If they asked for Meyers(Castellanos replacement?) and either Hunter Brown or Alex Santos, would you do it? Too high, too little? Is Castillo better than Berrios? Berrios got a haul.
Siri was just acquired this past off season as a flyer and Meyers was still a work in progress given the lack of a minor league season last year. Tucker was always going to be the Reddick replacement. Had they been able to work out something with Springer within 2019 (or right after), I'm sure Crane would have been good with a 5-6 year deal. Has to be mutual interest for those things to happen though... and George seemed hellbent on testing free agency after all the other shenanigans they'd gone through.
Payroll is 110 mil currently with Pressly vesting and Yuli being picked up. I doubt arbitration will be beyond 30 mil which would give them 60 mil shy of the 200 mil luxury tax
The problem with looking at fangraphs and other locations is they don't include certain realities. For instance, they only have Jake Odorizzi's AAV listed which is 8 million. However, Odorizzi has incentives that can make that salary up to 14.75 million. So the Astros have to maintain that extra 6.75 million under the tax if they aren't going over.
I would definitely do Meyers and Santos; I don’t think the Reds would go for that even if they thought highly of both prospects. Meyers and Brown would probably be a fair deal and might be more likely something the Reds would accept; they may require Houston to add in a young arm that can help their bullpen like Abreu or Paredes. Castillo is not as good as Berrios imho but he is a legit ToR SP. Rough estimation, he projects for 7-8 war over the next 2 seasons before free agency and will likely earn about $20M, so he has a lot of surplus value (ballpark $40M). If you like Meyers it’s easy to peg him for $20M+ in surplus value (if you think he’s a 2 win/year player over the next 6 seasons, it could be as high as $40M). Brown is a Top 100 prospect so his value is also very high. Santos is harder to value as he is farther away. Berrios got a Top 20 prospect and a prospect in the 50-100 range. For Houston that would translate to Pena and Brown, which I would not want them to do. But Brown and Meyers is still a lot of value to give up. The Reds aren’t far from competing in the Central so they may not want to trade Castillo. But if they did they could do worse than netting an everyday caliber CF (Meyers) and a potential ToR SP (Brown).
One thing that wouldn’t shock me is if Houston signs one of the elite SS whose market doesn’t materialize to a 1 year deal with a very low player option for a 2nd year. Player options count in the luxury tax calculation so for example if Trevor Story doesn’t find his $200M offer, Houston could offer him something like $34M/1yr with a $10M 2nd year player option, and he’d only count $22M against he 2022 luxury tax calculation. The Mets did something similar with Kevin Pillar last offseason.
From what I am hearing Verlander should be a higher percentage than that at likely the favorite and Correa is actually lower than that.
Keith Law was who Luhnow wanted as scouting director before my friend got the gig. I can tell you in person Law is a very nice guy and quite smart. He is opinionated though… but he did get a raw deal working for the Blue Jays.
What do y'all think was wrong with our offense during the World Series? Just a one time thing or something we should be worried about next season? For a team that was historically a great offense - being shut out in two games with one of the games being pitched by the other team's bull pen... I am slightly concerned. Not sure if the concerns are reasonable however.
Get rid of Bregman, keep Correa, bring in Kris Bryant...or do whatever it takes to sign Correa...Correa to me is what determines if the Astro's championship window is open or closed...not only because of the player he is, but also because of the leader he is.
