There are going to be a number of players that are not going to get the big payday that will be valuable, especially in the pitching market and infield. Possibly buy low starting pitchers include: James Paxton, Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb, Michael Pineda, Rich Hill, Yusi Kukuchi, Corey Kluber, Steven Matz, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez. These players all have had injury problems and/or inconsistent performance issues. The point being, if the Astros decide to trade from their rotation depth (which is what I have heard floated), then there are options that potentially could pay off. Some of these guys like Paxton, Kukuchi, Kluber and possibly Matz have top of the rotation potential. A few of these guys like Matz and Kukuchi may get solid pay days, but a lot of them are not. Personally I would sign Matz as I think he has the potential to be a #2 starter. Kluber, Kukuchi, Paxton and to a lesser extent Bundy all are very interesting because there is a chance one of them pitches like an ace next season. Pitching for the Astros has to be very attractive to pitchers because of their ability to improve performance, the Astros excellent defense and winning. Possibly buy low relief pitchers include: Mark Melancon, Andrew Chafin, Brad Hand, Archie Bradley, Trevor Rosenthal, Adam Ottavino, Daniel Hudson, Dave Robertson, Kirby Yates, Dellin Betances. Possibly buy low relief pitchers include:
If you give me $55M to spend and those players at those prices I’m probably going Marte and Rodon, with $17M to spend on a 3rd SS (Simmons, Villar, Garcia, or Iglesias) and RP (McHugh)
I am quickly getting totally on board with Houston signing Paxton if they miss on Verlander. They have the rotation depth to insure against him getting hurt as well as space him out to try to keep him healthy. He pitches like an ace (when he pitches).
Astros ownership and management recent history suggests they prefer to buy low and hope their coaching and analytics can raise the buy-low player possibly to all-star level. Analytics might still be there though departures of Luhnow and Hinch makes one wonder if they’re as cutting age as they once were. Then, on the pitching side, Strom’s departure creates doubt that we can depend on organization to raise FA candidates the way the organization once did with the likes of Morton, Cole, and our current crop of young pitchers. Point is past strategies may not prove as effective as they once proved so as a fan you may not want to count on such free agent strategies in your analyses of what you want the team to do not only with their own free agents, but with any other free agents they may bring in if Correa/Verlander leave
Rodon scares the **** out of me with his injury status. But on the other hand I wouldn't want to be the team that bought high on those Giants pitchers that outperformed their previous seasons either.
One area of potential innovation which I know Houston’s current front office is devoting significant resources is health. So it’s not just spin rate and pitch selection/location that the Astros are trying to gain an advantage in. It won’t surprise me if Houston signs an injury prone pitcher (or 2) in the hopes that they have a better strategy to keep the player healthy/effective.
Not really as hot on Marte as others. Bryant would adequately fill the offensive void that Correa leaves and Pena is a plus defender by all accounts. If he lives up to his projection offensively we would be better offensively than last year and still pretty good defensively, although Tucker is probably only adequate in CF. With Bryant we could move him to LF when Brantley is done. Insert one of our young center fielders and move Tucker back to right. Bryant also gives us a 3b if Bregman continues to suffer injuries. Rodon’s injury is concerning.
Has Pena ever been project as more than average offensively? I know he did pretty well for his 30 games in Sugarland but his numbers there were less than Jake Meyers. I don't see how Pena and Bryant being better offensively than Correa and Meyers/Chas. I don't see how there is an way a rookie Pena and Bryant in the outfield would be better on the defensive side. I'm not saying this isn't our best option, but I don't seeing it being better on the field than any option with Correa.
Pena is much younger than Meyers... more upside... I have no problem with Pena if the money is being spent somewhere else wisely... Both Martes interest me depending on cost.......
I assume you are referring to Starling and Ketel. Both would be nice but Ketel would be who I would prefer. That bat at the top of this lineup would be a beautiful thing.
I'm not saying he doesn't have upside. I'm just saying there is no way he and someone like Bryant will match the production of Correa and Meyers/Chas unless Bryant has a career year.
I like to have Bryant (5-6 years contract), Ray/Stroman (5-6 years) and Graveman (2-3 years) on a shorter contract for 55M to replace CC and JV if both don’t resign. I really want to see Pena and Leon to have an opportunity at SS.
Bryant said he wants to be a CF right? How good is he? If he's good enough, sign him to be the CF. If Bregman gets injured, Bryant would be insurance and McCormick/Meyers would be good enough to fill in CF until Bregman returns
Bryant is going to be 30 next year, Correa 27. Anything can happen, but the idea that Bryant (3.3 WAR in 2021) is going to massively improve in 2021 is unlikely. He's good, but Correa had 7.2 WAR last year. Not anywhere close to similar production. And his addition requires a downgrade at CF and RF defense, to go with the dropoff from Correa's defense at SS. The team wouldn't suck, but it's a poor fit and an overall decline. At least Marte would be an upgrade defensively at CF and wouldn't require Tucker switching positions.
My first choice is keeping Correa, but if he did bolt, I wouldn't mind getting Marte on a reasonable contract like 15-17 million a year. BTW, I don't know about him being an upgrade on defense. He has an average defensive rating for his career.
