https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-...sion-of-ukraine-11638811774?mod=hp_lead_pos10 Biden to Warn Putin Off Invasion of Ukraine U.S. president spoke Monday with European allies ahead of Tuesday talk with Russian leader By Alex Leary and Vivian Salama in Washington and Ann M. Simmons in Moscow Updated Dec. 6, 2021 10:36 pm ET WASHINGTON—President Biden spoke Monday with European allies ahead of a call with Vladimir Putin in which he will warn the Russian president not to invade Ukraine, officials said. Mr. Biden “will make clear that there will be very real costs should Russia choose to proceed, but he will also make clear that there is an effective way forward with respect to diplomacy,” a senior administration official said about the call with Mr. Putin scheduled for Tuesday. Ahead of that, Mr. Biden consulted with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, key members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization military alliance. The five “discussed their shared concern about the Russian military build-up on Ukraine’s borders and Russia’s increasingly harsh rhetoric,” a White House statement issued after the meeting said. Fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine grew last week, with U.S. officials citing new intelligence reports about a troop buildup on the border. The expected total force of 175,000 troops would be roughly twice the size of a buildup in the spring, officials said. The U.S. has shared that intelligence with allies, the senior U.S. official said. CIA Director William Burns, speaking at The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council Summit in Washington on Monday, said that intelligence agencies haven’t concluded if Mr. Putin will launch an invasion. The Russian leader is assembling a military force that “could act in a very sweeping way,” he said, and may see an opportunity to do so this winter. “I would never underestimate President Putin’s risk appetite on Ukraine,” Mr. Burns said. The U.S. has discussed with European partners about imposing sanctions, should Russia launch an invasion, the official said. Russia has denied it is preparing an invasion and has accused Washington of fomenting tension and destabilizing the region. The U.S. official wouldn’t discuss other actions besides sanctions, including a military response, available to the U.S. Monday’s White House statement said the five trans-Atlantic leaders “called on the Russia to de-escalate tensions.” The statement, however, didn’t mention sanctions. Instead, it said, the five transatlantic leaders endorsed existing diplomatic talks to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine, where Russia has backed separatist forces. On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russia’s Channel One state television channel that Mr. Putin was ready to listen to Mr. Biden’s proposals on settling the situation in Ukraine, but cautioned against excessive expectations. “I think that President Putin will listen to these offers with great interest, and it will be possible to understand to what extent they are able to ease tensions,” Mr. Peskov said. He said the only way to ease tensions would be for Russia to be assured that Kyiv wouldn’t try to resolve the problems in eastern Ukraine with the use of force. Mr. Peskov accused the West of demonstrating aggression toward Russia in its allegations that Moscow plans to invade its smaller neighbor. Also Monday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Mr. Biden was to speak with the Ukrainian leader following the call with Mr. Putin, officials said. Aside from the situation with Ukraine, Mr. Biden intends to raise with Mr. Putin issues of cybersecurity and Iran’s nuclear program. The Kremlin said it expected a lengthy discussion with themes to include implementation of understandings reached during the two leaders’ June summit, bilateral relations, Ukraine, mutual-security guarantees and expansion of NATO. Calls within Congress have been rising for Mr. Biden to send a signal to warn Mr. Putin from taking action against Ukraine. “We have to send some clear, unequivocal and powerful messages to Putin. And then the Ukrainians have a shot,” Sen. Bob Menendez (D., NJ), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said after a Monday night briefing on Capitol Hill. Mr. Menendez has offered a package of sanctions as part of an annual defense policy bill. In addition, he said, the administration should augment that by denying Russia access to Swift, the global financial banking transaction system. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), also speaking at the Journal’s CEO Council Summit, said: “We need to supply the Ukrainians with whatever weapons they think they need to defend themselves against the Russians.” For weeks, the Biden administration has been publicly expressing its concern over what it described as “large and unusual” Russian troop movements near the border with Ukraine. Messrs. Biden and Putin have publicly warned of consequences if the other acts. Mr. Putin said last week that the deployment of weapons or troops to Ukraine would cross a “red line” for Russia and prompt a strong response, including a potential deployment of Russian missiles targeting Europe. NATO allies have been working together to defuse the situation and formulate joint contingency plans should Russia decide to invade Ukraine. Biden administration officials have discussed options including steps to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses—such as providing more air defenses and other military support—and imposing tougher economic sanctions on Russia. Other options are designed to reduce the risk of a confrontation with Moscow, including constraining U.S. military exercises in Europe, which the Russians complain are provocative, and pausing military aid to Ukraine, the officials said. Write to Alex Leary at alex.leary@wsj.com, Vivian Salama at vivian.salama@wsj.com and Ann M. Simmons at ann.simmons@wsj.com Appeared in the December 7, 2021, print edition as 'Biden to Warn Putin on Ukraine.'
