Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

It's gotten much better in recent years. Not saying much but I was there when the city was bankrupt and it truly looked like a war zone and it's night and day compared to then.

But yeah it's Detroit...

 

Premium post?

 

Just a reminder. Correa has the power here. He's the best player in the league today. It's not what benefits both sides in this negotiation. He's should not give up 4 or 5 years of money, he should not give up his tax credit to the team, and he should not be loyal when the team has made two offers in their own interest, not his. This is his time. There are no concessions to be given on Correa's part because he gains nothing from it. Not even legacy. This is NY vs. Houston and as of right now, Houston will lose in every aspect of the deal, money, length, location, opportunities, marketing, legacy, and loyalty. The city is delusional at this point to think he didn't laugh at the offer. But even worse, it tips the scale to NY.

 

He’s not going to Yankees. They want the left handed bat of Seager with that short porch at yankee stadium.

 

I'd think the Yankees will be all over him.
Not only would it strengthen them but it would weaken us.

 

I doubt Correa is first choice. I would want Seager. He is an incredible fit at Yankee stadium with his left handed bat.

 

Angels are my dark horse team for Correa. I think the Yankees will focus on Seager. Correa’s main alternatives to the Astros will be Detroit and the Rangers. Fringe options are Miami and Philly. One thing working in Houston’s favor is that if Correa is intent on winning then the only truly contending team likely to pursue him other than Houston is the Yankees. The Dodgers, Padres, Braves, Mets, Blue Jays, Rays, and White Sox are very unlikely to seriously go after him.

 

Correa's "power" in negotiations is based on what other teams will pay him. If he has offers for 10 / 300M+ negotiations will look a lot different than 8 / 240M.

I expect he will take the deal that offers him the most value as he weighs short term vs. long term guarantees. He does not owe the Astros anything and won't take a discount, but he's also not going to ignore a competitive offer from the Astros and sign somewhere else just because he didn't like a first offer.

 

Is there any precedent for a longish term, big contract with a player opt out after year 1?

Thinking about this further, Correa finds himself coming off a career year, but the market is flooded with high quality SS and many of the “winning” teams don’t appear to be bidders.

Lets say Correa really wants a Lindor contract, the Astros say that 6/210 or 7/240 is the best we can do, but some less desirable team is offering 10/300 and Correa doesn’t really want to go there,

What if the Astros say, dude, just sign our deal, let’s include a player opt out after year 1 and year 2. Correa gets very strong AAV, has the ability to re test a market that isn’t flooded with SS and possibly find the combo of winning/compensation he wants. Astros get to extend this window with him for a year or two, and stay within their financial parameters and buy correas best years, albeit at a high AAV.

Granted, this makes it more difficult for the team to plan long term, but it’s not impossible.

 

https://theathletic.com/2943110/202...ty-at-shortstop-pitching-is-also-a-team-need/

 

I don’t know about one year, but Machado’s contract has an opt out after 4.

For Correa, I think a 6 / 210 with an opt out after 3 or 4 years would be something both parties could find interesting particularly if there aren’t 9/10 year offers out there.

 

That’s an easy sell for the Astros because it covers our prime window, but that 3-4 years takes Correa into health risk and decline years. He’s not getting another big contract if his elite SS play falls off with age. His bat isn’t strong enough to warrant big dollars as an average SS or a 3B.

The opt out would need to be 2 years at most and even then it’s risky for him.

 

Yep. If I’m Correa and I desperately want to stay in Houston a little longer, I tell Crane I want $230M/7yrs, with the contract heavily front loaded in years 1 and 2 ($40M each of those years) and opt outs after each of those years. That way he can re-enter free agency again before 30, and into a market that isn’t flooded with good SS and not have the CBA uncertainty. And the downside of making $150M/5yrs from ages 30-34 isn’t the end of the world.

 

Man... I never even considered Miami - but that makes *a lot* of sense. Think he doesn't want to play for Jeter?

One advantage I think the Astros have: Correa's been spoiled here. They have a terrific ownership group; they prioritize winning; they have an amazing culture and coaches/players he seems genuinely close to - I think he's acutely aware - and smart enough to realize - that environments like ours don't grow on trees. I think he also recognizes that the Astros changed his and his family's life; his brother is in the organization... that stuff matters. And that's why I think a very fair market deal in his ballpark will keep him in Houston.

Money runs the day - but he's walking away from *a lot* - imagine starting over and trying to build in Detroit what you had here. Not easy.

 

I think it will be very tough for Carlos to leave his bromance with Jose.

Also can't see the Astros offering more than what they've thrown out there. The current ownership has been incredibly smart with their moves. I just don't see them handcuffing future player movement on one guy...and I'm totally cool with that since they've (the organization) has also proven it can evaluate talent at a high level. If Carlos leaves, I'm sure we can find an adequate replacement at shortstop and use those financial resources to shore up other areas.

 

If Arte Moreno spends the money from Pujols’ contract being gone on another hitter, he is a moron. Provided Kershaw’s medicals check out, they should be the front runner for him. I would also expect them to put big offers in front of Scherzer and Ray.

Also, if Correa signs in Arlington, I hope he enjoys being on a terrible team for the next two years, likely more. The Rangers are a long way from competing, with or without him.

If I’m Correa and my options are the Astros, Rangers and Tigers, I’m staying in Houston.

 

Everyone keeps talking about what Correa wants. Something that pops in my head is maybe Crane doesn't want to have one of the guys that gets booed all the time on the road signed for 10 years. He has yet to sign any of them beyond the guaranteed deals Bregman and Altuve have that end after 3 more seasons. I know Crane wants to win, but as a businessman I'm sure long-term he wants to move as far away from the scandal as possible. Only way to do that is move on from those guys at some point. Maybe he can deal with it for 3 years, but not another decade.

I say that because I don't consider a 5 or 6 year deal being serious about wanting Correa back. They signed Altuve until age 34. You can't give Correa an 8 year offer that ends when he is 35?

 

Problem with Miami is they have never shown a willingness to consistently spend to keep a quality team together (it’s been that way under Jeter, too). They are constantly looking to trim payroll, and if I’m Carlos, why do I have any faith they will actually spend to put a quality product around me during the life of the contract.

 

But wouldn't giving Correa a 10/$360 be a pretty big sign the times are a'changin'?

 

It's an interesting thought - but would be a little short-sighted, I think. I don't believe the anger has legs beyond maybe a year or two. Plus, you still have Altuve and Bregman, and fans have demonstrated repeatedly that the booing is not necessarily player specific as they were boing players this year that were not here in 2017.

Time is the only way they're going to outrun it.

Altuve's situation is unique - he was grossly underpaid for YEARS. Correa has not been underpaid.