I would feel a lot more comfortable if Luhnow was making these decisions. Fans need to prepare themselves for losing Correa.
LMJ Framber Garcia Javier Urquidy Maton Taylor Alvarez Tucker Pena Meyers McCormick Lee Leon Free agents/Players acquired via Trade
10 years is def wildly in the future . but , this situation is different . Pence as a rookie was as old as tucker and yordan are now. Those guys are on a whole nother level. 5 years is a more realistic view , but even the 5 day weather forecast isn’t always great . I want to keep correa and think it’s worth the uncertainty of 10 years .
We are will not be contenders past 2025. That is when Tucker and Alvarez are free agents a year after Altuve and Bregman are free agents. Yuli will over 40 and Brantley will likely be gone. Once we blow it up after 2025, how long do you think it will take for us to rebuild? 4-5 years. Correa's contract won't hurt us during the rebuild because we won't be close to the luxury tax during those years. I say give him the 10 years but give him an opt out when everyone's contract is up. I bet he opts to go to a contender when we can't afford to keep the band together. The only way a 10 year Correa contract hurts us is if two of the kids in the farm system becomes as good as Correa, Bregman or Tucker which will extend our window. But even then, it will be a choice of keeping two of Correa, Bregman, Tucker, and Alvarez. I don't see any one of them being a lot better than Correa will be in 4 years especially with how important defense is.
Only way we're still contenders by 2025 is if Leon, Pena, and Lee all turn into above average players/borderline all stars to replace the decline of Altuve and Bregman. Two of Brown, Whitley, and Santos would need to hit the majors and become above average pitchers. Its possible, but so unlikely that I wouldn't worry about Correa's contract turning into an albatross.
I don’t get it. If you sign Correa, Tucker, Alvarez even if you lose both Altuve and Bregman to age that is still a dynamite core. What about Myers or Siri? They have super potential (especially Siri). Framber, Garcia, Urquidy will all be in their prime. We’ve been spoiled by an 8 deep lineup for several years, but teams have competed and won without as much. I think we are built as a perennial contender for another decade (which was Luhow’s plan) and is now Click’s.
Dont miss what has been done this year. The emergence of our youth has demonstrated that big budget spending is not required to remain at the top of this game. We follow more closely to the path of the SF Giants. We will retain many of our big weapons, and afford them by finding the youth to keep the budget from collapsing this team again.
Yes, youth must make positive contributions to a team in order to be a World Series contender. Youth for the Astros in 2017 was Correa, Bregman, and McCullers... now it's Tucker, Alvarez, Luis Garcia... Perhaps an even more accurate indicator of success is contributions from pre-free agent contract players. The Astros have received enormous contributions over the last 5+ years from these players, and will continue to do so for the next few years. The Golden Era will end when the youth pipeline runs dry. We'll need Pedro Leon, Jeremy Pena, and Korey Lee to contribute in the next couple of years.
I do love our starting pitching for the next 5 years: McCullers Valdez Garcia Javier Truth be told, Javier could still be the best of the lot. This team is going nowhere for a while.
No one is posting about the demise of anyone. The point is that 2025 is a long way away and lots of things change. In 2025, Bregman will be a 31 yr old free agent. Will the Astros want to keep him? Will he be healthy? Will he be better (or cheaper) than Correa? No one knows. There's no point in making a decision today based on what you think you might need to deal with in 2025. This whole "if we keep Correa today, we might lose Player X in 4 years" stuff is dumb.
Urquidy is another and the 2 wildcards in Whitley and Brown. Maybe 3 with Santos in a couple of years.
This is only required when the farm, budget and contracts are not managed well. With Crane, Click and the rest of the FO, we should avoid this problem.
