Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

Can someone explain how Carlos led the league in WAR? The numbers themselves were good, but not outlandish IMO.

 

His defensive numbers at SS were way up there

 

I would say that after the Yankees and Tigers both came out and said they won't spend 300 million on one player has slightly increased the odds of Correa returning.

I think it puts the Astros in a bit of a pickle. If they run out and sign another big free agent like Marte, Bryant, etc. but the Correa market never deveolps Astros' fans will be mad if he signs for 7 years 210 million somewhere else.

 

Yeah. I would say if one of those things happens first, I would be happiest with Correa staying. Even though a free agent CF would be nice. It's really only an option to look at if Correa leaves. I'd like to think the Astros would know 100% that Correa is gone before they look to upgrade at CF.

 

I dont post a crap ton in this forum but have been on board 20+ years. Anyway, Take it with a grain of salt but I have an in-law that would be in a position to occasionally hear something I guess. He is not a big sports guy but he says his "friend" is almost 100% that Correa is staying.

 

If Detroit and Yanks are out of the running... give him a front loaded deal with generous opt out clauses.

 

I would definitely say that the rumors and activity over the last few weeks have seemed to indicate the odds are probably higher than most people think that Correa will sign with Houston. I think the uncertainty of the CBA would make it more appealing for Correa to come back on a frontloaded 5-6 year deal with an opt out (or multiple opt outs).

 

Actually, if you want to do business like a Mexican Industrialist... if the Tigers and Yankees are out of the running... then we should lower the contract offer. If Correa is out of viable mega-contract options and we honor the original 5-year $160M offer, then we are generous.

 

I love Correa and really nope he stays

I also think any team that signs him greatly increases their chances to win a world series, or two, or three

BUT

I can also understand teams saying I would love to have Correa, but if I can get another very good SS for several less years, and 100 million less (or more) it can give me a better chance of putting together a team that can win for a long time

I've thought from day 1 that the number of really good SS being available at the same time was gonna hurt Correa. I keep reading the experts saying it's gonna hurt the second tier guys more, but I still don't think so. I think very few teams would prefer to go 10 years and 300 million to upgrade from the Baez/Story/Siemian group to Correa/Seager

 

Defense counts

WAR = (The quantity of runs above average that an MLB player is worth in baserunning, fielding, and batting + position adjustment + league adjustment + the number of runs replacement level players perform) runs per win


Basically he's the best defender at the most premium position in baseball. Add to that he's one of the top 3 or 4 hitters at SS in the majors...its a powerful combo.

For reference, Adam Everett had an 11 year MBL career and he only was above .700 OPS twice (and barely) in that span. He had an 11 year career because he was a plus defender. He also was nowhere near as good a defender as Correa.

 

You are correct that Everett could not hit himself out of a wet paper bag. Correa had a really good season in 2021 defensively. He put up 2.9 dWar and had 20 DRS. For his career, Correa has 67 DRS in 6553 innings. Those are good numbers. However, by comparison, Everett had 119 DRS in 6764 innings. He also had a season (2006) where he put up 34 DRS. That season he put up 4.1 dWar. He had another season where he put up 3.3 dWar and 25 DRS. Nothing against Correa, he is a great player, and may very well get better. But to say that Everett was nowher near as as good a defender as Correa is just not true

 

Absolutely correct

https://www.billjamesonline.com/stats88/

 

Everett was an absolute wizard at short, absolute atrocity he has no gloves or even YouTube highlights

 

Outrageous for Syndergaard to be that pissed at Correa’s comments about Jeter. 2017 scandal aside, all Correa did was say straight facts. Career DRS of -162, positive DRA in only one of the Gold Glove seasons, and even then it wasn’t that high bore the best in the AL. His range was bad for a SS, and he absolutely should have been moved the 3rd instead of A Rod. And don’t even get me started on how he always had to make most plays look more flashy than necessary.

 

So since you dont ever post any crap ton here, we should all believe that your in-law's friend is saying Correa is gonna stay?

 

I never get tired of seeing this.

 

He was relaying info - he never told you to believe him. He literally said just the opposite - "Anyway, Take it with a grain of salt..."