Sure.... easy to say for a fan. Ownership might think differently. Maybe Crane wants to maximize the new TV deal and bounce with 4-5 billion in his pocket. Astros make 70 million per year on the current deal on average. The comcast deal was going to pay them 80 million PLUS have 46% ownership. It was a huge punch in the nuts... and people wonder why Minute Maid is nothing but a giant billboard now. There are several ways to "optimize the window." that don't include signing a 350 million dollar shortstop for a decade. A a greedy fan... of course I want Correa back. Just don't see it happening. Speculation with a worthless guarantee. You in sales?
Lol… You’re a fan! Not an owner! Nor are you the teams accountant. also I’m well aware of the tv deal issue as has been brought up time/again when people claim this is the 4th largest city (it’s not in terms of media market… closer to 10th). The CSN fallout has been an issue since 2013. Crane has already been committed to paying high payroll/tax when the team is competitive knowing exactly where his media deal ranks. And Crane knows the value of keeping MMP full to optimize the teams current popular core… with their most popular player. As far as speculation goes… that’s exactly what you’re doing. You have no idea where the game’s or this teams finances will be 10 years from now. Hell, when they signed the current deal in 2013 nobody could predict this team would be this good for this long… and streaming platforms were barely scratching the surface. the media landscape is already vastly different and will change how teams deliver content in the future. That’s not speculation. But predicting what they will do this off season because of an unknown media situation 10 years from now is. the local tv deals are basically what new stadiums were to the nfl teams in the late 90’s. Owners have to diversify how a largely local game can stay relevant throughout 6 months of the year with 160+ games… thus why mlb mandated every team offer initial streaming as alternative options to current subscriptions, and why each year you will continue to see more games offered via the internet (till that becomes the main medium).
All I care about is a winning product on the field. The Nationals and Braves won the World Series without Carlos Correa. The Astros with Carlos Correa in his prime didn’t. Crane spends almost 200 million in payroll, that Along with solid draft choices and personnel decisions will keep us competitive for a Long time. Astros are going to be fine.
I think everybody here would like sustainability of the window. The Nationals actually had no window, and now they're done. The Braves do have a window but wouldn't surprise anybody if they finished in 3rd place next year. There is also the realization that they're not going to win forever. All runs come to an end somehow. The next 3 years are still prime opportunity, all things considered (state of the division opponents, state of the AL, etc.). The Rays/White Sox will still be plenty good as will the Blue Jays/Red Sox/Yankees.
Rank - Designated Market Area (DMA) - TV Homes - % of US 1 New York 6,824,120 6.377 2 Los Angeles 5,145,350 4.808 3 Chicago 3,256,400 3.043 4 Philadelphia 2,758,330 2.578 5 Dallas-Ft. Worth 2,563,320 2.395 6 San Francisco-Oak-San Jose 2,364,740 2.210 7 Washington, DC (Hagrstwn) 2,351,930 2.198 8 Houston 2,330,180 2.178 9 Boston (Manchester) 2,302,680 2.152 10 Atlanta 2,269,270 2.121 11 Phoenix (Prescott) 1,879,780 1.757 12 Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) 1,800,600 1.683 13 Seattle-Tacoma 1,764,680 1.649 14 Detroit 1,737,170 1.623 15 Minneapolis-St. Paul 1,697,370 1.586 16 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale 1,642,220 1.535 17 Denver 1,532,320 1.432 18 Orlando-Daytona Bch-Melbrn 1,492,640 1.395 19 Cleveland-Akron (Canton) 1,366,110 1.277 20 Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto 1,317,500 1.231
Atlanta leapfrogged Houston in the latest rankings. https://mediatracks.com/resources/nielsen-dma-rankings-2021/
What is considered working out? What if Correa is healthy and productive in 6 of the 10 years and the other 4 years, he's either injured or sucks but let's say Astros wins the World Series at least once and we'll add 1 MVP season. Is that considered working out? Or let's say he's healthy and productive in 8 of the 10 years. The 2 years is injured or sucks. Let's say no World Series and no MVP but he was still good. Would that be considered working out? What needs to happen to be considered working out? 1 other scenario. He's only healthy in 3 of the 10 years but Astros win 2 World Series in those 10 years. As a fan, I'll take the 2 World Series even if he ends up sucking or injured majority of the contract. But I guess for a Crane and the GM, not thrilled to be paying all that money to someone and not get their money's worth. They can argue we could have paid someone else less money but no guarantee that they would have won the World Series had they had someone else.
I do agree that the Astros need to get a better media rights deal when the current one expires, but 2032 is more than a decade away. That should have no bearing on whether you pay a 27-year-old elite, homegrown player for 2022 and beyond. This front office is also smart enough to figure out a way to mitigate some of the risk in years 9 and 10 in how they structure the contract (team options being the obvious choice, but you might be able to lower the AAV as Correa ages, too). Furthermore, the Astros have maintained a payroll between $150-$195M since 2018. Financially, they should be able to handle a declining Carlos Correa making $25-$30 million in 2030 and 2031 and still field a good team with their current revenue stream. They won 95 games and made the World Series despite having 33 million in payroll on the injured list all season in the form of Justin Verlander. Likewise, they made it to game 7 of the ALCS last year with Verlander giving them one start for $33M.
Especially when in 10 years that money will look like squat. The deals will only get bigger and bigger and bigger. Todays big deal is tomorrows bargain.
Tell that to the Angels and that Albert Pujols deal. Tell that to the Mets who are still paying Bobby Bonilla. Tell that to....the Astros who are still paying Jon Singleton.
Keeping or not keeping will be a business decision. At least on the stros side. Maybe Carlos has sentiment , but I think we Will still have to be close . the X factor will be the fans . Is there evidence or enough of a feeling on crane’s side that if we let Carlos go .. then fan support craters . Pay that man became a chant . However , my guess is that if we are good then support will remain . there is a bit of an emotional connection . #1 draft pick , hope in our farm system along with other young guys to come up . Tanking is a smart strategy , still it was hard to be a fan during those years . We were truly brutal. click says we will put our best foot forward . Let’s see
Pujols prime at 240 million would be a steal today. It too easy. And this is the worst you can come up with. Maton makes what Bobby Bonilla makes to put that in perspective. Not even a blip on the Mets radar.
Just for clarity, Pujols 10-year deal is vastly different than Correa. Correa is entering FA at 27. Pujols was “31” when LAA inked him, and I put that in quotes because it’s pretty well established that he was likely much older than that. I’m not saying 10 year deals are great, but it’s a bit apples and oranges when comparing Correa to other stars who have sought the deal. I still think Machado is the best example and we will see how his deal ages.
bonilla was totally different. He deferred money because he didn’t trust himself to save it. and if you’re gonna cite singleton, cite Altuve as the counter example as the early bet that paid handsomely. no question there is risk with Correa. But those examples aren’t it
i had the opposite reaction. The quote was preceded by words to the effect,… Carlos has an amount in mind. Add that in front of the quoted language and it makes me think we will offer something, but not nearly what correa wants. It is trying, but my guess is that it will be far from what correa wants or will get from someone. I wish they had quoted crane more fully. The audio is on clips on Twitter if you’d like to check it out…I know this is important to a lot of folks.
Could be amount/year. The Astros could offer more/year but less total years (and total $ amount) than what Correa wanted. but still not sure why both parties wouldn’t want to include opt outs. Correa’s supposed 10 year deal probably gets inflation diminished by year 3, especially if he’s still playing at a high level.
