NBA Game Action : 11/2/2021

plutoblue11 · Nov 2, 2021

rfrocket said: ↑

Wow! Cade now 2-12 (0-7 3p) 4 points 3assists 2 turnovers.
Probably out after 24 minutes (restriction).
Don't even feel like bagging on him anymore (at least tonight).
Poor guy's probably really feeling that #1 overall (playing bad) pressure.
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I feel like he still has the tools to be a pretty good NBA player, but it's going to come with some growing pains.

Reeko · Nov 2, 2021

rfrocket said: ↑

I seem to remember some wanting to trade Harden straight up for him.
Maybe it's just me though.
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I was in favor of trading Harden for Herro before trading Harden for Ben Simmons

plutoblue11 · Nov 2, 2021

The East has been a wrecking ball, this year. Heat, Bulls, Wizards, Sixers, Raptors, Knicks, and the Hornets have all been killing it.

Easy · Nov 2, 2021

The Cade Cunningham experiment is over.

i3artow i3aller · Nov 2, 2021

i3artow i3aller · Nov 3, 2021

Reeko said: ↑

I was in favor of trading Harden for Herro before trading Harden for Ben Simmons
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JayGoogle · Nov 3, 2021

rfrocket said: ↑

Wow! Cade now 2-12 (0-7 3p) 4 points 3assists 2 turnovers.
Probably out after 24 minutes (restriction).
Don't even feel like bagging on him anymore (at least tonight).
Poor guy's probably really feeling that #1 overall (playing bad) pressure.
Click to expand...

Just like every other Rookie giong to be an up and down year for him.

I never felt like he was a generational prospect and my hype for him died down once we learned he wasn't even 6'8 or whatever it was. Dude is the size of an average PG. Has some good defensive instincts (from what I've seen) good court vision, shooting should be there once he gets more comfy playing in the NBA...but I don't see an elite MVP level guy in his skillset/frame. I see a really good starting PG for a long long time who might make a few All-star games

J.R. · Nov 3, 2021

NBA offense is way down. What are the reasons — no, it’s not the ball — and how many are here to stay?

At the conclusion of Monday night’s slate of games, we were two weeks into the new season, having played just under a twelfth of the schedule with 102 of the 1,230 scheduled contests completed. While it is way too early to make firm pronouncements about teams and especially individual players, we have enough of a sample to start examining some leaguewide trends. Or really just one — the stark drop in scoring.

To quickly summarize:

Offensive Rating is around 5.5 points lower than it was last season, and the 106.8 points/100 possessions would be the lowest mark since 2015-16.

The NBA as a whole is shooting 34.2 percent on 3s, down a full 2.5 percentage points from last year’s all-time record and the lowest since the lockout-corrupted 1998-99 season.

The 13.3 percent turnover rate is up nearly a full point from a year ago and would be the highest since 2014-15.

Despite the league playing at a pace of just under 100 possessions/48 — prior to 2018-19, the last time the leaguewide pace had been higher than 98 was in 1989-90 — teams are averaging fewer than 20 free throw attempts per game for the first time ever. The ratio of FTA to FGA (.169) would break the all-time mark set in 1946-47 (.171).

The theories about why this is happening have flown thick and fast. It’s the new officiating points of emphasis around contact. It’s the new ball. Players are tired after the second straight compressed offseason. Fans are back in buildings.

If you ask me, it’s a little bit of the first and last, but mostly none of the above; this is somewhat how early seasons go.

Slow offensive starts to the season are the norm, occurring literally every season since the inception of the modern era in around 2003:

The first two weeks produce offensive efficiencies somewhere between two and four points lower than the full-season average. If history is any guide, offense will end up slightly down, year-on-year, but we’re likely to end up in the 109 points/100 range.

For example, the league shooting just over 34 percent from 3 after about two weeks is… perfectly normal!

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Though the early-season shooting is on-trend, there are still some aspects worth discussing further. One of the things which made the 2020-21 environment so high-scoring was the accuracy achieved on open 3s throughout the league. Across the eight seasons for which we have full tracking data, 2020-21 was the second time, and the first since 2013-14, when the aggregate 3FG% on uncontested 3s exceeded 39 percent. In fact, for much of the season, that figure was around 39.5 percent before dropping over the final six to eight weeks, coinciding with some arenas allowing greater fan capacities.

