Paolo Banchero vs Chet Holmgren

I was leaning Chet earlier in the year but I'm firmly in the middle now. Chet/Banchero along with Jabari Smith are all insane prospects

 

Too bad we’re winning it all this year

 

I've come down to earth on Banchero and Holmgren. They seem like really good players, but I haven't seen anything to say "these guys are dominant" or "generational". Chet has freakish skills for his size and Banchero is consistently good against some of the best competition in college basketball. But neither have me drooling as the centerpiece to build around yet (and generally, that's what I think of when I think a #1 or #2 pick), but it's still early and they're both really young, so who knows. I haven't watched any of Jabari Smith's games since I don't really watch much college basketball, but has Auburn really played anybody yet?

 

Rockets still have a 42% chance at picking top 4, so the thread lives.

Chet and Smith have played since last talked about.

Chet with a pedestrian (for his standards) 15 points on 6-12 shooting (2-4 3PT), 15 rebounds and 4 blocks (lol).

His FT% has dropped to 66%, a real concern IMO. He went 11-14 for his first 14 free throws, and 7-14 in his last 14. Small sample size theater, but 33% 3PT in college plus poor free throw shooting raises eyebrows.

Smith with a great game vs Nebraska, 21 points on 7-13 shooting (3-6 3PT), with 5 rebounds.

I stand by what I said earlier, zero bust potential, jack of all trades player.

 

Looking at Holmgren's physique, it doesn't surprise me that he's struggling with his free-throws in game. My guess is that his shot is affected by the in-game physicality, the more physical the opposing players are with him, the more his shot suffers. I think he's a much better shooter than his 3PT and FT percentages would indicate, just needs to get stronger.

 

Outside of the top-3, I do like Kendall Brown and Jaden Ivey a lot.

Brown is like a bigger KJ with passing instincts. He's about 6'8" 215 with a strong frame and elite athleticism plus can switch onto bigs, wings and guards while playing with high IQ/within the team concept. I know we ideally want a Unicorn-type next to Sengun, but a low-usage, high-efficiency 2-way guy like Brown fits/helps on any team, no matter whether we play him at the 3 or the 4.

Ivey is interesting, though I'd say his fit with Green and KPJ (if he's still around) might be a tad more questionable. I think he's a 1, but not a true floor-general. But he is more comfortable running an offense than KPJ is. On the plus side, he's explosive, has a crazy motor and can push the pace/tempo as well as anyone.

But to be honest, I think Jabari might be the best fit here. Him and Sengun would be an amazing frontcourt duo for the next decade.

 

Best video on Chet I've seen so far.

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Touches on Chet's potential fit with his passing and Sengun's at the end,

 

Excellent evaluation.

I have seen every game Chet has played this season.

I completely agree that Chet isn't ever going to average 30 a night like some seem to think. He doesn't have the explosive first step and while he is a good shooter from the perimeter, he isn't elite. I do think that he can get 20 a night though in a few years, and with the rest of his game, if he does that he will be a franchise type player.

Chet is likely going to be an incredibly efficient player. He is going to get a lot of baskets in transition and under the rim and he is going to be a good three point shooter. He is devastating in the full court as both a finisher and even more so as a passer. He is a very mobile and agile player with good hands. Once he gets a full head of steam he is almost impossible to stop when a team doesn't have a set defense. His handle and height and passing ability makes him hard to stop.

In the half court he is really good at setting screens and moving without the ball. He will mostly have to score off of 3's and put backs inside. I think he MIGHT become a better post scorer, in the same way that Yao was - but I don't think he is going to be asked to do it much.

Defensively he is an all world shot blocker and shot changer. He is very good at closing his man out and communicates very well defensively. He is likely to not make many mistakes at all defensively down the line if he stays healthy.

I suppose it is in the eye of the beholder to an extent. I compare him more to Bill Walton than anyone else as far as his feel of the game and some of his skills are concerned. He isn't in an era of post play, so his skills have manifested differently than Walton. He has some AK47 in him as well with his mobility and really long arms.

