Rockies have said Marquez is not going anywhere. The fact that they already have started throwing out sizeable extensions to middle of the road guys tells me they aren't blowing it up and he isn't going anywhere. If the Astros just swap Pena for Correa at SS and do not boost the offense somewhere else I will be disappointed. I would also like to see the Astros make a run at Raisel Iglesias. They were in on Hendriks so why not? Raisel should be a little cheaper. I also would rather pay him than Graveman.
From what I have been told, the Astros don't plan on swapping Pena for Correa without an upgrade on offense. He said the only prohibition on that would be if the market just doesn't materialize. So I am confident they will intend to upgrade the offense. I know the Astros want another starting pitcher. I haven't heard much about the pen but I am sure that they will have to address that spot. I would be happy with Raisel over Graveman as well. However, I think when it comes to the bullpen, it will come down to how much money and the number of years. There are about a dozen to two dozen relievers that will be free agents that potentially can operate as high leverage relievers and the Astros will likely get one of those guys (preferably two).
The Astros dreadfully need another TORP. LMJ/Framber just aren't enough to carry this pitching staff particularly with a more-or-less mediocre pen.
So if Pena is at SS the only realistic places to upgrade the offense are CF and C... Verlander makes the most sense to me for getting a difference maker starting pitcher Scherzer said no already to coming to Houston I wouldn't pay Rodon, Ray, or Gausman 100 million plus Syndergaard will probably stay with the Mets Kershaw is hurt all the time Stroman seems unlikely after his comments regarding the cheating scandal
If that is true then C or CF are really the only places they could possibly upgrade the lineup. Contreras is really the only catcher who might be available who would represent a significant offensive upgrade from Castro/Maldy, unless they go after Gary Sanchez (gulp). And adding an elite hitting CF (Marte in free agency or Buxton via trade are the two obvious options) would block a guy who has looked like a 3 win player (of course at this point Meyers would likely make a pretty good trade chip). One thing I noticed is that other than the Rays who have far more player resources than pretty much any other team, Houston is in really good shape in terms of financial capacity and tradable players. Trading for 2 really good players (say Contreras and Castillo) and signing 2 good free agents (say Verlander and Raisel Iglesias) is totally possible for them to do this offseason.
Astros have $110 mil commited too ten guys w/ Pressly’s option vesting and the likelihood Gurriel’s is picked up (and they can probably be fine shedding some payroll with Odorizzi for a good prospect or two.) They don’t have a ground breaking number of arb-eligible guys. Valdez has short service time, Diaz maybe gets a million more (missing most the year), They could let Raley walk, etc Having maybe the best group of league minimum, pre-arbitration guys in baseball goes A LONG WAY in giving Correa 25-30 mil/yr. I don’t see the Astros having less than 60-65 mil too add too 2022 payroll. Hoping Verlander takes the QO don’t see him getting more on the open market. Ray would be the backup option for me. There’s too many intangibles that losing Correa would not replace. I see the 2022 Astros like... Maldonado/Castro Gurriel/Altuve/Correa/Bregman/Diaz Tucker/Brantley/McCormick/Alvarez (LF) Two Spots amongst: Meyers, Pedro Leon, Pena, Siri, K. Lee, Stubbs, etc McCullers Valdez JV/Ray Two Spots in the rotation and two in the pen for L. Garcia, Urquidy, Odorizzi, Javier High Leverage Guys: R. Iglesias or top setup arm Pressly Stanek Baez Two spots amongst: Paredes, Taylor, Maton?, Raley, Solomon, Ivey, J. James, Abreu, Bielak, Prospect, etc
I've found the easiest way is to work backwards from this season's luxury tax salary. I'm using mlbtraderumors estimated arb numbers that were released today, and also assuming Astros do not offer arbitration to Montero. 208 mil 2021 payroll - 33 mil Verlander - 24.7 mil Greinke - 11.7 mil Carlos - 2 mil Raley - 2.5 mil Smith - 500k Graveman - 690k Yimi - 88k Marwin - 815k Montero = 132 million + 10.5 mil McCullers AAV raise + 1.25 mil Pressly raise + 1.5 mil Yuli raise + 750k Castro raise from incentives reached in 2021 + 1.5 mil Maldonado raise + 4.5 mil Odorizzi incentives likely reached for innings pitched (could be as much as 6.75 mil) = 152 mil (arb numbers from mlbtraderumors used to calculate raises) + 2.56 mil Framber arb raise + 1 mil Diaz arb raise + 1 mil Stanek arb raise + 1.175 mil Maton arb raise over the 325k or so Astros paid to him this season + 98k James arb raise = 157.83 mil IF lux tax was the same in 2022 as it was in 2021 they would have like 48 million MAX to spend in the offseason while still leaving 4 million to add payroll at the deadline.
