I have heard a lot of people believe that if they fail to get Correa, their immediate response will be to plug in another bat.... and it appears that the Astros intend to address the top of the rotation regardless of what happens with Correa.... it just may impact whether that is through free agency or trade.
Ace - JV #1 - Garcia #2 - McCullers, Valdez #4 - Urquidy, Javier #5 - Odorizzi Depth - Whitly, Solomon, Brown Is a pretty tough rotation to crack. If any additional starters come in I would expect them to have at least one option year available.
Agreed, but they are trying to move Odorizzi for anything........ and they are open to dealing one of their existing young starters under multiple years of team control for someone with two years of control.
@Nook Any specific names (FA and/or trade) the Astros are connected to in terms of starters that you’re aware of?
The Marlins needs seem to match up well with Houston. They need SS and OF help. Pena and Siri would be a great start in a package for Alcantara. I wouldn’t want Houston to give up a lot more than that. As good as Alcantara was last year, it was his first year as a real ToR SP and he only comes with 3 seasons of control.
That does seems like a good match. I would also want a low-level prospect back if I were the Astros giving up Peña. Hard to say which of the 3 rookie OF's would have more value to them- Chas, Jake or Siri. Siri probably has the biggest upside, but also the biggest downside.
Okay…so now I understand why Bregman couldn’t hit and his power went AWOL. I take back all the bad thoughts Alex. Be ready for spring training….https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...y-expected-ready-spring-training?platform=amp
We would get laughed at Garcia and Pena for Bieber... I'm skeptical we have the prospects .. i would think the price is higher than Berrios... I think we just disagree on values of players... no hard feelings...
Here's a fun nugget... Player A: BA: .249 OB%: .304 SLG%: .333 OPS: .637 5.9% of Astros Payroll Player B: BA: .203 OB%: .292 SLG%: .426 OPS: .717 Proposed: 10.2% of Astros Payroll Player B is Trevor Story at 20 million per season. Player A is Kaz Matsui.... Those are the road numbers in their final season in Colorado... Can we just stop with the idea of paying 20 million to Trevor Story unless that's what he's getting over 3 years? He's just not good enough to warrant the payroll with Pena or Diaz much cheaper options for similar or better production. If Pena hit .203 with a .717 OPS we would think failure for now but maybe he builds on it since he's a rookie... not a veteran who has been around 5-6 years....
I don't think you understand the Coors effect. The problem hitters have is the ball doesn't move as much in Coors. Then they go on the road and sliders are darting 3-4 more inches. It is very hard to bounce back and forth with that during the season. DJ LeMahieu's road numbers his final year in Colorado.... .229 AVG, .277 OBP, .698 OPS The following year as a Yankee he finished 2nd in the American Leauge in average.... Home and Road combined .327 AVG, .375 OBP, .893 OPS Road only .318 AVG, .359 OBP, .818 OPS
Its more than simply adjusting to the ball movement.. which has been mitigated in recent years due to improved ball storage. Its the fact that Coors has the biggest OF in all of baseball... whereby altitude doesn't help OFers cover all that ground any better than they would at sea level... and batting average will always be higher there on balls put into play. While DJ had a bad final season, his splits weren't always so egregious. Some guys aren't simply products of the Coors effect... but there are plenty that are.
So basically you're paying a guy premium dollars hoping that he can hit in a completely differently way than he's ever hit in his career. It seems like a weird investment to make. He's a good example of how to do it properly - he only got paid after he proved his success outside of Colorado. For every LeMahieu, there's people who just didn't translate.
I didn’t say the Astros would only offer Garcia and Jeremy Pena for Shane Bieber. What I wrote is Bieber is the only starting pitcher available via trade the Astros would offer both for. I agree with you it would cost more than just the two of them. They aren’t offering both for Castillo, Sonny Gray or the Marlins talented arms. The value makes no sense from the Astros’ perspective. I, too, have no hard feelings about this, and I think we have discussed it enough in this thread.
There were a few articles a while back on former Rockies a few years after the humidor was installed. If memory serves, well above 50% of the ones that play a decent number of ABs as a Rockie and a decent number as a former Rockie hit better on the road than their road stats as a Rockie. There was some selection bias as guys have to have some success to keep getting ABs, but using road stats solely to judge Rockies hitters is not likely an accurate representation of their ability. In other words, there are probably 2-3 LeMahieus for every former Rockie that didin't translate.
I'm not saying they should or shouldn't sign Story. I trust the Astros' front office to determine the financial value, and their analytics team to determine how much of a problem the home/road splits are going forward. The analytic nerds were smart enough to tell Click that Yuli's bat was still good, and that extension worked out quite well. It's clear Crane will spend some money this offseason. Hopefully they are able to get the best value for their dollars and prospects to improve the team as much as possible.
Yeah, DJ is a horrible example. It proves the opposite of how they are using his data. He hit .300+ on the road one year in Colorado. People knew he could hit... Arenado is also a poor example. He hit better at home but he was a solid hitter on the road, not flirting with Mendoza line... It's entirely possible I'm wrong but it seems like successful hitters after leaving Colorado hit some on the road there too...
Sure... I'm in the camp of using Pena and Diaz if it's not a top 3 shortstop... Semien at his age and spike in power scares me some... would rather give Correa 10 years then Semien 5.... I think Turner would be a great get as a leadoff hitter to drop Altuve's declining on base... if the bidding gets high enough perhaps Dodgers opt for keeping Seager instead?
