But it isn't though. The Rockets could concede the seasno by selling off talent like Wood. His value right now is probably the highest it will be, if you're full tank, trade him. He's 26 so the chance he takes another huge leap (after already taking a huge leap) is pretty small. I think most agree Wood is likely going to be as good as he can be. He might get better defensively by a pinch here or there but I think most would be very surprised if he took another leap and became a perennial all-star player. This point is irrelevant to how the team actually does. I think if you're a fan you hope the team makes the playoffs. Why? Because the entire purpose of tanking is drafting a player that you literally can't tank with. Dallas, New Orleans, Memphis...those guys are done tanking. Sure, they could use another top 5 draft pick to pair with Doncic, Zion, and Ja...but those guys are simply too good to just throw seasons away. You HOPE Jalen Green is that level, if you're bad enough to go tanking for multiple seasons then that means you're not drafting a true franchise player anyways. If Green is that guy, 1-3 years he should drag the Rockets into playoff contention. If Green is a generational player, this whole idea of tanking next year and the year after that...won't be a conversation. The conversation then becomes "We need someone to pair with Jalen Green." I'd rather have that conversation than talking about the draft all over again. That means the team is past that first stage of building a contender. As above, it might correspond to losing...but if your GM is good at scouting and drafting then you're not going to be in tank mode for long. People talk about the Mavs a lot when it came to tanking but how long have they tanked since drafting Luka? Theoretically, you could say they SHOULD tank again, but if Luka is not hurt it will simply be impossible for that. Luka alone is dragging that team to contending for the playoffs and then missing the playoffs? Well...that's how you start talking about losing a player like Zion because he expected the playoffs his first year. How long did Atlanta tank? Memphis? Again, I think some tankers lose sight of the whole point of tanking. Drafting a generational star. You hope Green is that star and if he is, one year of being bad at most (this year), 2022-23 season his goal goes from "Being ROY" to "Making the playoffs" as it should be. Like you're not even talking about tanking for just next season, but the season after that... Look back at all the young teams that draft true franchise players, these teams don't stay bad for long. If you're tanking for more than 2 seasons then I'd argue you're doing something wrong. This ties into how good the Rockets should be...KPJ and Wood have enough experience to carry teams now. Either they are good enough to do so or not. I'm hoping they are good enough to do so. I think that helps the team contend faster than another year of tanking does. I'd rather learn by the end of the year the Rockets found its young core instead of learning that we need to spend another season looking for it.
Again.... Vegas and the media at large are putting their chips on bottom 5 despite your Wood optimism. Frankly the leap you hope will most likely not happen when he is surrounded by super young players. I disagree, you tailor the strategy to your specific team. We aren't where those teams are.... we are closer to bottom 5 bedrock than fighting for a playoff spot. Green literally hasn't played a game of NBA pre season yet And 3 years corresponds to last season plus the following two. We have a two season window where we can see what we have in Green WHILE AT THE SAME TIME accumulating other high draft picks and seeing what we have with the rest of the young guys. This doesn't hinge on Green..... Maybe we flip Green, Sengun, a top 5 2022 pick, some future FRPs for a Zion like player? The point is when the time comes after 3 seasons we either have developed a foundational piece or have the assets to trade for one. Well duh.... but as you should be aware you need luck too. Not every draft has a generational player. Also there's the whole trade aspect with our war chest of picks and young talent. Do they talk about Mavs and tanking? Mavs got lucky to have a draft with a Luka level player and got lucky they had a trade partner in Atlanta. Going back to my point above, 2018 was a really great draft which is just the luck of the draw. Might be a year or two to get an idea of the 2021 draft. And you lose sight of the bigger picture because of your dislike of "tanking" and come up with these ridiculous expectations... We made the playoffs for how long with Harden and you just expect a quick two year turn around and back to the playoffs? We traded Harden like a third of the way into last season.... so we are literally only like 2/3s into the first year of rebuild..... You can't draft what's not there..... And we can also trade high picks, future picks, players like Green, players like Wood, etc for a true superstar. Why you keep dismissing the overall strategy of team building and only focusing on the draft is beyond me. Again with these unrealistic expectations..... I hope we do get lucky and can contend for a playoff spot next season, but I feel you are going to be extremely disappointed when you see this team on the court.
