Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

Daaaaamn. Apparently Stros still in it but if Crane is stuck on 6 yrs max then we’re definitely looking at an AAV pushing $40m

 

If it's 8/270 Astros should have done that. Even his last two years suck it should be worth it for 6 years.

 

kinda seems like Carlos really wants to stay but just wants a better (for him) deal

 

I think he's staying.

 

Yeah I really do think he wants to stay but he won't if he can get more money elsewhere.

 

Correa can want a 10/300+ contract all he wants. Maybe cubs eventually offer it to him. If the market dries up, high AAV with Astros might be his best and last resort.

 

I know that Correa has his heels dug in about getting more than 6 years, and Crane has his about not going over.

But I wonder if they can come up with an agreement with opt outs and options.

6 yr / $222 mil.

Structured: $30/$30/$40/$40/$35/$35 with $12 mil signing bonus.

Opt out after year 2. If his market takes off, then he can sign a 8 yr/$280 mil deal as a 29 year old. ( or possibly more) and his 10 yr total would be $352 mil. And the Astros would only be on the hook for $36 mil AAV and 2 years.

Opt out after year 4. This is the more likely scenario, as he has collected his bonus and 2 biggest salaries, only leaving 2 years and $70 on the table. He could sign for 6yrs/$200 ( or more) as a 31 year old and still make $352 mil over 10 yrs. Astros get Correa's prime age 27-30 years for $38 mil AAV if he opts out.

2 year club option for years 7 and 8. $39 mil each with $12 mil buyout. Decision required before year 6.

Becomes a player option w/ 600 PA in year 6 or 1100 PA in yrs 5 and 6.

Possibilities:

2 yrs $72 mil and he opts out.

4yrs $152 mil and he opts out.

6yrs $222 then 3 options:

1) Correa gets another $12 mil and is a FA

2) team picks up option: 2 yr/$78 mil option = 8 yrs/ $300 mil. Total.

3)Correa earns player option and can choose to take another 2 yrs/$78 mil as a 33 year old.

The only way the Astros are stuck with yrs 7 and 8 is if Correa gets 600PA in yr 6 or 1100 PA total in yrs 5 and 6.

Correa is guaranteed 6/$234 with chance at 8/$300.

8yrs/ $278 mil as a 29 yr old
6yrs/ $198 mil as a 31 yr old
4yrs/ $116 mil as a 33 yr old
2yrs/ $50 mil as a 35 yr old

All get him to 10/$350 mil.

 

My guess is that $230M/6yrs with an opt out after the 1st and 2nd year probably gets it done for Houston. Sounds like there’s a legit chance.

 

Crane will have to step in like he did with Verlander if the Astros are to go any higher on their offer to Correa. Carlos has a non muscular back issue that the Astros definitely have concerns about. Either that or he is going to have to bet on his health more and tie that into the contract.

Graveman really wanted to come back and would have taken 3/22 to get it done. Click wouldn’t budge on the third year. So for 5 million more you get an extra year of Graveman as opposed to Neris. Which to be fair isn’t necessarily better, just an example. Correa is a massively different level of free agent but just adding a year and 32 million to an offer isn’t as simple as it sounds.

 

You may be right.

I think that Click is on a different page than most Astros fans

Correa and Graveman are different cases.

I think it's difficult for Click to think a pitcher is special and not easily replaceable due to " the Tampa way"

It's easier for position players but I think Click has very strong feelings against long contracts.

Crane hired him for his baseball knowledge and decision making.

Most successful business men understand that trusting your people to do what you hired them for leads to the most success most often.

That does not bode well for Correa in Navy and Orange next year.

 

Right. Crane trusts Click to do his job. Verlander is a special case. This is speculation but Correa could be as well. But for that to even be on the table, Carlos would have to lower his expectations. I’d guess another team gets closer to his price than the Astros and it’s enough to override his desire to stay here.

 

So you think we will be looking for a replacement for Bregman in 2 to 3 years?

So why would we not be looking for a replacement for Correa in those same 2 to 3 years?

 

Idk, I think Correa is gone. Corey Seager inked 10/325? Carlos’ highest offer isn’t going to be DET’s, what, early December 275M bid? I just think it’s a matter of time before he gets the length and AAV he’s happy with. Not every owner has as big of a 10yr aversion as Click/Crane, and CC is on the younger side. He’s not capping at a 6 year offer. I think HOU will have to stretch to 7 or 8 years if they want a shot.

 

My mindset is to optimize the time you have left with the core. That there's a finite shelf life for championship contending, and the best era of Astros baseball ever, no matter how you manage it. All runs end.

In 5 years, there's a higher chance the Astros are approaching a rebuild vs. going to their 7th WS in 10 years.

I know that for 2022-2023, they're better with Bregman/Altuve/Correa/Tucker/Alvarez vs. any other version. They want Correa for at least the next 5-6 years because of that and are willing to pay him the most money on the team to stay for that time.

Will be great if Pena is an all-star in 2025, but the way people talk about him, they're either portraying him as a young phenom prospect like Wander or rookie Correa (he's not) or a guy ready to seamlessly replace Correa now (he's not).

And the last point is that this team will have all sorts of financial flexibility in 3 years when Bregman/Altuve are either off the books or retained at a decreased AAV. Ideally Tucker/Alvarez would have already been extended... but given them seeing how this front office deals, wouldn't fault either of them for taking the Springer/Correa route (as opposed to the Bregman route).

 

You still did not answer the original question and it's no reason that money can't be spread out and make this team deeper and better.

For that kind of money, I want MVP level of production and I have not seen that Correa do that with the bat in the last 2 years.

 

Pena will not replace Correa's value, and it is unfair to compare a rookie to a guy who was making a lot of money, and will be making even more next season. He's more filling in the value of a 1st year guy. If Correa isn't re-signed, he'll be the highest paid player on the 2021 roster that is leaving. If you want to grade someone on their ability to replace Correa's value, look at the highest paid player added. On 2022 salary, that will likely be Verlander unless Crane pulls something off even bigger.

 

I am actually fine with Correa leaving.

This is different than Springer or even Keuchel or Morton.

The team tried ( still trying) to keep him. Made an offer they feel is fair. If he moves on good for him

And good for the Astros trying to keep him.

Players come and go.

I'm still excited to see Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez, Verlander, McCullers, Framber, Brantley, Yuli, Pressly, all potential all stars on the 2022 team.

And 2023 could add Jeremy Pena, Korey Lee, Pedro Leon, Jake Meyers, Hunter Brown, Forrest Whitley, while only giving up a few of those above.

The window is still wide open.

 

Either you think he’s closer to the top 5 mvp voting war leader… or you don’t.

unlike other high priced free agents, you’re not necessarily overpaying for past production.

 

I don't think w should sign him. It will severely limit who else we can sign and retain the future. He is historically a injury prone player who happened to have a healthy year during his contract year. He is going to become one of the faces of baseball if he goes to ny or la but it's too big of a gamble I think. If he does leave though then we can afford to have catcher and cf hot their body weight

 

By the time his contract could be cost prohibitive, there are a ton of unknowns.

Altuve, Bregman and Verlander will make close to $90 million combined in 2023… and yet that’s not going to prevent Crane from offering $32 million/year to Correa. If anything, years 4-6 of the Correa deal don’t really have other committed big deals unless they extend Alvarez, Tucker, or they lock up one of the current young pitchers.

I also don’t see Crane spending close to luxury tax payrolls unless the team is a for sure contender… regardless of which big money players are on the team.