There's always things on the horizon. Whether Fed tapering (softening demand) is the right answer to inflation for what some economists believe are driven by supply constraints. How the businesses that over-ordered across seas to mitigate supply issues can handle the influx/glut of inventory when things normalize. Whether there will be a normalization with new variants creeping around the corner. I do know that markets are up. Employment is up. Average American wealth is up (wages or stimulus). Leverage in markets and crypto is also way up. Housing on average looks it could go either way though it's historically over valued. Urban brick n mortar and commercial real estate looking softer and softer as covid fears push demanding remote work. As for the debt...MMT till we emmty If they can get away with passing another reconciliation package next year, that'll be even another T or 2 dumped into the money supply.
I agree with that, but the issue is the consequential 2022 election which really is heading into it's most consequential 6 month period. Candidates are already being picked, issues being carved out, etc. Biden's approval in the next 6 months is actually pretty damn important because of the way our national politics meter sways. Also if things are pretty darn good in a way that allows the left to tune out and enjoy their lives, it actually can create worse problems for Democrats in turnout issues on the right because we know that Fox is going to gin up their base guaranteed. If 2022 is a red wave election, we are looking at a dire 2 years for Biden where he surely will be impeached for farting in the wind, the Republicans will run on him getting nothing done/overreach with executive orders, and the state house Republicans will be well suited to do all the things that Trump's regime wanted to do in 2020 to disrupt or straight up overturn Democracy. So while I think that you are very right.... 3 years is a long time... the consequences of the next 6 months (forget just the Biden presidency) couldn't have higher stakes. In 3 years with Trump on the ballot against Biden in a thriving economy that put Covid to rest.... yeah... that a recipe in normal times for Democrats to clean House in 2024. But with Trump having a loyal majority in the senate, a super majority in the House, Governorships in all key swing states, loyal secretaries of state in all swing states, and loyal nuts at the state house level in all swing states..... All Bets are Off. I think the next 6 months are some of the most important moments of our Democracy in alot of way much less the Biden presidency. We are kind of in a fragile moment.
This is the part that is most concerning to me. People like David Purdue in GA and all the crazies in AZ are in a position to win governorships. These are people that openly supported overturning the election. A lot of similar people are running for Sec of State in these places. If they win, and then Trump runs, its hard to see how they get out of the pickle they put themselves in. If Dems win those states in 2024, you'd have the key leadership in those states being Trump-servants likely aiming to overturn the results. That's where I think you have the potential for the concept of democracy to fail in 2024. If we no longer trust our elections, then we are basically just a 3rd world corrupt democracy/faux-dictatorship.
well, in this horrible scenario, what’s the reaction? Let’s game this out. trump loses election but his surrogates in state offices pull shenanigans , refuse to certify and instead trump ends up declared winner (the scenario avoided in 2020). Trumpers have congressional control too. I wonder what the reaction would be. By the people. Nationally? Locally? It breaks the dam, protests and rioting, people wake the eff up, Dems turn out in force for 2026 but country is wrecked for the intervening two years. It’s a scary proposition and not far fetched at all, the country needs to wake up.
The people would surely protest in a way that makes even the Women's March look small. I think it would be a very important moment where there would need to be a concerted effort by basically all Democracy supporting Americans to essentially put GLOBAL business on hold. Americans would need to show force as a consumer in a way that then forces businesses around the country to weigh in while they have the power to do so. Trump doesn't have control of corporate America the way that Xi or Putin have control of their countries business community in the event that there are massive protests that bring the countries economy to a halt. There's also a short window where the control of the military is out of reach for Trump in this scenario. .... However if Trump and the GOP are able to create a cloud of confusion the more that it works in their advantage. They need it to look wonky and convoluted which is the real issue here..... if the Republicans win big in 2022 they have the ability to make this happen in a way that is very convoluted via the second slate of electors, and with the House under GOP control having the ability to call a vote under the 12th amendment to just vote themselves on a state by state basis. If it's clear the American people what is happening is happening.... holy crap... I think the world will protest (not just America) in a way that forces some sort of correction. If the media fails in educating people about what a coup looks like from a wonky convoluted way, it could just confuse people and them not really having a chance to understand what the hell just happened. So not alot here to feel good about. 2022 has just massive stakes, and so important more than anything that at the state level people understand how important those down ballot races are, and even if you are a "leans conservative" person, if you enjoy Democracy, pay attention to the MAGA people being put on the ballot for the sheer purpose of overturning a bad result for Trump at the state level. This isn't an election where someone that falls in that category of an "independent" voter can just vote down ballot.
I 100% agree. I think if 2022 goes the GOP way and Trump runs again, the nation is irreparably broken. Whoever wins in 2024 will not be trusted in that scenario. We can't have a standad civil war because it's now largely an urban vs rural division in this country, so states can't really pick a side. But the country will be broken in some way or another - and I'm not sure how it would get fixed. You already have the beginnings of a breakdown with state governments routinely suing the Feds on any number of policies (immigration, mandates, etc), and the Feds suing the states on any number of others (masks, education, voting, etc), the Oklahoma National Guard suing the Pentagon, etc.
We are a very divided country …I hate you, you hate me. Where’s the love? Who can bring us together when both political sides have less in common than we ever have…There is too much visceral absolute hate.
