Amidst trade rumors, A's GM David Forst alludes to possible upcoming rebuild https://theathletic.com/news/amidst...es-to-possible-upcoming-rebuild/sD7D1fwe39HJ/ Who do we want...?
The A's are going to rebuild (although it is really re-tool as they don't usually take low level prospects). The A's have a number of good but not great players that would improve their team. The A's have 3 middle of the rotation starting pitchers that could help the Astros. I personally would target Frankie Montas in a trade if I were the Astros. He has two more years of control and has good stuff. There is a risk as he is a PED user and has been inconsistent, but he has a lot of upside and could give the Astros 200 innings. Bassitt and Manea are also good pitchers but are free agents after this season and don't have the raw stuff that Montas does. Sean Murphy could be a long term catching option for the Astros but he would likely be expensive to trade for because he is under control at little money for a number of years and he is a good glove with a developing offense. Still, if I were the Astros I would ask about him. Getting catcher locked up at little salary for 4 years is appealing. Matt Olson would be a really good get if the Astros were not locked into Gurriel for next year. Olson is an excellent first baseman with a lot of power under team control for two years. However, with Alvarez on the roster, I don't think the Astros can get enough at bats at DH for Gurriel and Alvarez to make sense getting Olson. Matt Chapman is an excellent fielding third baseman with a lot of pop, but Bregman isn't a realistic option at SS and Chapman also doesn't fit the Astros model of contact hitters. Chapman strikes out 200 times a year. Last is Ramon Laureano and he would fit the Astros from a skill set. He is a centerfielder with power and isn't a total black hole on offense. He likely would benefit from hitting in the Astros line up. However what is the price tag for a good fielding centerfielder with three years of control left? In theory the are a lot of potential trades with the A's and Astros that make sense knowing the A's want young players ready to play in the big league or still under arbitration control. So from the Astros perspective they may have interest in Montas, Laureano and some degree of interest in Murphy. The Astros could deal Garcia who has 5 years of team control, Jake Meyers (who has 6 years of team control) and Enoli Paredes for Laureano, Murphy , Montas and the salary of Elvis Andrus. The Astros give up a lot of team team control and upside in Garcia and Meyers, who fit the A's timeline. The A's get to take a flyer on Paredes who has good stuff. The A's also get rid of $7,500 in salary from Andrus. The A's give up 3 years of control with Laureano and lose 4 years of control with Murphy and 2 years with Montas. However those guys don't fit the A's timeline other than possibly Murphy. From the Astros perspective they get a good defensive centerfielder that hits for pop and plays hard. They add a middle of the rotation starter that gives them 200 innings and has more upside. They also solve their catcher situation at little financial cost. Murphy is an improvement offensively for the Astros and is a good fielder. Andrus is an insurance policy if Pena doesn't hit well. So the Astros upgrade over the next two seasons at CF and Catcher, get a push in the rotation and a reserve SS.... and they still have ample money to get a top of the rotation starter and pursue a star SS if their market collapses. *Verlander (if resigned) Valdez McCullers Montes Urquidy Altuve Laureano Bregman Alvarez Tucker Brantley Gurriel Murphy *Andrus (or someone like Story or Baez if the market collapses)
I don’t think that package would be enough to include Murphy. I think you would have to add another good prospect like Hunter Brown or Forrest Whitley (maybe even both). But I do like your resulting roster. That lineup is deep as hell especially if you replace Andrus with Pena and he hits. I just don’t think Houston is going to be willing to take Maldonado out of the starting catcher role.
The Astros may have to add more, I went back and forth on it. At the end of the day you raise a good point.... ultimately I think that we as Astros fans under value Garcia. He is 24 years old, under team control for 5 more seasons.... he jumped multiple levels in a very short period of time and still did very well, his era and FIP all are very good.... he showed he could pitch a lot of innings, and his K and H/9 were all very good.... and then his stuff is backs up the numbers.... he was sitting 96 mph with movement by the end of the season. So I think Garcia is the most valuable player in the larger market so that is why I didn't include someone like Brown. If I am Oakland I think ultimately I would do the deal getting Garcia and Meyer and maybe a couple of lesser pieces too.
Giving up Myers and especially Garcia in that package is too much in my opinion and don’t think we need a catcher. I like Laureono a lot though and think he would be a good get. Maybe Myers and one of our upper minor league pitchers like Brown?
Brown isn’t just an “upper minor leaguer,” he’s our top pitching prospect. Also, remember Laureano’s suspension also runs through early next season. I’d be open to a trade for him but not with Brown.
I wouldn’t include Brown either. And I’d be reluctant to include Whitley. Meyers and 2 of Abreu, Dubin, Solomon, or Paredes seems fair.
