Zack Edney is looking like a front runner and freak. I'd consider him as a #1 talent right now. This guy is good. And he makes everyone else on Purdue look even better when he screens.
His statement isn't even true, Jokic shoots over 50% from 3-16 feet, that's KD/CP3/Kawhi levels of midrange efficency. Wings dominate the league because guards can't defend and bigs can't handle. Its really that simple.
He would hardly get any minutes on an NBA court in this current era. Maybe in the 90s or 00s he could be somewhat succesful... He's basically Boban 2.0
My point is that Banchero projects as a Griffin-esque defender. A big body, but not great lateral quickness and a mediocre wingspan. If he pans out as an offensive force worth his potential defensive drawbacks, then he'll need an elite defensive big around him whenever he's on the floor, not dissimilar to KAT. edit: Can't even reply to @jiggyfly thanks to him putting his message in the quotation.
I get it but that does not negate my point, you draft the best guy and then fill in other pieces, just because he has those defensive weaknesses does not mean he will be a negative defender he could just be ok and still be worthy of the pick. If KAT was coming out in this draft would you not draft him because of Sengun?
Who Blake Griffin? Kat is worse than Blake griffin and has led his team to what? Griffin was just as good as Kat when he was peak Blake the fact remains we don't know if any of these guys are comparable to Blake or Kat and I would take a Blake level guy over Kat anyway.
I keep going back and forth. If the Rockets get a top 3 pick I can't decide if I'd rather they go Smith who, if available, I see as a rich man's Rashard Lewis or Banchero who, if available, I see as Carmelo Anthony in Carlos Boozer's body. Banchero is the high octane offense pick while Smith is more balanced. Smith certainly compliments Sengun while Banchero/Green two man game would be dirty. Decisions, decisions...
If the Rockets get Banchero or Holmgren with their top pick I think they need to target an athletic 3/4 defender with their second pick. Tari Eason is my current favorite but I'd consider AJ Griffin or Sochan from Baylor too. Hell, Keegan Murray might even fall close enough to swing a deal a la Sengun. If Smith is the guy I might look at selecting a pg to develop. For value's sake maybe trade back for multiple seconds?
I really cannot decide between the two but having Chet as our Power Forward and Sengun as our Center would be the same as Cleveland is doing right now. Sengun is 240 lbs so he can handle most center and Chet would help on the backside defense also if everything go through Sengun I can see Chet hitting 3's all day.
The debate surrounding the No. 1 pick has narrowed as we near the season’s midway point, and while there’s not a firm consensus, the discussion has shifted meaningfully as teams start to form opinions in preparation for the pre-draft process in the spring. Based on what I’ve gleaned over the past couple months from conversations with a wide range of NBA executives and scouts, this is currently a two-player race for the No. 1 spot, with Auburn’s Jabari Smith and Duke’s Paolo Banchero having separated from the pack. I ranked Smith as the draft’s top prospect after seeing him play live for the first time last month. Based on what we’ve seen to this point, I’d venture further and give Smith the edge as the slight favorite. Smith’s emergence has been something of a sea change in the scope of the 2022 draft, considering the manner in which Banchero and Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren led the preseason discussion among league personnel. But it hasn’t taken long for Smith to completely reframe once-modest expectations, first raising his profile in front of scouts in closed-door practices, then compiling a series of strong early-season performances that forced the issue. He’s been efficient, productive and vastly advanced for a player his age—he doesn’t turn 19 until May, making him the youngest player currently ranked in SI’s Top 10. It may sound crazy to label Smith as potentially a once-per-generation jump shooting prospect … but only until you watch him shoot up close. Listed at 6' 10" with legitimate size and a frame that projects to add significant strength, Smith’s ability to knock down shots in gameflow has made him a highly effective scorer at this still-nascent phase of his development. He doesn’t hijack possessions and doesn’t demand the ball needlessly, but when the play finds him, he’s a threat to simply shoot over defenders from anywhere on the floor. He’s making the type of one-dribble pull-ups and off-balance leaners that most NBA players never perfect on a consistent basis. He has above-average vision and makes quick, effective pass-shoot decisions. And he’s barely old enough for jury duty. The primary knocks on Smith right now are his rudimentary ball-handling skills and his sporadic struggles to get to the rim and finish. Those issues are connected and currently limit the variety of shots he’s able to create for himself, although I can’t emphasize enough how little that’s seemed to matter so far. The fact he’s a special jump shooter lowers the threshold for how creative a handler Smith needs to be in the NBA—it’s not like he needs to put the ball on the floor all that often to be effective, and it should remain easy for him to shoot over opponents while playing off one or two dribbles. It’s clear that even the toughest midrange shots are going to be more acceptable for him than most players. That part of his game is going to translate. While Smith has a lot of room to improve his shooting footwork and expand his repertoire of moves, considering how effective he already is with just the basic tenets of his scoring toolbox, that’s an exciting proposition. His level of competitive focus and patience has been impressive. There are going to be games where he doesn’t touch the ball for long stretches due to how much freedom Auburn gives their shot-happy guards, and to Smith’s credit, he seems comfortable with that. He’s a work in progress