I didn't say we should expect the Rockets to make the playoffs, in fact I said I expect them to be a bad team. I said we should hope they contend for the playoffs, that would be the best outcome for the team because it means Wood is a lot better than we think and KPJ as well and it might mean we have drafted a truly special player. Also, if your plan is to steal a player away like Zion what better way to do that then to show him and other young stars this is where you want to be if you want to win? Why would Zion want to come here (it is his choice, remember that) if we've been busy tanking the past 3 seasons? Why would he want to go from trying to carry one team to trying to carry another team? Seems more likely that he'd only consider teams that are looking upwards. Why come here when he can go to Dallas or Memphis? It is his choice, superstars decide in the end, not the teams. All those assets mean nothing if Zion says "I don't want to play there." so your strategy kind of depends on being a respectable franchise and you get respect by winning. Now as to KPJ and Wood needing to carry this team, that's true. Wood isn't some rookie, he's a 6 year vet, if he's not ready to lead a team now then he simply never will be. He knows that. KPJ isn't a rookie either, this will be his 3rd year, while he still has another season or two before you can expect him to breakout and be a bonafide star (or hope for that) but he's had tons of breakout games last season...what if he comes into the season doing that and does it consistently? We'll be bad I think, how bad? Bad enough for a top 5 pick again? I'm not so sure of that. I think they'll be a little better than that. If the Rockets end up with the 8th pick or something would you be disappointed in the season?
Hope is a poor strategy in this type of cut throat competition. If we end up vastly exceeding expectations then we are ahead of schedule and that is great. But it's very possible that won't be the case. That's kind of the catch 22.... you have to have the assets to outbid other teams. Would Zion want to have his own team or team up? IDK, but if he is willingly to gamble on himself by leaving the Pels and does want his own team then we need to be ready for it... So far you really haven't outlined any strategy except hope what we currently have is enough. I'm advocating we concurrently explore multiple avenues, that includes taking advantage of a 2 year window where we are incentivized to go for high draft picks. I'd rather not gamble in 2024 for a high draft pick when OKC owns the protected swap. I hope that is the case, but I wouldn't bet on it or plan team building around that. I think our record will be bottom 5, but that doesn't necessarily mean we will get a top 5 pick. I wouldn't be disappointed in the 8th pick in itself, but I would be disappointed if only a few game separated us from a record that comes with much better draft odds. From my perspective I hope the Rockets get a top 5 pick in 2022 and a top 12 pick in 2023. I feel like being a bottom dweller for two seasons and then being in the running for a play in spot is a realistic timeline.
If you draft well, tanking helps build asset value. It won’t get you to the top of the mountain, but it shortens your journey to base camp. Smart teams can then determine if their draft picks are enough to build around or if they need to trade them for ready-made stars before embarking on the dangerous trip to the summit. Sure, there are other ways to get to base camp (player development, great coaching, small trades or FA signings that add incremental asset value), but tanking is faster and more likely to succeed (you only need to get 1-2 big decisions right vs many small ones). The question we should be focusing on is: “Do we have confidence that our management team can get these big decisions right?”. If the answer is no, then, by all means, let’s forget about tanking.
But when you rely on the draft as heavily as you are you're also hoping that you don't draft busts, which could very well be the case here. It's more likely the guy you draft is a bust than a superstar, that's also realistic view. So the whole strategy of tanking is predicated on hope. Being bad for 2 more seasons? The whole point of tanking, I bring up, is to draft a generational star. If Green is that guy, we'll be contending for the playoffs in 2023, not looking forward to another draft lottery. These guys usually don't take 3-5 years to develop into stars, more like 2-3 years. Look at all the young stars in the NBA. Trae, Luka, Ja...these dudes are all 3 years in the NBA...they are already big time players. If come 2023 we're still talking about tanking for a superstar that might mean Green ain't it and the whole purpose of drafting #2 is picking that superstar franchise player. That's the whole point of picking top 5.
The deeper a draft is, the less likely it becomes to have absolute busts. I think it's more likely that a couple turns out to be just role players. And I do think it is good for the entire league to have more Top 20-30 ish players than just 4 superstars and the rest are Allstars and role players. With depth, comes more balance.
As opposed to relying heavily on internal improvement or trades? AGAIN.... we aren't solely relying on Green being a generational player..... STOP with this poor argument. Or trade for one with the high draft picks/war chest you've accumulated.... Why you keep missing the bigger picture is beyond me..... OK? I'd be happy if Green was a good as Ja.... It took the Grizzlies three seasons of Ja to make the play-in tournament. But what's your point exactly? These comparisons make zero sense since we don't know what we have in Green. We have a two season window to get high draft picks which lines up to your 3 year superstar development window..... And as I've said.... sometimes there isn't a superstar in the draft....
I feel like people don't appreciate we are only 2/3s of a season into the rebuild..... Patience folks.
