I like your out of the box thinking with Rendon but what makes him a better option than paying Correa, who's younger, is a better defender at his position and is comparable (at this stage in both of their careers) offensively? You trade for Rendon and now you still have a hole to fill at SS unless we're moving more pieces around the field?
Yes offers can be made but it is extremely unlikely any major free agents sign before the CBA is resolved.
He apparently went hard after Treinen and Hendricks and was hoping both would want to reunite but obviously he struck out. He then settled for Baez and Stanek. Odorizzi wasn't really a off season signing since he was signed as an emergency when Valdez got hurt in Spring training. On a side not, are players like Abreu and Paredes a lost cause or can they get back to who they were? Is Solomon the real deal? Is he one of their bullpen addition?
It's not my money but it appears the Astros won't go more than 6 years so unless Correa changes his mind, he's not an option...
I can buy Bregman not being a true talent 150+ wRC+ hitter. That may have just been some batted ball luck those two seasons, but I still think he's 130+ wRC+ hitter when healthy. I'm not sure why his BB% has collapsed so significantly since 2018/2019 as he still is great at swinging at streaks and spitting on pitches out of the zone.
Yuck. That's $26MM/yr for a pitcher who's likely worse than any of our 6 current starters? Marte is certainly an upgrade over Meyers, but $21MM worth of upgrade? If you're willing to spend $215MM over 4.5 years, just keep Correa and the team would be way better off.
If Dusty is back, doubt Odorizzi will be back. There doesn't seem to be a lot of love there. The non-use of Odorizzi in the playoffs was baffling in light of the injury to Greinke, Luis being about 50% of what he was early in the season, and the loss of McCullers. Was shocked he wasn't used in early relief of Game 5 (instead of Urquidy, who could have then pitched Game 6) or Game 6.
If you want to sign a pitcher off an injury and pray for a rebound, sign Syndergaard. We take on Redon's contract for Mike Trout.
I agree that made no sense and how Odo was handled in general this year was pretty insulting. He took time coming back from injury but by September he was one of our best pitchers and continued to perform in the playoffs outside of one partial inning where he shouldn't have been put on the mound to begin with.
The Astros have a ton of options to fill their needs. Value will be the determining factor of where the Astros spend money and where they might enter the trade market. For the purposes of this post I am assuming Correa is gone because the odds heavily favor one of the 29 other teams meeting his needs over the Astros. If Correa does come back then the offseason will be pretty simple after that with maybe a bullpen signing and a trade for a starter. I would like the team to get more athletic. Brantley, Gurriel, Alvarez, Maldy, and Bregman with his leg problems aren't the most athletic group. Altuve has his moments but he's not the same guy that was stealing 30-50 bags a year. First I will address SS. I expect the Astros to go with Pena and likely bring in a veteran to be a backup plan or fill the spot until Pena is ready. Maybe they bring in someone like Jose Iglesias for that role if they aren't comfortable with Diaz at SS on a more regular basis. IF the Astros do bring in one of the big free agents at SS I think it will be how Nook mentioned. They won't be the first team to set the market and will only strike if the value is there. Only so many teams can hand out a big contract. Correa and Seager will get the biggest deals. Semien won't get the contract length like Correa and Seager but will also have a hot market because of how well he played this season. Semien also showed as he gets older he can slide to 2B with ease. If the Astros do sign a big free agent SS the guy I would want the Astros to target would be Trevor Story. He had a down year which might present the value the Astros want, and his peak seasons have been really good with multiple 900 plus OPS seasons and 35-37 HRs. He's also the most athletic of the group. He's capable of being a 30-30 guy. He has stolen 20 plus bases in each of the last 3 full seasons and put up 15 stolen bases in the 60 game season in 2020. Story or maybe Baez are probably the best defenders of the group outside of Correa. The concern would be his home/road splits. His OPS is 200 points higher in Coors Field. However, I think he could take advantage of the Crawford Boxes on a regular basis and he has monster power including a 500 plus ft HR which is pretty rare in the statcast era. If the price tag goes beyond 6-7 years at 23-27 million per season I would expect the Astros to pass and go with Pena. Next I will look at the outfield. Tucker is a lock for one of the corner spots. I think the idea of moving Brantley is a real possibility. I thought it was something the Astros might have done before when he had one year left on his deal heading into 2020. Brantley is obviously an amazing contact hitter and well liked in the clubhouse. However his power numbers have dropped each year since 2019 when he was first an Astros. His OPS this year fell to .799 this season. It was .875 his first year in Houston and .840 in 2020. He hit 22 HRs in 2019 and only 13 HRs combined in 2020 and 2021. In 2019 he hit 40 doubles and only 29 this season, Of course, injuries and rest led to Michael only playing 121 games in 2021. His body just continues to breakdown and I am done with the Alvarez in LF experiment. He should be the primary DH. More than 5-10 starts in the outfield is too much. He missed the cutoff man a couple times in the World Series and is a liability in the outfield. Brantley and Alvarez on the same roster is a little tough. They both should primarily be at the DH spot. I could see several scenarios playing out in the outfield. Maybe the Astros target Starling Marte for 3-4 years around 18-20 million per depending on what they do at SS or if they move some salary. Brantley, Marte, and Tucker would be a nice outfield with Meyers as the 4th outfielder. Marte can replace a lot of the offense lost by Correa leaving. In 2023 Marte could slide to LF and Meyers/Leon could be in CF. If the Astros trade Brantley then Marte in LF, Meyers in CF, and Tucker in RF would be really good and very athletic outfield to start