defensively, but has at least been committed on that end and offers a physical presence when he sits in a stance on the perimeter. As he gets more comfortable handling the ball and making himself dangerous off the dribble, his playmaking skills should continue to manifest positively. It’s not hard to watch Smith, consider how unguardable the best tall jump shooters in the league can be, and see where this might be going. Smith has an inarguable edge on Banchero in a few key areas: he’s a much better jump shooter, he’s a more projectable athlete, and he projects as a versatile team defender. To Banchero’s credit, those are maybe the only three areas in which he might leave you wanting more, but they’re potentially critical weaknesses. Banchero is an exceptionally polished prospect with advanced ball skills and has been a serious matchup problem for college defenders. If his jumper takes a big step forward, his ceiling shifts upward substantially. Due to his mix of physical strength, finesse and scoring instincts, Banchero has drawn comparisons to mid-career Carmelo Anthony and current Julius Randle. He’s more unselfish with the ball than both players, but those names speak to the quality and breadth of his offensive skill set. He’s likely to be quite good on that end, with the capability to threaten defenses from all three levels of the floor. He was my projected top prospect to start the season for good reason. Still, Banchero projects best as an offense-centric, true power forward. There tends to be an inflection point for even the best players of that archetype when their defensive impact lags well behind their offense. Banchero doesn’t boast immense positional length, nor does he wield high-end explosiveness in tight spaces, which caps his value on the defensive end and limits him as a rim protector. He’s smart and tough enough to add some value, which leaves room for optimism, but it’s hard to see him as a defensively adequate small-ball center, which is the role that could best optimize his offensive gifts. Banchero’s polish might make him a safer bet than Smith for an organization in need of an immediate rookie cornerstone—and there’s certainly an argument for him—but when we’re discussing long-term ceiling, Smith’s best case is better than anyone else’s, and it’s simply not that hard to see him adding the basic skill and physical elements he needs to access his considerable potential. Which player goes first will still hinge on which team wins the lottery, but the vast majority of NBA evaluators I’ve spoken with have agreed that Smith and Banchero have set themselves apart as the top two prospects. This leaves Holmgren as the guy who may anchor the next tier of players, more so than a true candidate for the top selection. That’s certainly not because Holmgren has played poorly—he’s been insanely efficient on offense and clearly among the top rim protectors in college basketball. But considering the potential Smith and Banchero offer as offensive focal points, it’s difficult to make an argument for Holmgren at No. 1 without ascribing a level of individual scoring upside that many scouts have a hard time comfortably projecting. While it’s easy to look at Holmgren’s frame and wonder about his physical longevity, the more you watch him, the less risky he actually feels. He’s been quite dependable for Gonzaga while playing an offensive role that probably echoes the way he’ll function in the NBA. After seeing him play twice in person (against quality opponents in Duke and Texas Tech), I think his impressive rim protection translates meaningfully. The defense gives Holmgren a high floor: he’ll be able to move his feet, cover ground around the basket, take away drives as a team defender, and likely avoid getting posted up to his detriment, considering how the NBA plays now. He’s not going to be an elite offensive rebounder, and he gets pushed around in traffic, but you take the good with the bad. The irony is that despite Holmgren’s unique array of ball skills at his size, which drove him to viral fame as a high schooler, his individual offense has still been heavily gameflow-dependent. To his credit, his shot selection has been excellent at Gonzaga, but he doesn’t move like a guy who’s going to break off plays and get a bucket, and he’s a bit slow-footed moving north-south. It’s fair to wonder how functionally dangerous Holmgren’s handle actually makes him in the halfcourt: he’s not especially fast getting past people, and he’s not the level of shooter to where you want him dribbling into tough, contested jumpers very often. His lack of physical heft dampens some of his threat going downhill into traffic. Still, Holmgren is quite skilled for a 7-footer, has great touch around the basket, will be a capable jump shooter, and should be highly dangerous as a screener who can make plays and space the floor. Teams will be able to play him with a second big and experiment with configurations. Those have always been selling points. But for many scouts, it’s less a question of Holmgren’s ability and a matter of what it really adds up to—and, considering what Smith and Banchero have to offer, whether taking Holmgren ahead of either one is worth the opportunity cost. It’s worth noting that a pair of Big Ten guards, Wisconsin’s Johnny Davis and Purdue’s Jaden Ivey, are currently forcing teams to think long and hard about who they’d take in the top five. The sum total of these shifts in the prospect hierarchy is a positive development for the overall strength of this draft class, which has been a challenge for many around the league to confidently gauge. Many prospective one-and-done freshmen have been inconsistent, yet the shifting demands and challenges players have faced due to COVID-19’s impact suggest that NBA teams exercise patience. Still, the ascension of Smith and Banchero as legitimate draft prizes, Holmgren’s reliability, and Davis and Ivey as top guards has teams breathing easier at the bottom of the standings. At the very least, there’s more security in that than most around the league expected a couple months ago.
