Why Don't Democrats Talk About The Unemployment Rate

Memes on Facebook are the only truth

 

But, inflation is the highest its been in a while and that's what the average American sees. Gas is higher, food is higher, stuff is higher, etc. Cargo ships and supplies are backed up. Home prices are high. I'd love to sell my house as it has almost doubled in 3 years, but then we'd have to buy a new one.

Democrats can scream that unemployment rate has declined and the stock market is at all time highs and Republican voters aren't going to listen.

In your opinion, what should the Democrats be saying that would make independent and Republican voters see the sunny side of the street?

 

IMO, the Democrats have been handling this well by not pushing a narrative. Narratives are stupid as they leave out the nuance in lieu of 10 second sound bytes and meaningless graphs. They dont need to brag about record high stock markets, which that in itself means little, and when the news is talking about massive labor shortages, it does you absolutely no good to talk about low employment numbers. Democrats can't push the 4% unemployment rate with massive labor shortages. The conversation will quickly turn into why do we not have a near 0% unemployment rate. Neither party wants to acknowledge the unemployment indicator model is broken.

The economy is in terrible shape right now. We can't claim the economy is 'not bad' when commodities are having massive transitory inflation spikes across the spectrum and basic staples have gone up 25% over the last year. Capital is pouring into assets. Millionaires are becoming billionaires. Billionaires are moving from 3 commas to 4 commas. Musk is almost 1/3 of a way to becoming a trillionaire. Banks are full of cash. People have built up some of the largest personal bank account reserves while paying down their debt burdens. Demand has been dropping. We have gone from a Weimar Germany hyperinflation narrative, now to high inflation and moving into stagnation. The Deflationist narrative is now coming back out to play. People do not feel comfortable taking on debt at this point.
As for the global economy, the dollar continues to strengthen against currencies that are in a hyperinflationary death spiral. As many of these currencies are backed by the USD, its exasperating the death spiral. The Boliver and Lebanese Pound are wiped out and the Lira is being crushed right now.

So yes, in a single snapshot, most of the people reading this will say the economy is 'not bad', just as the 1%ers during the 20's said it was 'not bad'. The reality is the whole global economy is becoming very unbalanced...and we can look back in history to see what happens during the occurrences.

This is why I believe a programmable UBI currency is right around the corner.

 

My 2 cents..

All of those are true, but Americans also think the economy is doing badly. Some incorrectly think it's hasn't been this worse since the great recession. It's related - they see inflation and think that means the economy must be doing horrible. A simple message is prices are going up because the economy is too hot. Now that will confuse everyone lol.

Here is a chart that also will confuse people. Income has gone up 6% since 2019 Q4 (inflation-adjusted!). So yes, inflation is high but because real income has jumped, you are still better off. Of course, there is a potential mini lie here - I haven't dug into the data so I'm not sure - this real income spike could just be a temporary spike due to the massive parachuting of money to people. Think 40% of children have been lifted from poverty. But then the other argument is high inflation is also temporary.



Anyhow, Dem could stick to a few simple messages that might work
1- Inflation is high because the economy is too hot... it will settle down and come into equilibrium.
2- While inflation is high, real income has exceeded inflation by 6%. You are better off.

 

Believe me, I agree. But if you ask the average American, they won't get it. And Republicans will rail against any positive Democratic talking points.

 

for the education of Space Ghost

you've just identified some of the characteristic of a healthy economy.
​

a baseless claim, as evidenced by your lack of eg

you have cut-n-paste the wrong content.

earth to space ghost,

"demand has been dropping" has the effect on lowering the inflation rate.
the US economy, even w the pandemic and closing, has been growing. w the BBB signed into law, the economy will grow even faster​

you lack the mental capacity to understand economics

you don't even understand the economics attendant to the US. stop pretending that you understand economics

another cup-n-paste job

 

I think American do get it, but they aren't willing to. We do have two bubbles. I laugh when I look at this chart (I think last updated in May 2021)

 

Dems should lay down the simple facts,

supply chain delays/hiccups have been the major cause of inflation.
they have been improving a bit, and the new infrastructure bill will help immensely toward expediting the supply chains​

 

facts? what are those?

 

That Donald Trump had a witch doctor switch him and Joe Biden’s bodies so that he could take out the secret democratic ring of cannibalistic pedophiles from the inside.

 

Our entire education system is in crisis, since the only subject taught to second graders in CRT by communists.

 

This is all fascinating to me. People are happy with their personal situation and finances but believe the economy is bad. Consumer sentiment and confidence is low but people are still out spending money. Workers are quitting jobs at record numbers and anyone that wants a job can get a job. Markets are at all time highs and up 40% since the election.

It’s almost as if people are addicted to being angry and negative and won’t acknowledge that things aren’t bad out there.

 

Nah, I don't believe that. During the Trump Admin, they did a very good job of keeping low unemployment rates and good stock returns in the news for a sustained amount of time (until covid cratered it, essentially). Why can't Biden's Admin do the same? --Unless the theory here is that low unemployment propping up Trump's chances at reelection is actually the bad news that people crave.

Shows people have no clue.

 

That's not the theory . Media coverage for Trump for 4 years has been overwhelmingly negative, pre and post-Covid. Probably even more than Biden. Now, that doesn't exclude how *good* (made up ****) the Republicans coordinate negative messages against the Democrats were. Master at deflecting and attacking. That's the primary difference IMO.

EDIT: so polling info on media coverage.... 1st few M of each (usually the "honeymoon period"), so not a complete or fair comparison

Spoiler

The 22% vs 2% is interesting but not unexpected... covid dominate the economy

The leadership/character/political skills - media was so much more focused on personal quality than on policies, at least early on during Trump admin

 

Democrats are absolutely HORRIBLE about getting a message out there
They almost seem ashamed of any accomplishment

Rocket River