If I was a team potentially trading with the Astros, I'd want to see Meyers throwing before trading for him and a CBA that doesn't grant free agency based on age signed. On Olson, why did he stop playing in the OF? I always thought it was because he was a good at 1B while meh in the OF. He's a great bat. I would not have an issue with Gurriel backing up 1B, 2B, 3B, DH especially if Olson can still play a little RF. Even if Olson can't play RF, he's a good enough bat that I'd want him manning 1B for the next 2 years with Yuli keeping the Astros from having a big drop at the plate when someone besides the SS rests. Trade for Olson, Montas, and Andrus (to limit prospects Astros have to send out) would still leave enough money to add a CF provided Verlander rejects the QO. A's only deal short term club control and weaken the Astros long term. Dusty has his work cut out for him getting Gurriel PAs.
I think it’d be hard to do that trade without including Pena, which would mean opening the season with Andrus/Diaz at SS; not the end of the world but not ideal. I suppose it’s possible the A’s would be in love with Hunter Brown and Forrest Whitley enough to make a deal possible without Pena. Maybe Brown, Urquidy, Whitley, and Colin Barber for Olson, Montas, and Andrus? I think Houston could still afford Verlander and at least 1 decent RP in that scenario. Gurriel could probably handle LF (especially at home) in addition to 3B, 2B, DH, and 1B, so being the primary backup at 5 spots along with the primary pinch hitter probably gets him to 400+ PA, especially after factoring in likelihood of injuries at one of those spots. But even with Olson, not sure I fully embrace the idea of an everyday 7-8-9 of McCormick/Siri-Pena/Andrus/Diaz-Maldonado/Castro.
Maybe the thread should say 2022 rebuild, because all that is going to happen in 2021 is a tear down. The CBA is going to throw a wrench into any kind of predictability as to the outcome for the A's or what the Astros may gain from him. I just wish Antarctica had a team so Fiers could be traded there.
Antarctica? Don’t do the awesome scientists who go there for research dirty like that. The only place he belongs is in Hell.
Scratch Montas if they have to have Pena though the A's know value of depth. I'd guess with Astros taking Andrus salary, the A's could find something they want between Lee, Leon, Brown, Dubin, Melendez, Tamarez, Robiana, and Santos. On 7-9, Astros would still have enough money to add someone like Marte (may have to move a little salary). Even without Marte or another CF, McCormick, Pena, Diaz, and Castro are all above average options as 7-9 hitters. MM and Andrus (maybe Siri) are the only sub par 7-9 hitters. Astros think MM's defense is worth it. Andrus...hope he wouldn't play much, but he's a lot better than Robel. Gurriel getting Robel (non-SS PAs), Toro, and Jones's PAs would be a huge advantage. Circling back on if A's have to have Pena. I'd value Pena at around $55-60M in surplus value, though I expect his prospect ranking to match closer to $45M. Steamer projections and arbitration projections for Olson probably would line up with surplus value near $45M, but like Pena, I'd expect his surplus value to be in the $55-60M range. Straight up, I'd deal Pena for Olson as I think Olson is a very safe bet on being one of the top 30 hitters in the game for 2 years that overlap Astros best WS chances. Pena may end up being a better value overall, but without injury, Olson probably keeps the Astros offense the best in the game.
@Joe Joe Good analysis. The good thing about Olson in he’s a LHH, and our offense is very RHH-heavy. He’s both a power and contact guy, and has shown he can beat the shift. Had a >900 OPS, and an ISO of .269, which is quite nice. I really love what he does as a hitter. And the added bonus- if we land him we’d keep him away from the Yankees, who are rumored to be in pursuit of him (and I think he’d be a great fit for them).
If he can still play RF some, it would allow the Astros to be LHB heavy vs RHPs and RHB heavy vs LHPs by resting Brantley and/or Gurriel depending on the matchup or just have Tucker in CF. There just aren't many hitters that make good contact often with power that aren't already Astros.
While I agree with your analysis, if Houston wants to upgrade at 1B with an elite LHB then I would rather them just spend the money on Belt, Rizzo, or Schwarber than give up Pena for Olson.
Fiers was just under a one year contract this year and stole 3.5 million while saying he had an injury that no Dr's could find. I think he's done as an MLB pitcher.
Yeah I wouldn’t be trading Garcia . dude has high innings potential and looks like he’s still getting better . We just need to continue building him slowly . He’s shown that he can tone things up and down a notch already . He just needs to learn to pitch a bit more effectively without his best stuff . from Oakland I do like montas , but now that we have verlander I’m thinking we are nearly set on pitching .