Banchero isn't going #1 in this draft unless there are injuries. Smith is going to get a lot of support because he is a modern wing with unrealized potential offensively if he can put the ball on the floor. Teams know though that they will get a 40%+ three point shooter in volume with him, that he can play multiple positions and he has the physical attributes of being a good, if not lock down defender. I personally think he is a little over rated at this point. He really struggles to do anything when asked to put the ball on the floor, and that can limit his upside. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if he goes #1. Holmgren has been about what I expected. He is fitting into a system on a team with an older dominant interior player. Defensively Holmgren is special. He can block shots at a very high rate because of his 7'6" wingspan, but more importantly he has strong natural instincts as a shot blocker. He also can defend on the perimeter and interior and from the strong and weak side. He is going to be a player that will anchor a defense as long as he stays healthy. He is very active and has some dog in him. Offensively he has some current limitations. He isn't comfortable taking the ball up the floor and finishing and his first step is mediocre on the perimeter. He can get by guys in transition and he has great dexterity and flexibility so he usually finds a way if the defense isn't set, to score. He also is excellent at finishing flushes inside. He will likely be a good but not great three point shooter. The concern with Chet is that he may never be a #1 scorer on a team, and a lot of his baskets are hustle related that don't come much in a half court playoff type situation. So a team that takes him will need to find a #1 scorer that also is good at running an offense. That will scare some teams away. Chet is a lot like Bill Walton, he is a rare player that impacts winning and is a star without dropping 25 a night. Ivey is just a ball of energy and ability in the body of a combo guard. He is going to score, he can defend and he plays and works hard. Comes from a very strong family background and you won't hear many negative things about him as a person. The question with him is whether he will be a good enough playmaker. He is improving at it, but he still needs to get better. I personally think he has a chance to be the best player in this draft in 5 years. He has some Dwayne Wade in his game and has consistently improved. Johnny Davis just keeps playing well in big games and has some size and explosiveness to his game. He has a chance to go #5 in this draft. Teams think he can be a Michael Finley caliber player if he keeps it up. Adrian Griffin is a rate guy that won't go in the top 4 of the draft, but has super star potential. He is extremely strong, polished, well rounded and outside of injuries does everything a team asks. It sounds absurd, but he reminds me a lot of Grant Hill from a skill standpoint. It is a real compliment because before injuries, Hill was one of the 4-5 best basketball players in the world.
A lot of people are going to say I am crazy, but don't be stunned if A.J. Griffin goes before Paolo Banchero in this draft. Right now Griffin is as good a player.
Yeah, sounds like fans and analysts are moving Jabari Smith up and Holmgren down. Never saw Chet as a KD type offensive threat, and he hasn't flashed too much on that end, but he is giving up touches and opportunities at Gonzaga. I think teams will be impressed and reminded why he was pre-season #1 during his individual workouts, and the conversation will open back up a bit. Still parsing out how switchable he is on defense. I am a little suspicious given how slow his feet look. Results so far seem okay and stats indicate he's pretty good out on the perimeter, but in comparing his tape to someone that is actually NBA switchable like Mobley, I see some differences. Even in college, Mobley was great at shuffling and sliding to stay in front and keep himself balanced and in position, while Chet is more upright, takes long steps and occasionally puts himself in situations where his legs get crossed. Also seems like Chet puts himself into more situations where the only way to recover and make a play is with a chasedown block, whereas Mobley was better at sticking with his guy and staying vertical. Maybe the difference in technique amounts to nothing? Chet's wingspan and timing do allow him more room for error. Or maybe he'll unlock another level to his defense if he'd bend his knees and shuffle his feet a bit. Just a casual eye-test observation I found interesting.
I finally watched an entire game of Smiths and not that impressed, he was invisible for a large amount of time you can definitely see all the talent, but he is just a floor spacer on that team and was not involved in the offense that much. Right now, he is not even on Rashard's level with how they are using him. I just don't know if any of these guys are true franchise players, the only one who is the hub of an offense is Banchero and I don't know if he is athletic enough to be a franchise guy. I will say this, a less selfish, more motivated, better passing Carmelo would be enough for me and that's what I see the floor being in Banchero.
I've been saying it for awhile, I wouldn't take Chet with the Jazz 1st pick. I just don't see it. 2nd round yes, 1st round no way. I see Bol Bol 2.0. Rockets need to get PBA with their pick and trade the Nets pick for a young SF.
This guy ignores the fact that Smith has not shown the ability to get his own shot at crunchtime which is vitaly important when concidering a franchise type guy, yes he is great jump shooter but can he take guys off the dribble like Durant? This guy is saying he is a better Jaren Jackson Jr is that what you want at #1 in this draft? Banchero has at least shown he can get his own shot and his best position is not a small ball center so I don't know why he threw that in there, also if can score at this level in the NBA it will not matter if he is defensive liability. Green just went # 2 last year and everybody said he was gonna be a defensive liabilty because of his size.
I think Banchero's floor is closer to Mo Taylor myself but that is where I think he is today, with no progress or improvement. As far as Smith, you have to project with him. Rashard Lewis wasnt Rashard Lewis as a 19 or 20 year old kid. Smith is only 18 now.
