I understand and respect that. The "other ace" in my fantasy, BTW (since you asked "who is moved for him?"), was Chas McCormick + Bryan Abreu (and maybe a throw-in) for Chris Bassitt.
Is Mullins really *that* good? He would seem like a strong regression to the means candidate, granted I don’t know a ton about him.
With Marte off the board, who does Click go after next? Any other good CF? Or does he go the trade route? I wonder what Houston's offer was for Marte.
Only other free agent I would want in CF is Chris Taylor. I don't see it happening because he would cost the Astros their 2nd pick and 500k in international signing money. Hope for a trade if you want a CF upgrade because that seems like the only real path now. Looks to me like McCormick/Siri until Meyers is back....
I wouldn't trade Luis García straight up for Cedric Mullins much less including the rest of that proposed haul.
Mullins and Reynolds would likely be priced out of our range. Fantasizing is fun but I think Click wants to save plenty of ammo for the deadline. I can honestly see Bryant being at least looked into, but there would be questions about the quality of defense whichever way they're aligned. I really wish Jeff McNeil could play at least a serviceable SS or CF. I think he'll be on the trade block with all these acquisitions, and he would be a decent left handed hitting bench player.
I'd love to see Ketel Marte on this team. He's an MVP-caliber player when it all comes together. He had over a .900 OPS in both 2019 and 2021. Also versatile defensively in that he can play both infield and outfield.
Whoever ends up being Houston’s 7th hitter on opening day should be measured against Starling Marte; $78M/4yrs is a lot, but very reasonable for a guy coming off a superstar caliber season, and the Astros could have afforded that. Story, Bryant, Pham, Semien, Seager, and Correa are really the only remaining impact position player free agents I think Houston should be interested in. I guess Conforto would also make some sense if he was willing to sign cheap enough to make it worth playing Tucker in CF.
Entirely agree with your first point - $19.5 for 4 years was a salary that fit the budget and the general desire to limit years, while upgrading a position. I'd narrow your list to the 4 shortstops. Pham has played very little CF since 2018 - and his bat is worse than Meyers/McCormick. He's a downgrade. Bryant is a bat upgrade but he plays a corner spot and I'd rather target players that don't require moving Tucker to CF.
Pham would be somewhat of an upside play based on his ability to stay healthy and be viable in CF (at least to start most games). But he surely projects to be much better offensively than McCormick/Meyers. Pham projects for a 114 wRC+, whereas Meyers for 98 and McCormick for 93. That’s a significant difference. Pham isn’t the free agent I am most hoping for by any stretch, but if he was willing to sign an inexpensive short term deal (something like $19M/2yr plus incentives) then I think he’s a good fit for the Astros. Bryant is very likely to be too expensive to make sense for Houston, but he’s similar to Pham in that I would be willing to take on the risk of him being able to handle CF to start most games, especially just for 2022.
Where do your numbers on Pham come from? He’s hit .229 and .211 in consecutive seasons, without much power. He’s also going to be 34 on opening day. Meyers / McCormick were better last year than that and both are more natural CFs. Just don’t see the upside on a mid-30s guy like that.
Pham had injuries that had an impact on his last 2 seasons (sapped his power). Steamer projects him for .258/.354/.429 next season (114 wRC+) which is closer to his career line. He certainly carries risk, given his age, injury history, and that he’s not played CF recently. But for a guy who was worth 13.7 fwar from 2017-2019, there’s some upside there, considering his expected price.
Even at the exact same salary I'm going with Meyers over Pham as an "upside" play. Not to say I don't see a good value play in Pham, but it's mainly as a platoon with Brantley and depth if we include Chas in a trade. Unless there is a serious issue with Meyers shoulder there's no way I'm letting a 34 year old steal AB's from him. Frankly I think Chas might be an outright better player for that role next season. Now that Marte is off the board, there are no free agents good enough to replace Meyers 2 way upside.
