From what I've see through my own data gathering the reason why the #2 pick has busted so often is because GMs were trying to pick the "consolation prize" after the player that went first. Basically they went with the next player on the list in that positional group rather than looking for the next best player available, regardless of position. Like Milwaukee taking Jabari Parker at 2nd after Cleveland took the "next heir apparent" with Wiggins. Or Sacramento taking Bagley as he was the next best big behind Ayton who went number 1. Recent drafts have bucked this trend but the 80s, 90s and early 2000s are littered with examples of this.
I didn't leave him out on purpose because it's pretty easy to pull (as opposed to my list that required downloading data, filtering said data, averaging, etc.) but here you go: Jalen Green FG% 35%; 3PT% 28.6%; FT% 73.3%; RPG: 3.1; APG: 3; ToPG: 2.9; PPG; 13.6; Number of "minus games" (+/-): 8
Thanks for pointing this out. I stand corrected. Always thought it was just one of those weird sports anomalies
He wasn't a sure 2nd pick, Mobley was in the running. Yeah sure. I can live with this statement. Kobe was a 13th pick, Phil, Shaq and the Los Angeles Lakers had a lot to do with his development into a winner and not just a chucker. Houston does not offer that. Louis Williams was a 2nd Round, 45th pick, underrated and undersized. An overachiever for his draft position but not quite a star. Evaluating SGs is not my forte but I think more bigs have become busts, swing men have turned out better. FWIW.
I'd also add that 2nd picks are usually drafted for need/fit rather than taking a swing for the best player available. The infamous 1984 draft where Portland really need a center moreso than a guard because they had Drexler already that led to Bowie going 2nd. You got other success stories at #2 though: Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, Jason Kidd, Kevin Durant, etc.
Yeah I was a bit off. As @steddinotayto pointed out there was a rhyme and reason to it in decades past so I was corrected on that front. I'm no NBA scout but given the well noted struggles for rookie scoring guards I'm content with looking for flashes and development than raw numbers at this point
I just think the second guessing is coming from alot of ppl wanting Mobley and seeing his early success. I realize some of it is a natural reaction but let's not pretend like Green wasn't also considered by a great many as the number 2. It wasn't like we passed up on the consensus number 2 for JG. Also not to mention all the posts you've made about other rookie guards. Great stuff by you regardless, really enjoy your posts
The thing about assessing rookies based on their production so early into the season is that you don't really know if that performance is indicative of who they'll eventually become as an NBA player. I mean, look at Jahlil Okafor's rookie season: 17.5 ppg, 7 rpg, 1.2 bpg on 51% shooting. Like it looked pretty good there that he was going to be at least a borderline All-Star. Or on the other end of the spectrum, Julius Randle: played only 1 game his rookie season and only averaged 11.3 ppg, 10.2 rpg on 43% shooting from the floor his second season. Now dude is balling out in New York.
Hey, Cade might also be a bust. Who knows. I will wait till more games are played but I think generally the Top 5 is not doing that well. That was a surprise. All eyes on the prize. I think it is easier in the East, the West is a slaughterhouse.
I just hope it gives members a bit of perspective; that drafting a 19 year old guard is going to take some time before that choice will bear fruit. Just because other rookies are doing well now doesn't mean that Green won't get there eventually or that those rookies will continue their growth years from now. All unknowns lol
Yeah youre right its just so hard to tell. I've been looking at stuff like how much consistent separation he can get on shots and being able to get past defenders, etc. The patience on pick and rolls and passing have been better than I thought tbh. Now this is all assuming the shot evens out and the strength comes so there are def variables but to act like it's been and abject disaster is silly to me. The talent is clearly there to me at least. You are right though that anything can happen at this point
I'm not ready to write off any of these young guys regardless of how poorly Cade and Suggs have played. It's so early and anything can happen. I hate how so many ppl have turned this board into an I told you so **** show after 10 games. I just think it's short sighted and self gratifying.
One thing I was severely wrong about prior to the draft was the environment/team...like who the hell would refuse to go to Houston and would rather to go Cleveland? Like Cleveland has a history of ****ing up players' careers with the exception of maybe a handful. Maybe Mobley's dad was right if the rumors are true: his kid was better off going to Cleveland than to get drafted by Houston. Playing with guards who are both more efficient and better at setting the table in Sexton and Garland would serve Mobley's entry into the NBA a bit easier than playing with a guard that's trying to learn how to be a point guard on the fly in Porter. Maybe playing alongside a very good defensive center allows Mobley more breathing room as a rookie to NOT have to anchor the entire team's defense. I mean it's all hindsight at this point of course but maybe Mobley's dad saw all of this way back when.
It's not just one extreme or the other though. It's not either pretend he's the next coming of MJ or he's a complete bust. I think his poor performance indicates that expectations should be tempered, but it's always possible that he turns into a decent player one day. So don't give up on him entirely, but his fanbois need to take a step back and stop pretending he's already something he's not. Honestly he shouldn't be starting, he's currently the worst player getting non garbage time minutes on the worst team in the league.
That or he just took a look at who our owner is. Unlike Cavs, we have never had an owner willing to spend.
We are a tanking team. We might as well get the young players as much experience as they can get. Alot of what Jalen needs to be successful in the league, like more size and better handles, is just going to take time. In the mean time its good for him to see just how far he needs to improve to be even a good player. We selected him because based on his athleticism and the skills that he already has at such a young age, he projects into a possible All star level scoring player. People like you just love negativity and would likely not take a chance on many of the current All Stars in the league.
