Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

It’s gonna suck tremendously if we don’t get Correa back but I just hope Crane honors his word and spends money elsewhere for another SS and pitching.

 

It’s always been a long shot that Correa comes back. I suspect Click already has projected landing spots for the money he would have spent on Carlos.

 

I'm not sure I get why the Astros would be aggressive for Marte from a needs perspective. They need a SS. I was under the impression that Meyer's would be ready to play on a regular basis maybe by mid to late May. I think you can live with McCormick as your starting center fielder and Siri as your backup/platoon for a month or two. The Astros had Straw as their regular center fielder going into last year and McCormick / Siri is probably a little better.

He's obviously very good and because of his age won't command too long of a contract. Unless Meyer's injury is potentially keeping him out most of the season or the Astros are already in some trade talks to move an outfielder and don't think Meyers/McCormick are a long term solution at center, it seems like this isn't where they should be spending big.

 

If true, I sure hope deals with either Starling Marte or Chris Taylor and Kendall Graveman are in the cards. I don’t see them signing Baez, Semien or Seager and I don’t want Story on a multi-year deal. Kris Bryant isn’t an every day centerfielder, so I don’t see how he really fits unless a trade is coming.

 

Jeremy Pena is a better prospect than McCormick or Meyers were, and Aledmys Diaz is a better short-term option than Meyers or McCormick.

 

We don’t necessarily have to replace CC with a FA SS. 2 (Pena and Leon) of our top 5 prospects play SS and we have to eventually give them a chance. Use the money to get a bat or 2 to replace CC bat this year and Uncle Mike/Yuli the year after. Bryant is my choice. Marte on a short contract would be great too.

 

It’s debatable whether Houston needs a SS and whether they need a CF. There are a lot of smart people who view Jeremy Pena as an MLB Top 25 prospect right now, which would put his pedigree up with how George Springer and Kyle Tucker were viewed before they were called up. Add in that Aledmys Diaz has a long track record of being a league average bat who can play SS, and it’s easy for an optimist to say the Astros are set at that position even after losing Corre. Just the same, Pena hasn’t taken an MLB AB and before last year was viewed as a future defense-first utility guy at best, and Diaz has been off-injured, and neither should be expected to replace Correa’s production even under the most optimistic scenario. So there’s certainly an argument that Houston needs a SS.

Likewise with CF, if you view Meyers as a 3+ win player and McCormick (or Siri) as a more than capable fill-in while Meyers is hurt, then there doesn’t seem to be any need for Click to address the OF. However, if you look at Meyers/McCormick’s strikeout rates and projected OBP (that hover around .300), they look like fringey regulars at best. Combine that with the uncertainty that comes with the type of injury Meyers sustained, and it makes sense they’d be in the market for a CF.

I think Click (wisely) is just going where the market takes him. He’s likely fine with either Pena/Diaz or Meyers/McCormick in the 8 hole in the lineup on opening day and is just exploring all options to upgrade the 7 hole. The “good” FA SS appear to be prohibitively expensive, while the sole “good” FA CF looks like he might fit their financial needs better.

 

That makes sense. What are your thoughts on targeting an upgrade at Catcher instead? Probably as a platoon option and eventually take over for Machete?

 

I have high hopes for Jake Meyers, Jeremy Pena, and Pedro Leon. All have nice upsides albeit probably not MVP-vote-getting upside. With that said, we already have playoff headliner-type players with Altuve, Bregman, and Tucker... most teams don't even have ONE player of this caliber. Alvarez could possibly be in the same category, although he is more one-dimensional.

Additionally, there is value in preserving financial flexibility... to enable us to address future, unplanned needs as they arise. I also have some concerns about whether Correa's past is brighter than his future, given his injury history and the fact that SS could be considered a young man's position.

 

I just don’t see it happening. The Astros LOVE Maldonado for his defense and pitcher management, so it’s really hard to see them reducing his role. Combine that with the facts that Castro is a solid hitter and platoon match as a backup and they have Korey Lee on the way, and it’s hard to envision them making an impact trade for a catcher (which is the only option since there are no good free agent catchers). Mike Zunino and Willson Contreras are the only 2 realistic options (I don’t see the A’s shopping Murphy) and it looks like the Rays are keeping Zunino. Contreras’ price wouldn’t be too too high but it’s hard to see the Astros winning a bidding war for the only good catcher available.

 

On the Meyers part, Diaz is a better option because he's the healthy one which is odd to say. If it wasn't for Meyers' injury, CF would not be an issue short-term or long-term. Not to say that someone internally couldn't have beat him out long-term, but I would have doubted the Astros would look to bring in a CF in free agency as his replacement. As it is right now, it appears the Astros are operating as he might not come back as a starting caliber CF.

 

I agree completely. I sure hope they go after Bryant

 

Catcher would be stupid. We have two high level prospects. We need another power bat preferably in the outfield or another lock down reliever or an ace.

 

If the Astros replaced MM with Zunino, Dusty would bat Castro exclusively against LHPs and Zunino exclusively against RHPs.

 

My expectation for the remainder of the offseason:

Sign a free agent CF (one of Marte, Taylor, or Canha would be my guess)

Sign a 2nd tier RP (too many options, Melancon, McHugh, Graveman, others)

Sign a 3rd tier SS (Simmons, Iglesias, Villar, Leury Garcia, Galvis)

Sit back and watch the trade market to see if they can upgrade the pitching staff by packaging young upper level pitchers (Urquidy, Javier, Whitley, Dubin, Abreu, Solomon, Bielak, Ivey, Paredes, etc.) for elite SP or RP.

 

Labrum tears are tough injuries for baseball players. I consider both Meyers and Diaz to be starting caliber players when healthy.

While I’d like another hitter if Correa leaves, I actually feel retaining Graveman or signing another late-inning reliever should be the Astros biggest priority. Doing that sets the pitching staff up nicely for next season.

 

This, it is really a puzzle and an effort by the front office to keep their flexibility financially and prospect wise until they can make deals that they feel complete the puzzle with the Astros maximizing their talent and ability to win in the post season. The fact that the Astros have spoken to the Padres about Adam Frazier only strengthens my view that the Astros are trying to move McCormick. I don't get the interest in Frazier FWIW but I do know that they have had discussions.

 

Okay if Correa is gone replace him with Marte and Story.

Then I need one more rotation guy and Graveman to return.

 

No, the Astros were looking at outfielders (especially those that can play center) before Meyers was hurt and at the same time were (and still are) very high on Meyers. The Astros have wanted Marte since Springer left and they have looked hard at other outfielders as well like Frazier in SD.

Why? I can only speculate ..... my guess is that they either intend to move on from an existing corner outfielder (Brantley) either in the short or long term, or that they see excess value in outfield defense.