No way. Not after the season he’s had. He is easily comparable to guys who have gotten $300M+ in terms of age and talent level. If $200M/7yr was in range for Correa it would already be done. I could see Correa taking less to stay in Houston, but not $100M+ less. If Houston could go to something like $280M/8yrs they’d probably have a chance but I just don’t see them doing that. The CBA negotiations will have an impact and who knows how ugly it could get, but the end result is extremely unlikely to push Correa to sign for a shorter term or that much less money. Machado, Tatis, and Lindor are his comps and some team with money will agree with him.
Correa has been injury prone and will be a factor going forward, and he's never been a guy to hit 30/100 with .300 avg. Lindor has shown to be healthy year in and year out. But let's say for arguements sake that he does get over $30 mill. I still don't see 10 years. 8/$250 at most. And no the Astros only offered a low ball amount that didn't even come close to $200 mill so it wouldn't have been done before. Astros wanted at most 5 years. They'll have to bump that up to 7 or 8 to retain him. I think the Astros will go up to that 7 to 8 year mark and state. We have a core lineup that can continue to go to the playoffs and compete for a WS every year. You want to be a legend or do you want to try and get 10 years and play for a losing team?
has not nearly as much to do as his post season stats, and prime among that is the RBI clip he's on. that's why someone's going to break the bank for him, not because of the 2021 regular season
I can understand but who is going to pay $350+ mill to put him on a team that can't even GET to the post season? Clubs pay that amount for HR hitters because the sexy numbers draw fans, but clubs that sign that amount of money to a FA have a hard time even getting to the playoffs. I don't think Correa sells out over a figure. He'll get his opportunity in Houston for many years to come and be well compensated for it.
I'm not a GM and my guess as to what Carlos will get paid is no better than anyone else's. That being said, if there was one stat to single out in terms of what will get someone paid, it's definitely not RBIs.
Some teams sign marquee free agents because they are already contenders and they think the player will put them over the top. The Yankees fit this mold and are probably the favorites to sign Correa. The Giants and Mariners are also in this tier and could likely afford a $300M contract if they were so inclined. The Angels and Phillies would be dark horses from this tier. The Dodgers are in this tier but likely would not be a fit for Correa. Some teams sign marquee free agents because they are entering their competitive window and want to make a statement. The Tigers fit this mold and behind the Yankees they are probably the best fit for Correa. There’s also an argument that the Rangers are a fit. If the new CBA includes a payroll floor any number of teams (Marlins, A’s, Cubs, Orioles) would become a potential fit for Correa.
Springer was a post season hero and has amplitude of experience and yet he couldn't secure more than 6/150. Yes he's 5 years older so that's why the years but why not $30 mill per? I agree with you on many accounts that Correa will get offers and there will be teams that will try to pry him to them with a 10 year contract but I think $300 mill is his ceiling. If he could do 8/250 with the Astros or 10/300 with another club I think he picks the Astros. Hell if he was offered 10/$320 I still think he picks the Astros. Especially if the Stros front load his contract to $35 mil the first 2 seasons and have it tapper to $28-$30 mill the remaining. Oh, and all Correa has to do is look at how much NON-fun Cole is having in NY to know it's not worth the extra few mill. Oh and Correa will not go to the Marlins, Orioles, Athletics and 1000% not the Cubs.
that's the rub, and often times that's what happens, a player fades away into obscurity because they go to a team that doesn't know how to win
This is actually good news. Without this info, a more serious injury was on the table. Mccullers not being available next year could significantly impact or kill any chances we spend on Correa.
Correa is extremely likely to go to the team that offers him the most money. As for the Springer comparison, it’s not comparable. Springer was on the wrong side of 30. Hell even if you just add in the 5 year age difference at a paltry 30M/yr you get to $300M. The market could very well conspire against Correa for various reasons, forcing him to settle for something like $250M/7yr. But I wouldn’t bet on that outcome, and at this point I consider him extremely likely to secure well over $300M.
Correa expected 10/300 before this season. After a career year and a trip to the world series his expectations will be north of 400 and though he may have been willing to take less years and even less money before. I think he will hold out till spring training starts and still not be signed because what the market will bear means nothing to someone until they run up against it themself.
Correa turned 27 on September 22. If the Astros offer him an 8-year deal, he would turn 35 years old near the end of final month of the contract. Basically, he would play his final season as a 34-year-old. If he was offered a 9-year deal, his final season would primarily occur when he is 35. He’s the right age for the Astros or any team to make a long-term investment in him.
As a fan, I'd definitely give him 8 years. To entice him, I'd add an option after year 4. If he's still killing it, he could cash in again. If he sucks, he has 4 years of a big contract left.
To me this is really the only plausible scenario where Correa ends up back in Houston. If his market just doesn’t materialize (either the CBA issues hurt him or teams just dig in against him, both of which I think are very unlikely), I could see him coming back to Houston in something like $200M/6yr with the deal being heavily front loaded and including an opt out (or multiple opt outs).
I’d be willing to go 9 or 10 years, with years 9 and 10 being team options. Point is, there are ways to structure a long-term deal that makes sense for the Astros and Correa. The Astros are not the Rays when it comes to revenue and market size, and they should not be afraid of giving an elite, homegrown 27-year-old shortstop an 8-to-10 year contract, if structured properly.