As well he should. If Russia invades we should impose crippling sanctions, give our NATO allies weapons galore, and ramp up our monitoring and pressure on them. Putin is an aggressive murderous S. O. B.
What does Putin want? That's the million dollar question. Is he really this slick intelligence agent mastermind, or is he a madman? Or did he used to be a slick intelligence guy but slips in and out of madman status as he gets more entrenched in power?? My guess is the latter. He's surrounded by yes men, but paranoid about betrayal & a coup. He's got unchecked power, but knows at any moment it all could be lost if he get taken out. At the same time he seems to be someone you can negotiate with, and will reason on some things if it's in his interest. You obviously cannot trust him, but can you still trust his interests?? Putin obviously had to know that the West would know of the provocation by sending a large number of troops to the Ukraine border in recent days. If he really was planning a D-Day type of attack then one would think he would be a little more strategic about it. So the obvious answer is he's trying to extract some leverage against the US and NATO. Playing the Kim Jung card to get a meeting and some goodies. Still Biden meeting with him to negotiate isn't a bad idea by any stretch. I still think there is hope that he hasn't gone completely insane yet, and there could be a treaty in play. One hopefully that curtails cybersecurity, and maybe sets a standard that potentially be leveraged to get China to the table in their own cybersecurity peace treaty. Giving Putin access to some oil export capabilities in the middle east, or maybe a spot back on the G7 in exchange for peace, and major eases in our Cyberwar that is draining this country in resources and killing our democracy.... would be a decent deal IMO. But this all comes down to the mental state of Vladamir Putin and if he's just a harsh negotiator willing to use war mongering tactics, or if he is truly losing it, and irrational. If he's truly losing it, and Biden detects that.... we might have bigger issues.
Wait... Russia pulled out of Ukraine? Or are they looking to take some more? This all seems to be gas related and a way to shore up nationalistic fervor among his base.
I think he wants Ukraine and he pretty much knows he can get it. What is the US really going to do if he invades? We've done sanctions on them numerous times going back to Obama. We sanction a handful of people and freeze some money, and then Russia keeps all the new land they got. Our European allies are too scared and dependent on Russia natural gas so they resist anything more (understandably so, since they are the ones at risk). It's the same reason we can't do anything to stop the Nord pipeline. I don't think Russia is remotely scared of the US at this point. If they think Trump might be President again in 2024, their goal is likely invade in the next couple of years, "negotiate" with the US for a while, and wait out Trump and then convince him to back down entirely. Realistically, if I were Putin, I'd coordinate with China and try to time my actions on the Ukraine with Chinese action on Taiwan and at a time when the US is preoccupied with domestic fights. Force the US into a position where we realistically can't respond assertively to both and paralyze the US government response. With as polarized as we are, any action we take or don't take will be criticized by whichever party is not in power - the whole politics ends at waters' edge thing is no longer true here, so it will sow more dissension and chaos here. If I'm the US, I put ground forces in the Ukraine now (ideally through NATO) - create a situation where if Russia invades, they'll be attacking US and European troops directly. That might be the only realistical deterrent.
Putin doesn’t care. He knows the west won’t do anything. What did the west do when he invaded Ukraine the first time? What the did the west do when he invaded Georgia? He knows the west won’t risk a full out military conflict.
it is almost too late for that any signs of troop deployment and Russia invades. They are already staged on the border. It would take weeks for the international community to gather the resources to station a base in Ukraine. By that time Russia will already invade. This is like the precursor of world war two all over again
yesterday, The U.S. Treasury announced that it will begin developing regulations that could expand reporting requirements for all-cash real estate purchases as part of the Biden administration’s efforts to cut down on global corruption, specifically the Russian oligarchs who have laundered Putin's wealth in the US the new scrutiny being paid to real estate transactions was part of a broader push at the department to stop corrupt practices that intersect with the U.S. financial system. The Treasury is also implementing a new law requiring U.S. and foreign companies to disclose the identity of the persons who actually own and control the businesses when they are formed, registered in the U.S. or change hands
Oh yeah I mean Putin was working as a KGB agent when the Berlin Wall fell, and he's been open about how he feels about the fall of the Soviet Union, and how he wants to reform it back to it's glory days. Ukraine is the first big domino that he and other pro-Soviet's believe will recrack the code to their glory days. As long as Russia continues to suffer economically, there will always be sentiment in that country to blame UK and the US for their economic woes because of them "not allowing" the Soviet States to reform the Union. That sentiment is what initially got him into power in the first place. Still you have the issue of "winning the hearts and minds" and Putin (if he's smart) has to prefer a non-violent revolution inside the former Soviet States like Ukraine. Russian forces bombing schools of children in Latvia probably wouldn't move them politically into wanting to be a part of Putin's new Soviet Union. .... On the Russia/China relationship, they have a very complicated relationship where they just as likely to go to war with each other than they are to team up against the US/Europe. If the Soviet reforms and becomes a global superpower again, that's NOT good for China's play to be the uncontested #1 superpower in the world. China very much prefers Russia to just be the annoying step son of the world who keeps stealing out of moms purse. Do your thing to destabilize the West, but don't get too powerful. In the end, Biden, or any American president just needs to keep negotiations like this focused on carrots and sticks for these leaders individually, and hopefully in ways that do not lead them to each other's doorstep. If you have a way to PROVE that Russia can be a player on the global scale but in a much more peaceful way to the world then you make that case even if there are concessions that have to be made (ala some oil fields in Syria, G7 privileges, etc.) and you deal with China speaking to their interests. I don't think you can convince Putin that restoring ole Soviet Glory isn't a good idea, but if you can show peaceful alternatives to getting something just as good in the long-run, and you have Putin's head on straight, I think there is room to still be optimistic. A few brutal murders and poisonings later, we all live in the reality of wondering if Putin's head is on straight for the sake of the world.
