The Astros would have close to a 50/50 chance against the Dodgers..... there are a number of reasons for that, but the talent disparity isn't as large as it seems and the Astros essentially coasted most of the year.
This. There are a LOT of pitching question marks on both sides in this series. For the Red Sox, there are concerns about Sale..... he only lasted 1 inning and gave up 5 runs last time out against the Rays.... and that isn't a fluke as Sale has since September 6th given up 18 runs in 21 innings and hasn't gone longer than 5.1 innings. Now Sale claims he watched video and figured out the problem and fixed it..... we will wait and see. Also Sale has struggled in the post season in his career. Nathan Eovaldi has really, quietly been the best pitcher on the Red Sox. He can go deep in games, doesn't walk many and strikes out a lot. He is on par with Framber Valdez of the Astros. The Sox also will likely start Eduardo Rodriguez and he isn't any better than Garcia or Urquidy for the Astros. The Astros also have a better bullpen at the top..... I like the Astros defense better as well. This is baseball, anything can happen.... luck plays a really big part in the outcome.... but the Astros should win this series, but anything can happen over 7 games.
7 games seems like a big sample size but it really isn’t. Luck is a big player in playoff baseball. We can beat anyone with or without Lance, just like we can lose to a team when we have JV, Cole, and Greinke.
For what it's worth, the Zips project at Fangraphs has Lance being out a 6% swing. Their projection went from 50/50 to Boston 53/47. Lance not pitching is significant, but not the "sky is falling" end of the world situation some are making it out to be.
Losing Lance is clearly a big loss, but it’s funny how I keep reading about him being the “ace.” I mean he definitely was recently, but I remember during the start of the season, Greinke was the ace, then Dusty said it was Framber, then Lance... Maybe a new ace will step up now. There are four in every deck.
While I love Lance, for this series you are looking at a likely 10 innings that would he would have pitched. The difference between a 2 ERA and a 4 ERA for those 10 innings is just over two runs … not a huge task to make up against a highly mediocre Red Sox staff. It sucks, but it isn’t the end of the world. It will be worse in the WS because you might have had him over 3 games if things timed out well, and runs will be much harder to come by against LA than Boston.
Boston pitching isn't very good, and I think our offense is better. Wonder why Fangraphs had it at 50/50.
Completely agreed. I think it's clearer to say you either win 4 or you lose 4. 4 games. Any 1 game can be cost here or there by a bad hop or a lot of hard hit balls that find the fielders' gloves. It's the least predictable of the major sports. It's terrifying, honestly.
Dodgers pitching is very good. We have a better offense, but Walker Buehler, Julio Urias and Max Scherzer is a pretty tough trio.
Playoff baseball is incredibly intense. By far the best of all the sports. Hockey is a close second if you have a routing interest. My favorite sport is basketball, but the way the NBA changes the rules in the playoffs and is so obvious in their big market bias sickens me. Off topic, but this year’s playoff baseball, like never before, makes me want the robot umps. I used to think the umps histrionics and the human element were fun, but the umps are inserting theirselves way too much and the technology has been so perfected it makes no sense for these dipshits to have so much control over the outcomes.
