I just want the Dodgers to lose the Wild card. Nothing would make me happier other than the Stros winning the whole thing.
This is the order of preference to LOSE for me: 1. Chicago Cubs 2. New York Yankees 3. Los Angeles Dodgers 4. New York Mets 5. Texas Rangers 6. Other Division opponents. 7. San Francisco Giants One exception is todays game where I hope the Rangers beat the Indians before they become Pagans. The destruction of the Indian Culture to be completed by "virtue" signalers.
Schoenfeld has a good breakdown on espn also: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...ow-tiebreakers-wild-cards-last-day-mlb-season Five-Thirty-Eight has the odds of a 4-way tie at 8%, btw. Make it happen, Baseball Gods.
WIth home field being pre-deterimined on those matchups, it does take some of the guess work away. A three-way tie is actually very convoluted. I posted this in the other thread... but would you rather have to win 2 home games or only have to win 1 road game to advance? The top ranked team will get that choice if they have a 3-way tie for the 2nd WC spot.
That's a little better than a coin flip. 1 team 50%; 2 teams 25%; 3 teams 12.5%; 4 teams 6.25%. So 1.75% above coin flip.
Uh...coin flips are random and every single flip has a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails. Game results are not random. You're comparing apples and not apples.
Come on Giants. Anything can happen in one game for the Dodgers against the Cardinals. Giants win, Yankees loss, Blue Jays win, Red Sox win, and Mariners win today please. Sucks the Yankees can't be completely eliminated. Too bad they still have a chance to get in with the tie scenarios.
You’re the best team of the three team tie (in terms of tiebreakers, h2h matchups, etc.), so you get to choose. You have all your starters available. You’d be playing on Tuesday if you choose the one road game. You’d be playing on Monday and Tuesday at home if you choose the two home games. You wouldn’t know the road game till the outcome of Mondays game is finalized.
Am i nuts to think the team with the choice should take 1 road game vs 2 home games? Pretty much no matter what? The Astros "decision science" team would have a ball with this question.
I would agree with that. You have a better chance of winning 1 game anywhere vs. winning 2 games back to back anywhere. The only reason not to do it is to try and travel less… and you already know your two possible opponents.
The odds favor the single Road team. Coin flip odds are 25% for 2 game wins vs a 50% 1 game win. Even giving the Home team a 60% win probability, two home wins is a 36% probability vs a 40% 1 game road probability.
Home teams win 54% of the time in baseball, taking the one road game option is even better than your numbers.