Good analysis. I think it’s very safe to assume that Houston will have $40-70M to spend this offseason, with where they fall in that range depending on how much the tax threshold increases and how much they want to save for the deadline. It’s so awesome that whether or not the owner will approve up to the tax is not a concern for the Astros.
It's really early to say what the Astros will have to spend with the new CBA being a total unknow. Are pre-arb players going to get raises? Are arb players going to make more money or have less arb seasons before free agency? Mlb proposal was to set aside a billion for them which is way more than spent on arb this season. Will it be an aged based system? Will teams have to share more revenue with the lower teams for a salary "floor"? I just hope they get a deal done on time. Missing regular season games will be a disaster for this sport.
Maybe I’m naive but this is the world I would like to live in: - Resign Correa. Must be to something that hurts but that is still competitive (e.g., ~8/240 - 10/300 range with incentives and opt outs…knowing good and well that CC will in all likelihood receive higher offers elsewhere). This lets (forces) us stay the course with Meyers/Chaz in CF who are cheap and controllable for years to come. This eliminates the need to outsource for an expensive CF upgrade to combat the loss of CC. Im just not in love with the notion of spending in dollars or prospects the haul required for a star CF when the tandem of the M and M bros looks pretty good on its own. Plus with Correa staying (and the rest of our offense in tact), we can realistically survive on Maldado/Castro/internal options for the foreseeable future at C with how loaded our farm is there, so no need to outsource there either for a major upgrade to offset the loss of CC. Then sign JV and run it back, let internal pitching depth and minor leaguers continue to grow/develop and compete for appearances and we should be good. Then lock up one of Alvarez or Tucker down the road if possible, or both if Crane is frisky and wants to really dominate. What’s not to like? Keeping CC is going to be expensive as hell but it’s really a priceless move for Crane (well, for the fan base at least), and compliments the rest of our team/organization pretty well. HOU fans needs to continue to show up and provide Crane with the rationale to afford all of our stars, but I’m hopeful Crane wants to keep this core together a bit longer.
Not a terrible plan but CC+JV likely eats up all of their available payroll, leaving no money to upgrade the bullpen. That could be fixed by using prospects (led by Pena) to trade for elite relievers on pre-arb contracts. I for one do not hate the idea of leaving room in the bullpen for 2-3 young arms, as I view Abreu, Paredes, Dubin, Taylor, James, and several others in the upper minors as having late inning upside and don’t relish the idea of replicating the Baez and Stanek signings and the Maton/Garcia/Graveman trades every year.
I don't think he's worth any one of the three, much less all three. He's has an ERA+ below 120 and 2.1 WAR. That's below Valdez and Garcia and the same as Urquidy in more innings. You think Ed Wade's back in town?
I'm not high on Abreu at all and would definitely use him as a trade chip. Same with Paredes. Civale got hurt mid-season but was having a great year before the injury. I think it is a bit too much but I think Abreu + Paredes for an upsider with 4 years of control is fine. Who are some top-end starters who could realistically be available? Most who I'd think of are unlikely to be moved.
I want Marte and they can use Meyers or McCormick as part of a package for a starter. I agree I want Rasiel over Graveman but Iglesias probably looking for a big payday and probably wants to remain a closer. Only thing I'm hoping is Astros still offers a decent amount and he takes a little less and a set up man role to play for a contender. Also Click was apparently hard after Hendricks and Treinen so maybe he goes hard after Iglesias regardless of Pressly already here as a closer. Also do they plan on keeping Montero? He looked OK in limited games or was he strictly a throw in and he's gone after this season? Is Baez a write off? Each year his velocity goes down and it was down this year. I'm sure the injury had a little to do with it but not completely. Oh one more thing. Think Collin McHugh was a fluke this season? Will Astros have interest. If so I'm sure a deal will be reached.
Glasnow could be on the trade block, per rumors. I know he has injury concerns but the dude is electric. There also is the question of TJS recovery, and if he'll be affected post-Stickygate. I also imagine they'd prefer to deal him to the NL, if they do trade him. But Click is familiar with him and the Rays FO, and we have done business before.
Just a question, but why in the blue f**k are yall talking about trading for anybody, at the moment, since we're going to the ALCS and all? Again....curious.
Just a question, but why in the red **** are YOU coming on here nagging people about discussing trade ideas, ever? Let people talk about whatever they wanna talk about whenever they feel like it. Life’s hard enough.
Stupid move. Kimbrel rebounded with the Cubs after his disastrous first season there, might as well kick the tires on him instead of selling low.