the season in 2022. Another possibility could be bringing in Kris Bryant. He could replace Brantley in LF next season and then slide to 1B to be the long term replacement for Yuli with maybe Leon moving into LF. Bryant's ability to play all 3 outfield positions and the corner infield spots is intriguing and provides a lot of flexibility when injuries happen. I see Bryant as fairly unlikely because he will have multiple teams after him and the value won't be there. Pluse he will be looking for a 6-7 year deal. Astros would probably be more willing to give a 3-4 year deal to Marte that will end before or right when Tucker, Alvarez, Framber, Javier, Urquidy, and Luis Garcia will be approaching free agency. In my opinion the Astros have to add a top of the rotation arm. Of the free agents I would say Verlander makes a lot of sense because of history here and it would be a shorter deal. If I had to pick someone else I would look at Gausman, Stroman, and Syndergaard. Gausman and Stroman will cost 110 million plus over 5-6 years which makes it unlikely in my opinion. Syndergaard would be a risk after his setbacks on his TJ surgery but he did make it back and was throwing pretty hard. His ceiling is very very high though. Not sure how you could get him. Mets will give him a qualifying offer. Would 1 year 25 million be a gamble worth taking? I doubt he wants to sign a long term deal coming off the injury. A good season next year will net him a mega contract. Again, it will depend on where the VALUE ends up in the market. Could be a SS, outfielder, or starter. Brantley and/or Odorizzi being moved could free up some extra cash though. Syndergaard might have the highest ceiling of all the free agent starters. If the Astros decide to check out the trade market for starters I would see what Miami wants for Alcantara. The Marlins are trying to extend him but hopefully it doesn't happen. It would be a VERY expensive trade, but a package around Hunter Brown, and one of Pena/Leon might be the starting point. Could also involve Javier or Luis Garcia. I doubt the A's would trade with us, but getting Chris Bassitt would be a solid addition. I'd rather get a guy like Alcantara though who has elite stuff and velocity. German Marquez gets brought up here a lot. Rockies have been adamant they aren't moving him. The fact that they spent 50 million on Senzatela and extended Cron doesn't make me believe they are tearing it down and willing to move Marquez at least during the offseason. They should be sellers considering the division they are in but their ownership seems to be delusional. Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo don't interest me that much. I don't view Gray as an improvement over what we already have. Luis Castillo has been an innings eater, but his career numbers certainly aren't all that sexy with a 3.79 career ERA and his FIP is right in line with those numbers at 3.76 for his career. Castillo also walked 75 batters this season. That's like Framber Valdez bad when it comes to walks and I don't want another guy like that. I've stated several times I like the idea of adding Contreras. I doubt it happens because the Astros really like Maldy handling the staff, but it would be such a massive improvement on the offensive side. It also allows you to move Castro and get maybe a bullpen arm or some prospects back. Like I said... the key will be VALUE. How much will the Cubs want for 1 year of Contreras because he's not likely to stay here longterm. Especially with Corey Lee and Yainer Diaz in the minors. As far as the bullpen I think the Astros need to land at least one of the elite relievers via free agency. Graveman and Iglesias lead the free agent class and getting one would seem like a must have especially with Pressly being a free agent after next year. I would like to see the Astros bring back Graveman really early in the offseason. Get that done now. It shouldn't have an effect one way or another with the pending CBA. Trading for Hader is an interesting idea but that would cost a ton of prospects and he will be making a big salary. I'd rather just pay Graveman or Iglesias. Hader doesn't seem like the value play which is how I see Click playing the market considering the roster flexibility we have. There could also be a trade for a solid reliever but trying to pick out who it might be would be a daunting task with near 0% in accuracy. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Astros brought back Raley. I could come up with dozens of different lineups/roster but you get the idea below....(obviously lineups and rotation order would change depending on who they acquire and who they might use in a trade) Altuve 2B Brantley/Marte/Bryant LF Bregman 3B Alvarez DH Yuli 1B Tucker RF Meyers/Marte CF Contreras/Maldy C Pena/Story SS Bench: Maldy/Castro, Meyers/Mccormick/Siri, Diaz/Iglesias, Jones/Marwin? Rotation: McCullers Verlander/Alcantara/Syndergaard/Stroman/Gausman/Bassitt Valdez Garcia Urquidy/Odorizzi/Javier/Brown/Solomon/Whitley/France/Tamarez Bullpen: Pressly Graveman/Iglesias Stanek Maton Taylor Baez (maybe used to offset salary at the deadline like Joe Smith) Javier/Urquidy Abreu/James/Scrubb/Dubin/Paredes/Bielak/Emanuel/someone acquired via trade? Astros have lots of options to fill out the roster. Really going to be the 1st chance for Click to have the ability to shape the roster the way he wants. Should be a fun offseason with more moves than the last couple offseasons.
One thing that appeals to me is free agents who have been productive on crummy teams. That’s why Trevor Story and Starling Marte seem like potentially underrated stars. Neither of those guys has ever hit in a lineup as deep/good as Houston’s and never been on a team with as much success as the Astros. So there’s potential for them to level up once they are hitting in front of and behind other great hitters and once they are helped to prepare the way the Astros coaches and FO help develop hitters. Jonathan Villar is another (lesser) guy that fits that description.
I expect Josh James to be non tendered unless his first year arbitration number is basically a pre-arbitration number (650-750K). He needs a fresh start somewhere else.
I will be very surprised if his salary comes in above $800k. If I were a mediocre/rebuilding team I would try to trade for him. He is out of options so I do think it’s unlikely he stays with the Astros but I still think he has value.
