I would say you want neither. Middle relief is the most fickle position and easiest/cheapest thing to acquire at the trade deadline or late in the offseason when you have all the leftover players available that fell through the cracks and missed out on bigger contracts as teams filled their payroll needs. I don't get this line of thinking at all if you're talking about the bright outlook for the next 5 years. If people think Correa at $210MM/6 yrs helps maximize the odds of the Astros winning a WS, then $300MM/10 increases that even further by reducing payroll the next 6 years. The added risk is entirely in 2027-2030, when we have no idea if the Astros will be any good anyway or what player pay will be like. It may be a huge drag or if may be a very managable contract. But if the focus is on winning a WS the next 5 years, then those two deals aren't materially different to achieving that goal (the longer deal may be slightly better). If one is a good deal, so is the other.
For reference, here all the relievers who were free agents last year, their WAR, when they signed, etc: https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-mlb-free-agents-by-position You had lots of upper-tier guys signing in Jan/Feb for much smaller deals. Here's the list so far for this year's free agency: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2021-22-free-agents-by-position There are endless decent/good options out there, and most will likely sign for less than $5MM/yr and likely on 1-year deals if last year is any kind of indication.
That assumes that there’s some point in time where Houston’s odds of winning drop precipitously. When will that be? When Correa leaves? Altuve, Bregman? Tucker, Alvarez? There’s no reason to assume that Houston is doomed at some future tipping point when a certain player or players get old or leave, and that any committed spending beyond that point has no impact on their ability to win another World Series. If you analyze where Houston is now against where they were when (or before) this run started, theres plenty of reason to think Houston might be just as likely to win a World Series in 2027 as they are in 2022.
Relax dude, I"m not suggesting that it's the skeleton key to figuring out player value. I'm just suggesting that it happens to be consistent with the number they gave him, which is also consistent with the change in peripherals after the tweak and the market demand. It's a back-of-the-napkin calculation, not meant as some sort of granular measurement. Grind that axe elsewhere.
Your screeching response to me was a response to WAR generally, not a response to last year versus this year, and you know that. It was such a silly response to a single piece of information that fit a larger valuation puzzle. You just need to relax.
Agree with this. The Astros picked up a controllable Stanek for $1 million and added a guy like Yimi Garcia for someone who was probably 9th or so in the outfield pecking order. A buddy of mine who’s a Braves fan said this was the only guy he didn’t like seeing out of the Philly pen. Seems to line up with Phillies fan comments. I do like his potential against lefties, and it doesn’t seem they need to handle him with bubble wrap like Graveman.
But questioning his moves isn't hating him. Unlike what Jiggyfly thinks. The reason he had to trade away prospects last year to re-build the bullpen was because he missed on Baez. The reason he wasn't able to add a starting pitcher was because of the money wasted he wasted on Baez/Castro. I dont like the Neris signing, particularly because he not only looks like a slightly above avg RP, but for the money it closes the door on Correa. Also if you think Graveman is the better RP (Which I do think this) then you just give Graveman another year. I get that Click is a young GM and is learning on the job. But now is the Golden Era of Astros baseball and this isn't the time that you can make the learning on the job excuse. He was given the keys to the kingdom and so far I dont think he's done a terrible job. He's done a job that a young learning GM would do. Overpaying middle of the road RP's isn't a formula for long term success. IMHO and he's done that for two consecutive offseasons now.
I don’t agree at all with the notion that Click is making rookie mistakes. But if he is going to make mistakes, wouldn’t we all prefer them to be on $10M-$20M deals rather than $100M+ deals? The idea that Baez (or Castro) prevented Houston from making some deadline move that would have won them the WS is silly. Which traded player making ~$9M would have been that kind of difference maker? Houston didn’t have the prospects to get Scherzer or Berrios, and those are the only 2 guys I think might’ve been the difference against the Braves. Click has been GM for a crazy pandemic year and 1 normal season. In that time the team has gone to a World Series (largely due to deadline moves he made to upgrade the bullpen), and the farm has improved significantly. For an Astros fan to say Click has been anything other than awesome is some odd kind of sadism.
