Although it's a short sample size to truly gauge Valdez, but he looked pretty good last yr in the playoffs. Minn 5 IP 0 ER Oak 7 IP 2 ER TB 6 IP 2 ER TB 6 IP 1 ER Urquidy has had a few nice performances but he's also had a few bad outings as well in the playoffs.
To me this is really unlikely because it is pretty clear that the Astros do not think the traditional player value metrics like war are an accurate way to measure catcher value. They seem pretty committed to Maldonado as the everyday catcher and it wouldn’t make sense to spend big to upgrade over Castro as the backup. Click is going to have to make a call on whether he believes Pena is going to be a good SS in 2022 or not. He’s got some insurance already as Diaz profiles as a league average bat who can handle SS, but if he thinks Pena is the guy then they need to focus their resources elsewhere (pitching).
You are missing how this conversation started. Someone mentioned trading for Salvador Perez which obviously isn't happening. My point was if the Astros are going to trade for a catcher Contreras makes more sense than Perez who is an untouchable. I'm not saying it is likely to happen. Also, if the Astros are letting Correa walk and rolling with Pena at SS they easily have the money to address pitching and afford the 3rd arb salary for Contreras if they wanted.
No trade or FA signing at catcher. The Astros have 2 bonafide catcher prospects. It is more likely that one of them will be a trade chip. If we have to ride with Maldonado and Castro for another year so be it, but I think it is more likely one will be gone and Corey Lee promoted. More problematic is the loss of Correa. It is hopeful that Pena turns out to be the real deal, but it is far from certain. Leon has not cemented himself as a can’t miss prospect either and most indications are that he is an outfielder. Myers, McCormick and Siri sure look like keepers so one in center and one 2 years from now as a Brantley replacement. Alvarez needs to learn 1b period. He is not going to ever be a legitimate LF. Unless, we have the universal DH we need him to find a position. We need to save our powder for pitching. Graveman should be re-signed. Verlander given a QO just to get the draft pick. No long term deal. McCullers, Valdez, and Urquidy are solid at 2,3,4. Brown if not used in a trade should be our 5 next
My current offseason trades: Astros get: SP Luis Castillo Reds get: RHP Cristian Javier RHP Bryan Abreu RHP Peter Solomon OF Colin Barber Astros get: RP Taylor Rogers Twins get: OF Jose Siri RP Blake Taylor Sign Verlander to a QO, pay McHugh, then ride with Pena at SS and Meyers in CF. Bring back Marwin as the 13th position player. Roster: 2B Altuve LF Brantley 3B Bregman DH Alvarez 1B Gurriel RF Tucker SS Pena CF Meyers C Maldonado Bench: Diaz, Castro, McCormick, Marwin Rotation: Castillo, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, Odorizzi Bullpen: Urquidy, James, Maton, Stanek, Baez, McHugh, Rogers, Pressly If Pena and/or Meyers struggle (and Leon doesn’t show ready to step in) they’d have plenty of prospects to acquire insurance at the deadline.
I actually like the Castillo trade. He has two more yrs of arbitration. Do you think the trade you're proposing would be enough? Also, in regards to JV, are you saying that they make the QO to get the draft compensation pick and do you think JV would accept it? You don't show JV in your rotation so I'm assuming you think he signs elsewhere?
Opinions on the value of Houston’s young pitchers (Urquidy, Garcia, Javier, Abreu) will vary greatly. I think Castillo has $20-30M of surplus value remaining and I think that package of young players is in range of fair value. Often times teams want “name” prospects when trading their star players and if that’s the Reds approach then they wouldn’t accept that deal from Houston. But I think those 4 guys offer a lot of value. I originally intended to project Verlander accepting the QO and goofed and left him off my projected roster. That pitching staff is pretty stacked without Verlander after adding Castillo, Rogers, and McHugh, but you could bump James and have Verlander in a 6 man rotation until injuries or performance weeded it out.
One way or the other, the Astros really need to land a TORP this off-season. I think if anything, failing to have an elite SP is going to bite them in this series against the Sox. The Astros are working against a huge SP disadvantage and that's even if you write-off Rodon as being irrelevant this series and SP are so critical in the post-season.
I mentioned Perez equating the 2021 Royals with the 2010 Astros who traded Berkman when they decided to dump any player with value to go for the ultimate rebuild. Then when Pence was having a good year in 2011, they traded him. I understand that barring such a decision by the Royals organization, it wouldn't happen. I just liked the Luhnow method of at least keeping the feelers out for such decisions. Contreras is actually in a similar position to replace WAR at catcher and CHC are even more likely to go for the rebuild. But I like having another 3 years already in place after next year.
If Castillo becomes available I don't believe the Astros will be the ones to land him. Cristian Javier as a headliner probably doesn't get it done. I would think the Reds would prefer a top shelf prospect that hasn't started his service time clock. If the Astros bring back Correa or sign another star SS like Semien, Story, etc then MAYBE a package built around Javier and Pena will get Castillo. Reds have been desperate for a SS for sometime.
