team member in this era.

 

I think Chet's defense would pair well with Alpee's offense.

 

Wood and Eric with some picks for Ben-

Sengun
Banchero
Simmons point taking turns with porter
Green
Porter

 

A lot of scouts agree with you as they don’t view Smith or anyone in this draft as a franchise player. I have heard Paul George as the comparison for Smith IF he reaches his reasonable ceiling. George is a very good player but he isn’t really a franchise player…

I have heard a lot of people say Smith is guaranteed to be a near all star because of his skill set. I’ll just point out that people said the same about Marvin Williams and Harrison Barnes. Both played a long time but neither was ever better than a solid starter.

Then again I think Ivey and Griffin are likely to be the biggest stars in this draft. Ivey is on possibly the worse spaced team in college basketball which is holding him back. Griffin was hurt his junior and senior year of high school but when he plays at Duke, he is their best player.

 

I like Smith and Chet if the Rockets can get them, but have Ivey and Griffin next up if they don’t get in the top 3.

 

People sleeping on Scoot Henderson, the best pg. You'll have to get rid of KPJ though