At the end of the day, I would be super happy if we resigned him. I'm going to understand if he leaves for a ridiculous 350 million dollar offer. What's going to piss me off is if he leaves for 7-8yrs 275mil.
No way they want to move that baby out of Houston. Too many aunties and uncles here for the next few years. If Astros make a competitive offer, he stays. Doesn't have to be the absolute highest or longest.
Carlos Correa has been reasonable in what he has said all along. I just don't think that he believes the Astros will give a 10 year contract, which is what he wants. I actually think ownership would entertain it if Correa had been an iron man. The problem is that the GM doesn't want to give anyone a 250 million dollar, 10 year contract..... Correa has had arguable the most under rated season in all of baseball and arguably has played well enough to win an MVP this season. While his raw stats don't jump off the screen, he lead the league in overall WAR and he was the best fielder in baseball from WAR. He is also a few years from 30, has shown he is healthy and still has unrealized upside. I think Correa is back if they win the WS, otherwise I see someone like the Rangers or Yankees offering him close to 300 million dollars and the Astros will not match that. Even though Correa wants to stay an Astro, and Crane wants him to be an Astro..... 10/300 is a massive investment and a decade is a really long time. I don't think the problem is going to be the AAV, it is the length and Correa has made it very clear he wants 10 years and someone will give it to him. How much is the 40% chance Correa is a Hall of Famer worth to the Astros and the value of the franchise long term? How important is the fact Correa has his best seasons in an Astros jersey worth? My guess is that Crane and Click think about Pujols leaving the Cardinals and see that as an excuse to let Correa leave.
Correa isn't stupid..... it is only to his advantage to say he loves the East Coast. Some of his largest possible suitors are on the East Coast.
Are there any SS prospects in our farm system that have the potential to replace Correa? Being a good hitter is part of it but defense is big. Do we need to get one from Puerto Rico or wherever?
On paper we have guy in Jeremy Pena who seems to poised to slide right in next season. However downgrading from a known to an unknown in the middle of a title window...is a risk. Addtional roster tweakage would be required to compensate.
It's overly simplistic, but from a VERY raw standpoint, it is going from a 7+ WAR player to someone that MAYBE gives you 3 WAR next year if he plays well. So that would mean the Astros have to add at other positions to make up the difference (again very raw view). The issue is that the Astros are essentially locked in everywhere except catcher and SS. They COULD in theory add a star centerfielder but then they are dropping money for a position where they have two cheap in house options with upside. For the last year catcher has been the spot I have heard where the Astros will try to improve offensively when Correa leaves.
The difference being that the Cardinals did sign Pujols to his first extension… he played there for 10 years. Agreed otherwise… although if Correa is even close to still being a decent MLB player at age 33, he’ll have trade value and if the Astros needed to get out of the 10 year deal, they’d be able to. (Unlike a 40+ year old Pujols).
I don’t think anybody should be pinning any major hopes/expectations right off the bat on Peña (who probably won’t be a call-up till later in the season if current arb rules still exist). That’s a lot of pressure on him. Not everybody excels like Correa did right after being called up. If he struggles like Bregman/Tucker, there will be more of the usual responses heard around here…
When you start looking at allocation of resources for the next 3 seasons, it honestly gets hard to justify NOT signing Correa. If we don't sign Correa we can use that money to improve...what exactly? We aren't gonna throw huge money at a big time pitcher and bullpen help isn't that expensive 4 of the positions are locked in for a few years (Bregs, Tuve,Tucker,Yordan) We have a good young option in CF. We could upgrade to compensate for Pena, but that's just wasting assets to end up in the same spot keeping Correa would have us in. Spend asset to improve CF versus having Pena as a big tradeable asset A similar argument can be made for C although Lee isn't as close to the majors. Defense is too important to just add any bat. Brantley and Yuli are getting on in age, but they also play by far the easiest positions to replace offensively.
10 year deal with 3 year opt out! Then they all depart together (Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez).
Of course there are no guarantees. But Carlos Correa is a bona fide winner; in such a way, that he has that rare clutch mentality. Altuve, Springer, Bregman, and Carlos have a winning attitude. Those guys don’t flinch under pressure; sure they aren’t gonna hit every at bat, but they don’t fold like so many other stars do during the pressure cooker situations. FYI, I think Tucker and Alvarez are honing in that same can’t lose mindset… Correa if he stays healthy is gonna be in the MVP running for a good 40 to 50% of this next contract length (and the more I’m thinking about it, he might just get his 10 year deal). Hence, imagine Correa rubbing off on the Yankees. It would be like the Derek Jeter’s Yankees of the 90’s and early 2000’s.
2016 153 Games 660 PA 7.0 WAR Hey! Back up the armored truck. 2017 109 games 481 PA 6.7 WAR - Good season, Injury must be a fluke. 2018 110 Games 468 PA 3.1 WAR Uh Oh! 2019 75 Games 321 PA 3.7 WAR - Will he ever have a healthy season again? 2020 58 Games 221 PA 1.7 WAR - I wonder what would happen in a full season? 2021 148 Games 640 PA 7.2 WAR. - Back up the truck and pay the man. He'll have 600 PA and 7 WAR for the next 10 years. SHORT TERM MEMORY SYNDROME.
I don't like 10 year contracts at all but if Correa is willing to sign for 10yr/270 mil...I'll do it. Give opt outs after year 3 and 5.
We can talk about his past history all we want, but the fact of the matter is DESPITE that injury history, he's one of the greatest hitters in postseason history. So obviously it can be stated pretty definitively at this point that his injuries have NOT affected his ability to perform in October, and ultimately, isn't that the point of signing someone like him?? Who gives a flying **** if he misses games in June and July.....if he's there in October, you KNOW he's going to shine. PAY THE MAN.
Correa is so next level smart, you can tell by the way he talks analytics. He basically said if the numbers are more similar because of taxes he doesn’t care about making headlines of being highest payed guy. Sounds like something that’s common sense but when it comes to this level things like ego can get involved .
