That seems super light for Bassitt. That also seems like you are assigning too much value to Urquidy. Maybe not though- what- you have 4 more years with Urquidy, at probably 20 million tops to pay him if you are the twins or Brewers and are giving up 1 year of Buxton or how many years of Hader?
Bassitt probably has $10-15M in surplus value. I think pretty highly of both Abreu and Dubin, and would put them in the $5-10M range each. It’s possible it would take another 2nd or 3rd tier prospect to get it done, maybe add Solomon.
Did you see the part where I was sending out Brantley and Odorizi? That does get you to 2 big contracts as long as the big contracts are 25 million or so, right? Really you are saying we have room for 1 big contract and I'm saying you can send Brantley and Odo out b/c they aren't necessary for this team even though they are fairly compensated on 1 year deals and sign another big contract. Whose up for arbitration and how big a raise are they getting? It's not many arb guys, Framber gets an extra what- 2 million? 2.5? we aren't talking huge money right?
You’re not getting Turner for less than what you’re paying Brantley. So that’s a wash and you’re still trying to add 2 big contracts on top of that in Marte and Bryant. Odorizzi isn’t making that much. I will be extremely surprised if the Astros traded Brantley.
I agree, I don't think they are trading Brantley. I strongly strongly strongly think they should, and I'm really tired of seeing him play against left handed pitchers as well as hit 2nd in the lineup which, by the book should be your best hitter, and if not best hitter than someone that doesn't clog the base paths for sure, but yeah- he's not actively hurting us or anything, he's just not healthy. In reality it's sub Turner for Brantley, Greinke for Bryant, and then Correa (12), JV (8) Odo (8) for Starling Marte and a couple arbitration raises. What am I missing? The money looks right to me- are we going to have a lot more than 3 or 4 million in arbitration raises? We will lose some with Graveman and Yimi coming off the books as well- that should free up another 2 or 3, right? If you want to move Diaz so that you can let Pena get his feet wet I certainly wouldn't let that stand in the way of adding a Brantley, Turner or Marte. And- he's one of the ones due the biggest raise. You could probably trade him for some positive value I'd think, but you could always just non-tender him and get out of that. Getting rid of Diaz alone gets you there- no? Along with, of course, Montero being non-tendered.
I'd actually be kind of very surprised if it doesn't happen on 3 years. If you are saying 4/85 is more likely I will shrug and say ok- I'd do that one for sure too. The guy had almost 5 war last year. His career average is 4.1 WAR per 162 games. He's been relatively durable. He's at the age where you'd expect at least 2 more really good years considering he is coming off a career year, there seems to be juice in the tank. There are like 5 or 6 teams that are tied to him by rumors. What am I missing? That's a guy that typically gets paid, right?
If I am Click I zero in on trading for another ace, the only semi-realistic options: Alcantara, Castillo, Marquez, and Bieber. The more I think about it the more I just don’t think the A’s pitchers move the needle enough over Urquidy/Odorizzi/Javier. Here’s what I think it’d take to get each of those guys: Bieber: Pena, Urquidy, Javier, Brown Alcantara: Pena, Urquidy, Nova, Siri Marquez: Pena, Urquidy, Brown, Dubin Castillo: Urquidy, Abreu, McCormick, Perez
Why out of curiosity? We are way more vulnerable in the lineup with kid SS, low tier CF, awful Catcher, no thump 1b and no thump LF. And Bregman is a huge question mark at the moment. There is way more downside risk of the lineup sucking than the rotation (absent major injuries). I literally trust 2 guys to be really really good at the plate- Yordon and Tucker. Then you have Altuve who is getting older and had a terrible 2020 but a bounce back 2021, Bregman who hasn't been particularly good since the juiced ball year of 2019 when he hit a lot of wall scrapers, and Yuli and Brantley who you know aren't going to drive the ball but will make good contact and hit around 300. That's not a recipe for a world series caliber lineup unless you get really good years out of Altuve and Bregman, which are certainly possible. Powder needs to be saved for bats over arms.
I totally disagree with every single thing you said. If you really think Tucker and Alvarez are Houston’s only reliable hitters then you should be advocating for a total rebuild.
Can get Bassitt as our SP3 for Chas + Abreu as I suggested. Kid SS - Trade Odo for Paul DeJong (sneaky high power, above average D). Boom! Got rid of Odo, and we have a good stopgap SS/ potential future depth piece. Some of your concerns have merit. However, I strongly disagree about Tucker and Alvarez being the only reliable hitters. That is just plain wrong. I do think we need more power to offset 1B and LF having little to no power, but that doesn’t make either of those guys crap, especially since said players finished 1st and 2nd in the AL in batting average.
Astros “aggressive” in pursuit of Marte, per Nightengale. Can’t put the link right now but he tweeted that a short while ago. TBH I’m not a fan. He’s getting a big contract, most likely, and he’s a 33-year old who primarily relies on speed, which will probably start winding down soon. Not much power, either. I think he’ll be the biggest overpay in this year’s FA class. We’ll see what happens though.
You’re onto something. I didn’t see the tweet earlier but going into FA, I didn’t see Astros willing to give him that kind of money even if we didn’t resign CC. With this many suitors for his service, I think he’ll probably get more than 3 years. Think 5Y/100M will get him signed? Don’t know if Astros want to offer him 5 years either.
5 years for someone who’s already 33? Do not want to pay a 36/37 year old $20M to be a primary speed guy. No thanks
Anything under $50M for Marte would be a steal. Anything under $70M is a good value. Anything over $90M carries risk. Anything over $110M is a bad deal.
I agreed. Let’s get Bryant and be done with the off-season FA signing. Used our trade chips to get another TOR SP and another bat. Like another poster said, we do need to get more power in the lineup outside of Tucker and Alvarez. A 2019 version of Breggy would be nice for next season.
