Pretty pessimistic tone from MacT there. That’s the first real mention I have seen of Schreiber as a legitimate prospect. At 26 and with numbers boosted by Asheville I don’t see it. But he did get some time in CF in Corpus so maybe they liked what they saw there; if he was able to stick in CF he would become a lot more interesting. Even if that’s the case it’s hard to see much ceiling since he doesn’t walk and doesn’t have baserunning value.
I thought the Tamarez and Melendez facts were glowing even if Tags's prose was not. Tamarez was a low 90s fastball/changeup guy, but Tags says he's touching 98 (which usually means sitting mid 90s) and has a slider that eats up RHBs to complement his change which likely has reverse splits. Tags mentioned control issues, but Tags isn't a prospect guy and probably didn't notice that Tamarez nearly axed his walks in half towards the end of the year (last two starts were rough though). On Melendez, the height thing usually limits velocity except in short spurts which leads to a reliever. If he's sitting low to mid 90s starting, that is fine for a starter especially considering he probably has a low vertical approach angle (i.e., shorter guys tend to have lower release points) which would complement a rising fastball (see Javier). Considering he's an Astros pitching prospect, I think odds are good that his fastball rises well.
https://www.milb.com/news/houston-astros-system-still-bubbling-at-the-top Interesting tidbits and quotes. This stood out on Whitcomb: he and Yankees top prospect Anthony Volpe were the only 2 minor leaguers with 25+ 2B, 20+ HR, and 30 SB in 2021. Purim’s mentioning Whitcomb’s exit velo is noteworthy. With his physical attributes and slash line he could be terribly underrated, although his k rate is a yellow flag to me. Huge opportunity for him when he reaches AA next year. I think Matijevic is underrated.
Best I can tell, here is the final list of Astros prospects who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft: C: Papierski**, Shaver, Manea*, Salazar*, Diaz**, Holderbach, Rodriguez, Perry, Alvarez IF: De Goti, Wielansky, Valdez*, Nova, Hensley, Mendoza, Santana, Carrasco, Ramirez, Cueta, Urdaneta OF: Dawson*, Matijevic*, Costes, Julks, McKenna*, Adolph, Schreiber, W Abreu, Rodriguez P: Torres**, Blanco**, Hansen, Mushinski*, Donato, McKee, Scheetz, Hernandez, Lawson, France**, Conine, Macuare**, Daniels, Ruppenthal, Peck, Moclair, Conn, Record, Deason, Bravo, Serrano*, Freure*, Collado, DeJuneas, Benedetti, Cabral, Henderson, Rivera, Jimenez*, Taveras**, Garcia, Ceballos, Rodriguez, Bellozo, Ramirez, Bojorquez, Gonzalez Mostly worried about Diaz and Taveras. I understand the risk since neither guy has played above High A and neither has had a ton of pedigree before this season. But they both have very high ceilings.
Bermudez and Berryhill were the Astros chosen minor league players of the year but neither appear in MLB's top 30 prospects for the Astros. Bermudez looks pretty solid to reach the majors and I'm not sure about Berryhill. For those that know, do either have a shot a long MLB career? I just though their omission from the prospect list was strange.
I've heard Bermudez only throws two pitches, which hurts his chances at sticking as a starter. But there could be an opening for him as a reliever, and perhaps a move to the pen can increase his velocity. As far as Berryhill, he has a weak arm but is seen as at least decent in other aspects of catching. He's also been given reps at 1B. Supposedly the Astros changed his swing mechanics when acquiring him from the Reds, which he attributes to his breakout (from an interview I saw).
One upside to minor leaguers getting perpetually screwed is that since they are not in the MLBPA all prospects who are not currently on a 40 man roster are unaffected by the lockout. The minor league seasons are not at risk.