Does some one consider 18/10/5/3 with excellent defense and high efficiency a superstar? I personally do.... but some people would say the scoring isn't high enough for this era of basketball. I don't agree personally. I think an interior player that is an elite defender and that can influence the offense in a lot of ways and efficiently is pretty damn valuable and is a franchise player.

Someone like Banchero is going to be a better scorer and more of a modern player. Banchero will be a little more explosive, he will get more steals and perhaps even be a better shooter and all of those things are important.... but he isn't going to be near the defender Chet will be, nor will be be as well rounded. The value of a defender than is smart and defends multiple spots with a 7'6" wingspan (he is also supposedly still growing) is awesome if used properly. Teams can build their entire defense around Chet.

Personally if I were the Rockets or Pistons or even the Thunder, I would take Chet over Banchero or Smith.

This type of thinking isn't unique to Chet. I said the same thing when it came to Green versus Mobley. With someone like Mobley, you can get LESS points because you know you are getting defense and shot altering. Someone like Mobley can be a franchise type player at 18 points a game while someone like Green or Banchero have to get 25 a night to even be considered making the same impact... and to me that is a lot to ask anyone. I don't tend to like players that are really limited.

 

I was completely wrong about Mobley being able to make an immediate impact so I feel like Chet is in similar physical situation. These guys are giant wings like Andrei Kirilenko (AK47) as @Nook mentioned about Chet. They are like a class of unicorns unto themselves.

It really feels like the top of this draft is better than last years, but maybe that's because the top 3 are big man that are just different and interesting from each other.

 

They would be well sought after with Mobley doing so well.

Oh behold, there is a Nikola Jovic!

Mathurin and Baldwin. How good are they?

 

I agree with most of this but I think what sets a superstar apart is the ability to get a bucket at crunch time when the play breakdowns, I don't know if Chet can do that at the next level, I am not saying he cannot if he can do that he is the guy.

I just hope that we will have the ability to get any of these 3 guys in this draft.

 

This is the argument that people use against Nikola Jokic when putting him below the other superstars in the league. To me personally, the ability to get a bucket in crunch time doesn't matter that much as long as that said player can elevate his team to a point where the team doesn't even need to rely on crunch time heroics.

 

We know you can run the offense through Jokic we don't know that we Chet.

 

Like people said a million times before the draft that just because the last couple 7ftrs drafted high were busts doesn’t mean Mobley is a bust

Now that we know Mobley is the real deal doesn’t mean Chet is gonna be great like him

if you wanted Mobley you should have drafted him, drafting Chet doesn’t somehow make that come true

 

That's fair. Guess we'll have to wait to see.

 

Last few games have been ho hum from both. Did like the facilitating Banchero had a couple games ago.

 

Mobley is just a point of reference for the body/frame type, they are two different players on the court.

Drafting Chet would be due to his own abilities, which are very impressive.

 

This draft looks 4 deep with star talent. The rockets ending up at #3 or #4 is more than good enough for me. #3 means that we get one of Smith or Chet and #4 means we get Ivey, provided he isn't taken higher in which case we get one of the big boys.

Concerns about everyone are as follows:

Chet and Ivey have the same concern from me, low FT%. Especially given that they're the older top prospects. Christian Wood shows that while it is possible to be a passable Three Point shooter with a low FT%, it's far from ideal, and almost never turns out that way. Chet transforms from a useful offensive player to a liability without shooting, and Ivey degrades himself from a jacked Donovan Mitchell, to Russell Westbrook.

I question the fit of Sengun and Banchero, that may be the worst defensive frontcourt in the NBA. I also question Banchero's handle against NBA defenders with his sub-par wingspan.

Smith might just go #1 overall. Even if his handle doesn't turn into much, he's still well rounded player on both ends of the court.