Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

So the Astros are waiting the market out confirmed!

 

Hopefully this is not the barometer that Click is using.

Rationale makes sense, but coming from Heyman this looks like classic pro-agent narrative trying to drive prices. I think they’re certainly interested in Correa (at the right price), but I don’t see DET delving out several high-end contracts in lieu of not landing CC if that’s the case. They do have a seemingly bright future though, and will be an interesting team to watch.

 

My feelings are pretty simple. If McCormick, Pena, and Maldonado are 7-9 in the opening day lineup I won't be happy. That's too much risk for a team trying to win. I would say the same thing if you swap out Pena for Galvis or Iglesias to start the season.

Marte makes the most sense to me because he's a free agent and you just pay him. Upgrading Maldonado seems like a real challenge. Contreras is the obvious target but what's that going to cost? Would Urquidy and Castro get it done? That's a steep price for 1 year of a catcher and makes me cringe a little. The free agent list of catchers is hot garbage. Yan Gomes is probably the best available and isn't very exciting.

At this point I feel like it is Pena/low cost veteran or Correa at short. Not buying the Astros going after Semien, Baez, Seager, or Story. I've said it before...but the first thing I think of when I see Pena's name is him taking deGrom deep in spring training when nobody else could touch him in the lineup....

 

Detroit has an interesting young team, but they aren’t more talented than the White Sox even if they sign Correa. They also aren’t better than the Astros, Rays, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees. Seattle has just as much ascending talent, too. The money angle makes sense, but I don’t get why Correa wants to play in that market (worse than Houston), on a team that has stiff competition to consistently make the playoffs.

 

If Correa went to the Tigers then it'll be fun beating them in the playoffs (if they even make it).

 

Agreed. I just don’t see why he would be that attracted to them, other than the Hinch factor. I could see why a team like the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Angels or Giants would appeal to him. They are in huge media markets and should be able to annually compete with their resources.

 

Is this a serious post? WHY?

MONEY $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!!!

Why did Arod sign with the Rangers? Why did Cano sign with the Mariners?

Free agent priorities (most of the time):
1. MONEY
2. MONEY
3. MONEY
4. everything else

 

In my post prior to that one, I had already said the money angle concerning the Tigers made sense. Therefore, I didn’t mention it again in the one you quoted.

Correa and his family will be set for life no matter where he signs, so he would be wise to consider the entire package, not just sign with the team that offers the highest total contract value.

 

Depends on the gap between the contracts. 10-20 million.... sure on a 250 million dollar contract someone MIGHT say no I will go with the winner over the money. 50 plus million dollar difference..... take the money. Especially on your first massive contract.

 

The factor is this... is he ready to be THE GUY in a small market or is he ready to be a cog in a major market but expected to be overly productive or else?

I think being the highest paid player and a franchise #1 for a small market team is more forgiving if that player doesn't perform year in and out compared to going to a place like NY and facing scrutiny every time he has a slump. But perhaps the extra motivation may do him good. Only he knows.

However, if playing in a city where he can be himself, put up some decent #s and continue being able to show what he can do in the playoffs mean more to him then he would stay in Houston and negotiate in the $220-$250 mil range. I'm thinking he may feel like he wants the challenge now but will regret that decision later (ala Pujols)

 

It’s all about what Astros think Peña is?
Is he a solid potential SS of the future for next 7 years?
If not… offer Correa 7 years 240 million.
Trade Peña while he has elite value at a high sought after position.

 

It’s still extremely early in the offseason but so far the tea leaves say Correa isn’t going to get his $300M and might struggle to find $250M. If the Astros’ $160M/5yr offer includes annual opt-outs, then it may end up being something Correa should consider.

I will also say that if by chance Correa’s market doesn’t develop, I think Crane would be totally willing to say F it and go way over the tax for 1-2 years. So even if Houston does something like sign Marte, it may not completely preclude them from bringing Correa back (although of course it will make it less likely).

 

Correa is elite with his defense but you're hard pressed to find offensive stats worthy of one the biggest contracts in MLB history. What he's done in the postseason helps but recency bias, he was mostly a dud after game 1 versus Boston.

 

Correa and his family are already set for life before he signs.
He could cut the Astros are break and sign with them but it’s about the most he can get.

 

Jim Crane is set for life. He could cut Correa a break and sign him for what he wants, but it's about the least he can pay.

Why do people always expect players to take discounts to benefit billionaire owners?

 

He could cut them a break, indeed.

 

Bingo. This is exactly right.

 

This. It’s baffling how some fans accept the narrative owners can’t afford to hand out these 8-10 year contracts and build competitive teams, when these transcendent players significantly increase the owner’s gate revenue at a minimum and help them secure larger TV contracts (what Pujols did for the Angels and Arte Moreno).

Want to know why the Angels with Pujols; Phillies with Harper; Rangers with A-Rod; Mariners with Cano; Tigers with Cabrera, etc. have failed to have much success on the diamond? It’s because those organizations are poorly run or in Detroit’s case, they really didn’t have the budget to build properly around such a contract. The Angels made horrible signings (Hamilton and Wilson) and never appropriately addressed their pitching weakness. The Phillies have neglected their bullpen every season since Harper has been there. The Rangers had numerous holes around A-Rod that were never addressed. Same with Cano and the Mariners before Cano’s first PED suspension.

Right now, the Astros are one of the most well-run organizations in MLB.

 

Well part of the reason they are so well run is refusing to do the risky long term deals.

Right now Correa wants a bigger deal than Lindor and that is just too much risk given his history. I think other teams see that as well, and he might end up in the 7 year $250 million to 10 year $300 million range. Hopefully the Astros can field a competitive offer with an opt out after 3 years which would make him a free agent again when he's 30 if he choses.

Correa's numbers are replaceable, but there is no way anyone can replace his leadership. He's my favorite Astro, and would love for him to stay as Astros for life.

 

Anybody know of a stat that takes the salary/contract of a player then compares it against their WAR to determine true value?