Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

No FA SP is asking for a 10 year contract like Correa is. There’s a HUGE difference between giving Correa $280M/9yr vs a guy like Gausman or Ray $140M/5yr. And more difference between that and giving Verlander $42M/2yr. Yes Correa is more valuable than any other player on the market, but the question is how much more valuable and is it worth it, especially when Houston has an elite prospect waiting to take over at his position.

 

There is no way the Astros are signing Marte, Semien and an elite SP for less than $65-70M in total AAV. Marte gets $18-20M, and Semien and someone like Gausman or Ray are getting close to $25M a year or more. Semien had an MVP caliber season.

They could sign Marte and Semien and trade for someone like Luis Castillo for a comparable AAV to what they would pay Correa and Verlander.

 

I understand that, and, it doesn’t sway my opinion. How many pitchers need to have Tommy John Surgery or other shoulder/arm issues before we realize giving big-money, long-term contracts to starting pitchers is a poor investment? Signing Verlander to a 2 year, 42M would be something I would do if he rejects the QO. It’s a reasonable gamble in hopes Verlander can recapture his ace form after Tommy John Surgery.

I listed many names, and I didn’t even mention McCullers or Tyler Glasnow, who the Rays will be lucky to have pitch at all next year. Ray and Gausman also don’t have consistent track records of ace performance.

I’d much rather pay an elite position player for 7-8 years than sign any starting pitcher for $25-30M a season for 5 or 6 years. When a starting pitcher gets hurt, you often lose them for months, if not longer than a year. Position players don’t suffer those types of injuries with nearly the frequency.

I agree that the Astros will be fine in 2022 and moving forward because they have a smart front office and an owner that will spend to win, along with really talented players.

However, you are going to have a very difficult time convincing me that letting the best position player on the team who also is considered a team leader by many in the organization walk is something the Astros should do. And, by the time you get to year 7 or 8 of such a contract to Correa, Altuve and Bregman’s current deals have long expired, and Tucker and Alvarez are three or four years removed from free agency. The entire roster and payroll will look drastically different.

 

It’s all about value. If Correa signs with another team for some super-reasonable amount like $210M/7yrs, there will be a justified chorus of “wtf” from fans, ignorant and educated alike. But if he gets his $300M+, any smart baseball fan knows the odds of that deal working out in the teams favor are very very low.

Houston has somewhere between $40M and $80M available in 2022 payroll, depending on how the CBA shakes out and how much the Astros want to stay under the threshold. That’s a lot, but signing Correa would very likely eat up the majority of it if not almost all of it. I totally agree I’d rather give a big, long contract to Correa vs a pitcher from another team (especially the pitchers available in the current free agent class), but I don’t think that’s the choice Click/Crane are facing. They’re deciding between a potentially franchise-crippling contract for Correa vs spreading $300M over 3-5 players, which would likely include both position players and pitchers, and include free agents, trade targets, and extensions for existing players.

 

I do understand what you are saying. However, the Astros are going to spend similar money for the next four or five years by signing Ray to a deal with a 25-30M AAV or Gausman to a 25M AAV. Let’s say the Astros ultimately offer Correa 7 years. 245M or 8 years, 280M. The difference in AAV for the next four or five years is 5-10M, which is only enough to sign a reliever like Graveman, or if you are willing to spend a little above $40M in combined AAV, someone like Starling Marte or Chris Taylor. I’d much rather have Correa at that contract than Ray and Taylor or Marte for four or five years, 200-225M, combined. The net difference in total contract value is somewhere between 3 years, 45M (Michael Brantley), or 4 years, 80M (Starling Marte/Chris Taylor/one mid rotation starter or an elite closer) caliber of player.

It would also take really high AAV extension offers to convince Tucker or Alvarez to buy out one or two years of free agency, and the Astros have them at a fairly reasonable cost for the next four seasons.

 

I will be very surprised if the AAV difference between Correa and Ray/Gausman is $10M or less, and even more surprised if the difference in total contract value is less than $100M. But I also would rather have Ray/Marte for $220M/5yrs (plus $60M to spend on bullpen arms and/or extensions) than Correa for $280M/8yrs.