Yea it’s tough. I worry for our children…they didn’t ask for this mess but we are way way too divided. There has been too much violence and too much bloodshed affecting civilians; all needless in the name of the game of politics on both sides ..Is there honestly any other country as divided as ours currently?
Republicans taking back Congress (whether it's the Senate or House or both is immaterial as long as it's at least one of them) was always baked into the equation. Whether they take it back by 1 vote or 50, it doesn't matter for the goal of gridlock. Hell, they don't even own Congress and it's still gridlocked for the most part. Impeach Biden all you want, it will only improve his ratings. If he's removed by partisans? That'll create the biggest electoral blowback we've seen since Obamacare. The next 6 months don't matter because those die were cast the moment Biden won. What matters now is whether COVID settles into endemic status or has some kind of wild mutation/flareup that causes another 2020 Winter scenario. The crappy part is that is almost completely out of our control. But the door to that will remain open until and unless we can get vaccines to the developing world at cost. So, TL;DR - there is no scenario in which the table for the 2024 Trump coup will not be set. The only way we avoid massive unrest and bloodshed in 2024 is if Trump wins legitimately or Biden wins by a nearly cartoonish margin. (In other words, we're all basically ****ed)
I tend to agree with almost all of this unfortunately. Regarding Covid... I'm not the worlds most religious person in the world, but it's sort of in God's hands now because mankind failed itself on so many levels. The virus has to mutate to a more common cold like virus or we are going to see very real population decreases that actually hurt really bad for 10 to 20 years because of who is affected (hint... not the rich and powerful). But in short, yes I think there's a chance to have a global vaccination effort that helps at least settle down to a livable level. It is sort of out of anyone's hands but Biden will get the blame or the reward regardless politically. And yes I do think Biden being impeached would actually help him but I'm telling you now.... there is almost nobody left to tell the folks in charge of the GOP that it's a stupid idea politically cause I don't think the Marjorie Taylor Greenes really care anymore and there's no telling how many more Bobberts or Greene's will get elected in 22.
Yeah, it really is in God's hands. RNGesus take the wheel! I think you laid out the perfect doomer scenario. Biden impeached. Liberals outraged. Trump runs again. Trump vs. Kamala/Buttigieg/Whatever. Trump barely loses or barely wins. The courts and other govt bodies decide the election. Riots in the streets. Organized attacks/bombings at government seats start taking place all over. People flee cities. Purple states descend into chaos.
The GOP is the one hell bent on dividing the country. Racist/Bigotry/Doing everything to Enrich the WEALTHY/Taking away women's rights is all they stand for. When the Right's HERO is the main one fanning the fire, nothing will change.
The breakdown will happen when the dysfunction creeps from home into work and other countries begin to pay serious attention by not servicing our debt. The world runs on dollars, but being pegged to a bipolar crackpot will likely make them do something stupid like adopt a centrally backed crypto currency or authorize real printing power to central banks (eliminating the traditional separation of fiscal and monetary policy away from one institution) I would like to think we are several years and trillions away from this but social distress accelerates the downward tug as no one capable or responsible is left manning the wheel.
I actually think the worst scenario would be the media failing to call it what it is, people just sort of sinking into disbelief/disregard, and we sink into a sort of Russia-like governing society. The corrupt politicians and the Oligarchs just decide who they'll back as president behind closed doors based on who is going to get them what they want, and who will do the most damage to business if they lose. It's technically a Democracy, but we all know who pulls the levers. The C-Corp/Billionaire class decides to back the sham for self interest. European Democracy crumbles over time. China becomes undisputed world power, we are all just worker robots, etc etc etc. I'm not saying chaos and bombings would be good... yes that would be worse, and used to prove a point that the left is dangerous and antifa is a threat that requires giving Trump more military power (ala how Hitler used Antifa in Germany to get more military power), but a nonchalant response of "oh-well... at least we have a new Chick Fil A coming to our neighborhood" would just sort of prove that us Americans really were nothing special, and would be a slap in the face to the greatest generation that fought for freedom during WW2. It would be a moral defeat of sorts which defeats the whole ideal of America in a way.
Ummm.... do you want to bet on which committee Gym Jordan will be a chair for?? How many Marjorie Taylor Greene's do you think are going to get elected?? I will say this... Marjorie Taylor Greene wasn't lying when she said the "we aren't the fringe, we are the base." I mean yes it would be politically stupid, and would help Biden, but I really just do not believe that the majority of the House Republicans are the brightest bunch of political savants in the world. They hate Democrats more than they love this country, and I do believe they'll want that revenge for Trump getting impeached for sure. I guess we just have to see how well Trump's primary challengers do in Republican districts. My bet now though that i'll make is that there will be much much more MTG's than there are "reasonable" Republicans, and 2023/24 is going to be about chaos and disruption in the House first and foremost. However they can bring down government to a screeching halt, they will. Feel free to disagree and make a case for reasonable Republicans who are politically savvy to control the tides of the GOP House in 2023/24.
You are sure looking at this from a worse-case scenario and you are basing this on the fact you think Trump will have that much sway over the Republican party come 2024. That's a long way away, if they can turn on Reagan they can turn on Trump and that's if he is not dead or in a wheelchair by then. The rhetoric that Democracy is in Danger is a bit overblown IMO.