This is actually my preferred route. Re-sign Correa, then use Pena as a headliner in acquiring a bona fide ace.
Like I said opinions on Houston’s talented young pitchers (mainly Urquidy, Javier, and Abreu) will vary greatly. There’s an argument that each of those guys has very high upside and value on par with a Top 100 prospect. Urquidy has been worth 3 fwar in 177 MLB innings and has a nearly dominant playoff start on his resume. Javier has had MLB success as well. Abreu has an elite breaking ball paired with a high velocity FB that gives him a ceiling on par with a healthy Lance McCullers; Strom has labeled Abreu as a future workhorse ToR SP. Of course on the other hand none of those guys had much prospect pedigree and all have had their inconsistency in the majors (and as you mentioned their service locks have started). So the right team would give up quite a bit of value for those pitchers; whether or not the Reds are that team is something we can’t know.
Indians get: RHP Bryan Abreu RHP Enoli Paredes SS Jeremy Pena Astros get: RHP Aaron Civale We get a good, young, controllable #2 to pair with Lance who has good spin rates and low walk rates. (We pay Correa in this hypothetical, rendering Pena tradeable.) I think Civale has untapped potential that Strom can maximize.
Civale has been nowhere near good enough to justify that return. In 256 big league innings he’s been worth 3.4 fwar, so he projects as something like a decent #4 or #5. He may have some untapped potential but you don’t give up an MLB Top 50 prospect for untapped potential. Pena should ony be traded for a player with an established track record (like Bieber) that the Astros can expect to maintain or improve. Switch out Pena for somebody like Joe Perez and you’ve probably got something closer to fair value for Civale. I would give up Pena, Abreu, Whitley, and Javier for Bieber.
I think it all comes down to cost. The Astros could afford someone like Maldonado because they were getting a lot of offense from a position like shortstop and the actual financial cost of Maldonado was low. However, with less offense at SS, they will need to add that somewhere. To me the most logical position is catcher. Now, that ENTIRELY depends on cost. If someone like Contreras doesn't have a massive trade cost because of his pending free agency, then I could see the Astros making that type of move. Contreras was very good with the glove this year and his bat stretches the line up and he is a bonafide hitter. He would be a bridge, but if he can allow the Astros to compete next year at a relatively low financial cost and a palatable prospect cost, then I think it makes a lot of sense. The Astros could potentially save a lot of money at the SS position, off set the offensive loss of Correa and have the financial assets to either keep Verlander or position themselves for a starter they like. Now they COULD do an end around and trade for someone like Gray or Castillo in Cincinnati and try to solve the situation that way as well. My point being, I think they will be open minded. I also would not be surprised if the Astros trade for a young reliever under multiple year control they feel is close to breaking out, like they did with Pressly. They are losing a could of good pen arms.... although they may be able to afford to keep Graveman based on his performance down the stretch.
mlbtraderumors put out estimated arbitration numbers... Rafael Montero – $3.1MM Aledmys Diaz – $4.0MM Phil Maton – $1.4MM Ryne Stanek – $2.1MM Josh James – $700K Framber Valdez – $3.2MM https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html
Luis Castillo is now 29 years old with two years of team control left. I would gladly take him, but he has some real warts..... he gives up a lot of base runners. He lead the league in walks this season, and it isn't like he is dominant at limiting hits either. He had like 260 base runners in 190 innings this season.
Easy yes to all except Montero. Maton the only possible question, but at that price his stuff is worth another look.
I took a look at every teams 2022 roster projections, here are the good players I think could be available this offseason: C: Willson Contreras, Tucker Barnhart*, one of Blue Jays catchers, Austin Hedges*, Gary Sanchez, Omar Narvaez* IF: Jose Ramirez*, Ketel Marte, Joey Wendle, Dansby Swanson* OF: Byron Buxton, Juan Soto, Ian Happ, Manuel Margot, Cody Bellinger SP: Stephen Strasburg*, Luis Castillo*, German Marquez RP: Jose Cisnero, Michael Fulmer, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Josh Hader* *denotes player is a little less likely to be available for a reasonable price. Strasburg will likely have to pitch well for the Nats in the first half to reestablish his value. Swanson will only be available if Atlanta signs one of the big FA SS. The others are on competitive teams so they’d likely have to be overwhelmed. From that list, Buxton and Rogers from the Twins catch my eye. German Marquez would make sense. Sure would be sweet to find a way to add Juan Soto’s bat to the lineup. Hader would look great in their bullpen.
I agree with your list. Swanson is interesting because he hasn't broken out and will be making over 10 million in arbitration this year, ATL may move him for less than people think. It would come down to the Astros scouting department really. Buxton would be a real high upside get at the right cost, but I wonder if someone as conservative as Click would make that deal or go with Meyers and McCormick because they are under long term control? I think that Sonny Gray and Sean Manaea may be options as well.