 

Earlier tonight you suggested a contract of 5 years, 140M for Robbie Ray, and a contract of 4 years, 100M has been floated for Gausman multiple times in this forum. I highly doubt Correa gets more than $35M in AAV. Ray’s AAV in your proposed contract is 28M, a 7M difference, and Gausman’s is 25M, or a $10M difference. I do agree with you the difference in total contract value will be more than $100M.

Anyway, I enjoyed and appreciate the discussion, but I think it’s time to agree to disagree and move on. We aren’t changing each other’s minds. At this point, we wait and see what the Astros do.

 

Where does this extra $60MM come from? Are you looking for bullpen help in 2027-2029? Because in 2022-2026, you're paying $44MM/yr for your guys vs $35MM/yr for Correa. Unless you think the organization would just spend $280MM over 5 years instead of 8 years, I'm not sure where the $60MM comes from.

 

Got em.

 

Open the letter, Hal.

 

Gausman is a one off. Nobody better be stupid enough to pay him 28 million per. He's going to likely revert to his mean, and that means money being flushed down the toilet.

Ray is a different story. First, he's a lefty. Secondly he has always been regarded as having the tools to do what he did this year and many will believe he can keep it up.

I still wouldn't pay Ray 28 million.

 

Yankees prefer to sign stopgap at shortstop over star free agent, sources say
https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/...0211117-x3aua6xhvjewvfwfnvsar6j7fm-story.html

Report: Correa wants to beat Lindor's $341M contract in free agency

 

Good luck, Carlos.

 

yep..so that leaves Rangers, Tigers, maybe Red Sox to battle it out and spend 341 million dollars over 10 years.

Yankees aren’t interested in long term SS deals with high end prospects on the way.

 

So I have skepticism on this.

Roberson has had a definite beef with the Astros and Correa because of the 2017 cheating scandal. Forget veiled anger and outrage, he still consistently calls them cheaters in articles and on social media posts.

The Daily News up here in NYC doesn't really have sterling reputation. Its considered kind of joke by locals.

"Sources have indicated" is like the most vague statement ever. It could just be GM's and front office people of other teams giving their impressions. If could be Correa's agent gauging the market. No names or anything close to concrete.

And every other news outlet is quoting his story as if it is concrete reporting.

Basically take this with 10,000 grains of salt before saying Correa is a lost cause.

 

It really continues to baffle me how people on the internet react or hang on these "insiders" reports... when the reality is, they're not that much more connected than any fan that follows the team closely.

Just look at the reports thrown around yesterday on Verlander. At one point the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, White Sox, Braves, and Tigers all had very strong interest and were very close to getting it done... and not one single of those tweets mentioned the Astros being a candidate still. Then when the QO acceptance/denial report went out at 4, they all tried to be first to tweet how he rejected the Astros offer, and tried to put forth the narrative of what that could mean.

Then 30 minutes later, he's an Astro again... with the only tweet leading up to that from a media member being the actual breaking announcement by his brother.

Then the other "insiders" start back-tracking off previous reports and try to rationalize it.

Its just a recycled practice that is becoming ever more transparent in this social media world. We all know the "sources" when one person just retweets another news outlet's speculation.

 

Agreed... although now the "misses" are saved forever and there are accounts now devoted to historical "bad takes", etc. Baseball does seem to be lacking their version of Woj or Schefter... true insiders that are connected to both front office and agents. Passan-Heyman-Nightengale-Morosi-Olney-Rosenthal are either getting lazy or are just simply not as connected as they once were, and its becoming more and more obvious when they completely whiff on some of their educated "predictions" based on "sources".

But I guess its still more entertaining than the old days of talk radio or having 3-5 minuted interview on baseball tonight or SC.

 

I am skeptical there is a 10 year, 341 million offer out there for Correa. If that is his sticking point, I don’t think he’s going to sign anywhere for a while.

I do think there will still probably be offers higher than where the Astros are willing to go (and the Yankees could still easily be one of them despite whatever an unnamed “source” says).