A conversation starter for those who are tired of hearing about the strike. Astros Prospects by Proximity to MLB ETA Prospect Position 2022 Jeremy Pena short stop 2022 Joe Perez 1st baseman 2022 Forrest Whitley starter 2022 Jonathon Sprinkle reliever 2022 Shawn Dubin reliever 2022 Joe Record reliever 2023 Korey Lee catcher 2023 Luke Berryhill catcher 2023 Colin Barber outfielder 2023 Pedro Leon versatile bench 2023 Yainer Diaz DH /bench bat 2023 Hunter Brown starter 2023 Jairo Solis starter 2023 Jon Bermudez* reliever 2024 Will Wagner 2nd baseman 2024 Justin Dirden right fielder 2024 JC Correa pinch hit/run 2024 Alex Santos II starter 2024 Elvis Garcia starter 2024 Misael Tamarez starter 2024 Jaime Melendez reliever 2024 Jimmy Endersby reliever 2025 Tyler Whitaker out fielder 2025 Zack Mathews starter 2025 Chase McDermott starter 2025 Spencer Arrighetti starter 2026 Gaby Nieves short stop 2026 Colt Gordon starter
I’ll play: 2022: Lee, Papierski, Pena, Matijevic, Norel, Bermudez, H Brown, Dubin, Whitley, Record 2023: Berryhill, Leon, Nova, Kessinger, Perez, Endersby, Macuare, Melendez, Torres, Rivers 2024: Whitcomb, McKenna, Y Diaz, Barber, T Brown, McDermott, Henley, Taveras 2025: Whitaker, C Gonzalez, Jimenez, Tamarez, Robaina, Santos II 2026+: Santander, Lorenzo My current “of the future” 26 man roster: C Lee 2022 1B Y Diaz 2024 2B Lorenzo 2026 SS Pena 2022 3B Perez 2023 RF Whitaker 2025 CF Leon 2023 LF Barber 2024 DH Matijevic 2022 UT Kessinger 2023 C Papierski 2022 IF Nova 2023 OF McKenna 2024 SP Whitley 2022, Dubin 2022, Santos 2025, Melendez 2023, H Brown 2022 RP Bermudez 2022, Macuare 2023, McDermott 2024, Torres 2023, Tamarez 2025, Taveras 2025, Robaina 2035, T Brown 2024
I could see him getting a cup of coffee with the Astros in a Taylor Jones role but more likely he will get an opportunity as a fringey DH/LF/1B with another team.
For next season, I see Pena, Leon, Lee, Paps, Norel as position players getting a shot, but Leon, Paps, and Norel have 40-man roster issues. Pitchers...tough to say who makes their debut besides for Brown, Bermudez, Dubin, and Whitley. Tamarez, Robaina, and Melendez are wild cards for me. They should be in AA next season, and once there, they could be called up at a moments notice or it could be 2024.
I like the list. I need to look over the farm rosters, but at a glance where are: Brewer, Barefoot, and Daniels? Do you think all 3 are outfield busts?
Mine: C) K. Lee / Papierski 1b) Joe Perez 2b) Lorenzo 3b) Nova Ss) Pena Lf) Barber Cf) Leon Rf) Whitaker Dh) Barefoot Bench: Brewer, Whitcomb, Kessinger 1sp) H. Brown 2sp) Whitley 3sp) Santos 4sp) Ivey 5sp) Solomon Cl) Dubin Su) Solis Bullpen: Torres, Melendez, Conine. Bermudez, T.Brown, McDermott. Now that's suspending the reality that trades will be made and new prodigies will be found in signings or draft.
High strikeout rate in the minors is the biggest red flag a prospect can have and all 3 of those guys strike out a lot. Given that all 3 were older/college prospects I don’t have a lot of hope they’ll improve in that area. But all 3 have very high ceilings so who knows. But I like those other guys better.
The biggest problem I have with this list ( and this exercise ) is that none of those guys have a scouting grade that projects them to he all Stars, most are projected to be below average or organizational depth. That's why the current young all star level players should take up some of those roster spots.
