Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

For us to continue our run of success, we will need to continue to receive contributions from young, homegrown players. Contributions from young players has been what has fueled our run over the past 5 seasons... Correa, Bregman, Springer... then giving way to Alvarez, Tucker, Framber, etc... and now we need the next wave to emerge, which could likely be Jonathan Pena, Pedro Leon, and Jake Meyers in 2022... and then hopefully Hunter Brown, Forrest Whitley, Korey Lee beyond that.

 

Correa is never going to get there numerically. Bottom line, his legacy is in the world series. The Yankees. Or the Astros. He has to get there being famous for what he does, not what he did.

 

They had more and better starting pitching than the Stros had. That was the biggest difference in the two teams. The Stros were lucky CFM got hurt. Gotta fix the starting pitching with a FA and if they trade for another stud then even better. I would give up alot to get Bieber. I'm talking Leon/Framber/Whitley and more. Maybe even Lee or Brown but not both of them.

That's how good I think Bieber is.

 

They also traded away highly rated talent in the Brewers/D-Backs/Tigers deals for the Child Molester/JV/Greinke.

 

Eh, Jake Rogers is nothing special but I always felt Seth Beer would be a decent hitter in the league but we had Yuli. We may not have gotten back to the World Series in 2019 or 2021 without Greinke either. So who knows.

 

Rodgers/Cameron and the Perez were all highly rated prospects.

Agreed about Beer

I really liked Nottingham in addition to Hader.

 

I do wonder if that Milwaukee deal was
a) necessary to win in 2017 or
b) stopped us from winning 5 straight

 

FWIW, Hader was the losing pitcher in Milwaukee's elimination games in both 2019 and 2021.

 

No Carlos Gomez and no Mike Fiers seems like a win to me

 

And with Hader and Houser, probably no Osuna either...

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/gm-meetings-give-hints-on-trade-free-agent-markets

For love or money?

Carlos Correa is the consensus choice as this winter’s top free agent. If you believe the buzz at this year’s GM Meetings, the shortstop should have plenty of options.

The biggest question is whether any of them will check every box Correa is looking for.

“He’s going to get his money, there’s no question about that,” one AL executive said. “But where will it come from? And will he really want to play for the team willing to give him the most?”

The team that will be most aggressive in its pursuit of Correa, many believe, is the Tigers. They made great strides in 2021 and will try to take the next step toward contention in 2022.

Correa played for manager A.J. Hinch in Houston, giving Detroit one of the best recruiting tools in the Correa sweepstakes. But some wonder whether Correa wants to play for a Tigers club that might not truly be ready to contend for another year or two.

“We’re talking about a guy who has done nothing but win his whole career,” an NL executive said. “He wasn’t there when the Astros were bad. Will he want to sign with a team that might not be ready to win when he gets there?”

The Yankees are in the market for a shortstop, but the belief within the industry is that they prefer Corey Seager, whose left-handed bat would be a better fit than Correa in their lineup. That’s not to say the Yankees won’t consider Correa, having met with his agent this week.

Other big-market teams such as the Dodgers, Mets and White Sox don’t figure to be in the mix for Correa. The Angels are more focused on adding pitching than another big bat.

The Astros have offered Correa a five-year deal worth $160 million, but he’s seeking a contract more in line with the 10-year, $341 million deal Francisco Lindor signed with the Mets last season. Correa probably will find a team willing to meet his price, but it remains to be seen which team that is -- and whether it’s one Correa wants to join.

 

I don’t think gets the 340 million he may want. More like 10/300 at best.

 

Love, money and the b****es.

 

It’s looking like Seager ends up with the Yankees and that the Angels are going to focus all their money on pitching. The Mariners have openly committed to Crawford as their SS. Of course there will be dark horses (Phillies? Marlins? Twins? Cardinals?), but I think the obvious 3 choices Correa will have will be Detroit, Arlington, and Houston. Trying to be objective as possible, if I were Correa I would need AT LEAST a 20% premium to sign with the Tigers or Rangers over the Astros. It’s not just winning, which should be a major factor since the Tigers won’t be that good next season and the Rangers may not ever be good; winning affects a player’s marketability big time. But it’s also the familiarity Correa has with the Astros. Sure he knows Hinch in Detroit but he would be in a new city with all new teammates and new facilities, etc.

This may be a scenario where the cheating scandal actually works in the Astros favor. Correa knows fans in Houston will embrace him. Yankees media have been pretty vocal about not wanting them to sign Correa; I’m not sure how media/fanbases in Arlington or Detroit feel, but Correa can’t be sure a new city will embrace him in any way close to how Houston has.

All that is to say that if I’m Correa and I have offers on the table of $330M/10yr from the Rangers, $310M/9yr from Detroit, and $270M/8yrs from the Astros, I’m staying in Houston. I am not necessarily hoping Houston makes that offer, but if they do and the other offers are less than $350M, I think the smart play (both for his personal happiness and long term financial well-being) would be to stay in Houston. I think it would make more sense for Houston to guarantee Correa $270M if the deal was front loaded with an opt out; something like $135M over the first 3 years then $135M/5yrs after the opt out.

 

I generally agree with this, especially the idea of using an opt-out to entice Correa. I think the big problem is that, as Nook has mentioned, the organization has some philosophical issues to work through with getting past these dumb 5-year type offers. If they are stuck in that mindset, it's just not going to work.

 

I view this story, if accurate, as a big positive in terms of the Astros looking to keep Correa. Yankees, Mets, Dodgers are perhaps the ONLY teams that check all the boxes for Correa (high profile city, big media market, win-now, have money) and if all of them are out, then we might be golden here. Detroit and Miami are in rebuilds (although I like their prospects and young players), Rangers are a total rebuild, and Detroit is an unsafe stink hole. I like where we stand. Mets were my biggest fear.

Despite all the criticism from fans, I think the Astros front office is playing this very well. They are smart negotiators. This is good for us, as we don't want to overpay and crowd out future opportunities for player signings.

 

Premium Post

 

This all sounds plausible, but after the org leaked that $160M offer, I don’t think the FO is interested in putting themselves on the hook for even $250M.

I’m not sure why they are limiting their options like this. Maybe it’s simply a bright line rule from ownership regarding the maximum financial commitment they are willing to make to a single player. Maybe instead they really think Peña is a 3-5 WAR player and want to take full advantage of that windfall.

 

In the history of baseball, how many 10 year deals have worked out well? Zero? Look at the albatross that Albert Pujols became in Anaheim.

Don’t do it. I don’t care who the player is. And honestly, it’s not like Correa is even a top 10 player in the league. I want him back at a reasonable offer. If not, let some other team eat that contract.