This is exactly what I'm talking about. "Regulations" aren't going to scare Russia. So we put sanctions on a handful of Russian oligarchs. So what? They still have their money and their power. Laundering wealth can be done elsewhere in the world, or now with crypto, fairly easily that way. They probably can't step foot in the US, but the rest of the world is likely free game for them. If they do want to step foot in the US, getting false paperwork is likely not hard for billionaires. Worst case, they get caught and likely shipped back to Russia and let go.
The US and our Allies crippled their economy, and we supplied Ukraine with military capabilities to defend itself. The fact that Putin went so hard in cyberwarfare is a pretty clear indication that he does prefer an intelligence/political solution. I wouldn't just discount our response as nothing, but I also don't think our response really mattered as much as some might think. I think his attack on Democracy through Cyber is key because it is targeted first and foremost at showing Ukraine, Latvia, Belarus, etc. that Democracy sucks more than it is about showing Trump voters that Democracy sucks.... even though what Putin got out of Trumpers here in the US has to be WAAYYYY BEYOND expectations. His cyberwar seems to be his staple, and I think that is telling. He wants to change people's minds through disinformation and political means. Him halting military efforts in favor of doubling down on cyber post 2012 when the world responded is an important inflection point. That being said, do I think Putin is scared of the US or Europe's responses.... not necessarily....actually not really.... but I do think he is focused on his objectives and his objectives don't align well if he has to bomb schools of children in Latvia in order to regain Soviet Glory. A US response is likely more focused on Ukrainians fighting which means... innocent people getting killed which doesn't play well to his political strategy of a proud Soviet Union reformation. Honestly.... the most important thing America can do beyond what Biden or Trump or whoever can do... is showing countries like Latvia, Ukraine, Georgia, etc. that Democracy is still pretty damn great.
I don't think the US is pursuing active fighting in Ukraine either. It essentially becomes a proxy-war, and it's something they tried hard to avoid appearing they had a direct hand in the first time. So they'll probably freeze more assets and restrict diplomatic recognition that Putin desires. The warning itself is probably a veiled threat to sell more weapons openly to Ukraine, but it's not a long term thing even if folks here want it. Putin himself wouldn't want to go down that path in the long term either as domestic support will ripple when breadlines and bodybags starts converging on the (100B?) business empire he's tightly cornered.
Putin won't invade Ukraine unless he has nothing to come back with. If he does invade, it almost guarantees the expansion of NATO and will result in severe economic sanctions. More likely, he wants the concession from Biden to never make Ukraine part of NATO and for Europeans to buy Russian petroleum products. Biden wants to appear strong, and while it's impossible to give the guarantee Putin is speaking, he needs to get Ukraine to guarantee it won't create or seek out an alliance with the west. Given that this is Russias second build up and threat, it's probably a more dangerous one, and the West has to find a way for Putin to walk back with some kind of victory if they do not want him to actually invade.
I am not a fan of Putin. One of the greatest victories for out hawks was when we had our chance to enroll Russia in NATO and we broke our promise not to extend NATO east ward. Suppose an anti-US alliance of Russia, China, Iran etc talked of admitting Mexico to their alliance and possibly putting nukes on the US Mexican border. Would we view it a threat.? Hey, the whole story is sort of war p*rn and it draws eyeballs to the media. I am sure our "defense" industry would be excited to supply some profitable weapons so the Ukraines can fight to the last man for the imagined war that has virtually no chance of happening. No need to get in a lather.
It amazes me when I see people advocate for putting pressure on Russia and increasing diplomatic pressure other folks start accusing them of wanting war. It's as if their mind and problem solving abilities are so limited that they can only possibly imagine two solutions... Do nothing or all out war. Broaden your horizon, folks. There are a whole range of options.