Signing Neris does not close the door on signing Correa. 10/yr 300+M does. If Correa will sign the 6 year contract offer on the table, there are many ways the Astros can accommodate that. You are overreacting to an iffy signing at worst and maybe a great signing. If Neris works out our BP will be among the best in baseball. And by the way, Baez may be pretty good too.
The window can be extended even further because if they hit on Luhnow's picks of Pena/Lee and Click's signing of Leon then there will be top tier talent to replace the guys leaving. Click really needs to use the Correa money to sign Tucker/Alvarez to long term deals and trade/draft/sign for pitching. That's if Brown/Whitley/Dubin/The guy Click drafted two years ago doesn't hit. God Luhnow left Click in such good shape.
He could have saved that 9 mil and traded the 8 that he wasted on Odorizzi and signed a solid SP like say Musgrove (I'm using this as an example) to give them 5 or so solid innings in the playoffs per start and that would've been enough to win a WS. IMHO
I've come to the realization Corrae is gone. You should too, hope I'm wrong. Doubtful on Baez, his velocity was declining before he got here and I dont see an uptick after an injury plagued year. I'm hopeful on Neris but would've rather had the more proven guy in Graveman for the money. Nobody is really talking about the elephant in the room when it comes to working with the pitchers. (Losing Strom)
Oh, I didn’t mean to imply that I’m a Correa at all costs guy. In fact, I think Bryant would be a much better get. I was just responding to the idea that the Neris signing is the nail in the coffin for a Correa signing. If we could sign Bryant for 5/125m it is incredible insurance for multiple positions. We can live with a year of Tucker in Center until Leon, Myers, McCormick, or Siri prove themselves. Bryant is insurance for Brantley, Gurriell, and Bregman.
If the market was willing to give Correa 10 years, $350M, he would have already signed somewhere. The glut of elite shortstops available is giving every team leverage. Also, comparing Drayton McLane’s tenure as owner with Jim Crane’s is comparing apples to oranges. McLane never authorized a luxury tax payroll between $180-$200M like Crane has maintained during much of this golden age. The Astros always operated like a run-of-the-mill, middle-market team under McLane. Under Crane, they are operating like a upper-to-big market team, and all this winning has significantly increased the organization’s revenue stream. The Astros got to the point they did under McLane because he never wanted to rebuild and allowed the farm system to become very depleted over time. The Astros were also one of the oldest teams in baseball towards the end of the Bagwell/Biggio era. Under Crane, the Astros have the financial resources to afford such a contract to Correa and still field a World Series caliber team. In fact, they had a player making $33M per season that didn’t contribute in 2020 and 2021. The team still made it to game 7 of the ALCS and game 6 of the World Series.
Incorrect. I like WAR. I don't like the 1 WAR = 8 million for analyzing free agents signings or trades. That is the formula I don't like using and why I said "WAR/money stat" and called that formula "garbage". I'm relaxed. You chose which WAR to use to evaluate the Neris contract. I pointed out the immediate problem with it based on using the same WAR/money calculation on Graveman. Apparently you were offended by that. Sorry....
I still think Luhnow was the best GM in the business, but Click was probably the best hire the Astros could have made. He's proven himself in Tampa Bay and he's made more good decisions than bad while here. I think Baez is the only bad move he's made. He should have made an aggressive offer to Correa before the season in the 7 year 220-240 range.
The next time Click spends smartly will be the first (very mild hyperbole but huge grain of truth). All of his big money deals you would get out of right now if you could and we’d be better for it. Brantley, Odo, Baez 30+ million a year. That could be springer or Correa for the year. Now we sign this JAG for 8 million a year. If you dumped all those guys you could afford Marte AND Bryant this year and next. Instead he keeps wasting money on positions we don’t even need (arms- we have plenty- we can get more at the deadline if we need more).