So far this season, that figure is down to around 37.3 percent. However, it is not merely the open 3s that have stopped falling. The 31.5 percent accuracy on contested 3s would be by far the lowest mark on record, and what’s interesting here is the decline is not evenly distributed. The 77 players who took the highest volume of contested 3s accounted for roughly half of all attempts leaguewide. Those players have seen almost twice as large a decline in contested accuracy (36.6 percent down to 32.9 percent) as has the remainder of the league (32.3 percent down to 30.4 percent). The list of players who are shooting more than 10 percentage points worse on contested attempts in the early going includes a who’s who of high-volume chuckers, with Michael Porter Jr., Damian Lillard, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, Trae Young and Devin Booker all finding themselves in this category. Still, we’re talking about small samples here. Lillard’s 54 contested attempts are the highest among that group, so any one of them is essentially one 4-for-5 night from being right back on track.

Meanwhile, the high turnover rate to start the year is equally in line with historical precendents, as is the poor shooting leaguewide. This is an area where some have pointed to the new ball, as the league switched manufacturers prior to the season. In watching games, I have noted a seemingly high frequency of players fumbling or struggling to catch the ball on passes or rebounds, but this could just as easily be the so-called Baader-Meinhoff effect, where because one is on the lookout for situations where the rock seems unusually slippery, instances abound. Were our observations picking up on something real, it might be discernible by referencing turnover types. If the ball was the issue, the additional turnovers might skew more towards a higher rate of “lost-ball turnovers” as recorded in play-by-play as opposed to “bad-pass turnovers.” Those two are, by some margin, the most common forms of turnovers counted. However, the increase in turnovers is split more or less equally between the two, so on first pass, it would appear to be more a matter of normal early-season offensive sloppiness and lack of rhythm than an equipment malfunction.

In fact, of the stats noted above, only the low free throw attempt rate is aberrational in terms of “normal” early-season play. Shooting, especially from deep, and offenisve ratings climb over the season while turnovers drop. But at the same time, free throw rates have tended to start out quite high before settling into a given range for the remainder of the season, then falling off again during the pre-playoff “silly season” that has come to characterize the last few weeks of the schedule. The chart below illustrates these historical trends:

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For each of the previous eight seasons, shooting fouls were called on between 1.3 and 1.8 percent of 3-point releases, according to data from PBPStats.com. There was nothing particularly egregious about this number in 2020-21, sitting just above 1.4 percent. This might be in part to the rule interpretations deeming much of the contact drawn on “swing through” shot motions to have occurred on the floor, as around 1.7 percent of threes drew fouls the prior year. Regardless, the variation was across a very narrow range. This year? Shooting fouls have been awarded on a microscopic 0.8 percent of 3s. Though foul calls on two-point attempts are only down slightly, the result has been a dip from around 10 percent to around 8.8 percent of all shooting attempts drawing fouls.
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YOLO · Nov 3, 2021

rfrocket said: ↑

I seem to remember some wanting to trade Harden straight up for him.
Maybe it's just me though.
Click to expand...

nobody ever said it was a a straight up trade harden for herro. There's been long threads that I too was involved in talking bout the miami package being much more preferred centered around a 20 year old herro

YOLO said: ↑

not only do you get a top 5 draft talent at 20 whose already excelled in year 1, added young fill ins, draft picks, and you clear a 3 year supermax off your books. Looks absolutely great to me for a rebuilding team. A lot of people in here need to look at the question a bit more closely. It says package, while most of ya'll are talking as if it's a 1 for 1 trade. It isn't

"If both players are available (in a package) which would you choose?"

This gears towards what pg13 was traded for SGA, Gallo, picks. Rather than what Kawhi essentially was traded for when they swapped for Derozan

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J.R. · Nov 3, 2021

i3artow i3aller · Nov 3, 2021

Easy · Nov 3, 2021

i3artow i3aller said: ↑

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Too many midrange shots. Inefficient idiot.

i3artow i3aller · Nov 3, 2021

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NBA Game Action : 11/2/2021

Who Wins Tonight?

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