Relying heavily on the draft assumes one understands there will likely be busts/guys that underperform such that a team needs more picks. Right now, it looks like Stone's strategy is to keep payroll flexible when Wall can be dealt or contract ends, and not to lose many additional picks except for players that will be ready when the team is ready. Putting a year on when a draft pick is a star is futile as most have a lot of risk. Stone will keep options open until there is a good path towards being a contender. Maybe neither Green nor Sengun become stars, and the 2022 or the 2023 draft pick is the figurehead for the team. I expect Green and Sengun both to become at least rotation players along with Garuba.
It comes down to player evaluation. If you look at KPJ, Wood, Green, Tate, and Sengun as nothing but mediocre trash, you're likely to support tanking for as many mystery boxes as possible. If you look at several of those players as potential all star caliber players, you are unconcerned about mystery boxes and you want to build a contender around them. I just don't think there's a way to bridge the gap between those 2 perspectives though.
This I agree with. That's what I mean by tanking is more based on hope than any other strategy. It's more likely that Jalen Green is a more athletic Lou Williams than him being the next Kobe. It's more likely that any guy you draft in the top 5 is just a really good starting level player and not the next MVP caliber player.
Huh? Internal improvement is something YOU can control a lot more than drafting. If you put drafting over improving your own players, good coaching, good team building, good luck to you. Warriors reached that next level because Kerr brought something out of Green that Jackson couldn't. Period. End of story. I ignore this point because you keep ignoring that said superstar player has to actually want to come here and likely won't if the team has been busy being the worst team in the NBA year after year. Actually took them 0 seasons. Ja's rookie season they finished one place out of the playoffs... not a tanking team, once they drafted him, they were through tanking. We don't know what we have in Green, true...but if you drafted a guy #2 to be a role player then you drafted the wrong guy. I think the Rockets have every expectation that Green will be an MVP caliber player, if they didn't they would have picked someone else.
I don't think the Rockets are personally. Everything we've seen from them is that they don't want to be here for many more years. The interest in Simmons, whether real or not we shall see...but the fact they traded for Oladipo was clear. I don't think the Rockets are in this mode where they want to be OKC and tank for years and years just hoping to draft the next superstar that might bolt for LA when he gets the chance to anyway. People also shouldn't be content with failure year after year for another roll of a dice either. Again, those teams you mentioned...they all turned it around pretty quickly. 2-3 years, some in one season...but I've seen people here try to sell me we have YEARS of tanking to do. Why have patience when other teams can do it quickly? You're on a 5 year timeline and I'm wanting the team to compete for the playoffs next season (2022-23) season. Not the 2026 season.
I think you're right here. Personally, I feel like you draft a guy #2, he better be an all-star. If not, why draft him? I think these guys are all high potential players, it will come down to coaching too which I'm questionable of to be honest...Silas has been mediocre and that's putting it kindly... But I do feel some of the pro tank people are way too excited about playing the mystery box game. I offered another fan here the options... a.) Jalen Green being a special player and leading his team to the playoffs Year 1, something all-time greats do or b.) Top 3 pick again And he said easily top 3 pick again. This is that mentality I can't get behind. I rather Green look like the next Jordan than having to play the lotto game again.
Warriors drafted and developed Green.... These team building strategies don't each occur in a vacuum as you are arguing..... You DRAFT and then DEVELOP.... We DRAFTED Green, Sengun, Garuba and now we need to DEVELOP them.... It just so happens this upcoming season's development will likely lead to a bottom 5 record. So you dismiss drafting, trades, and free agency as worthy team building strategies..... Well, we aren't the Grizzlies right now or when they drafted Ja. Each team's situation is different so I really don't understand why you keep going back to them. Wrong. The Rockets are shrewd enough to know
Man. Man oh man. No one here says 5 years. The vast majority do not say 5 years at least. Why?????????? Because the Rockets owe picks to the Thunder in a few years. There are variables and circumstances that are specific to every team. The Rockets have a very young team. The Rockets have a super max contract that does not fit into the time line at all. The Rockets want to get experience which will coincide with improvement for said young players. But can not compete obviously. Which makes the Rockets likely to not spend assets to trade Wall. There are many other general variables that will effect what should be done.
Frankly you just come off as a bit spoiled after the Harden era. Some teams just get lucky like the Mavs.... And frankly I don't see what's so special about the Grizzlies as no one is expecting them to be a top 4 team in the West for the foreseeable future. Even the Lakers had to TANK to get the assets for AD, in spite of AD wanting to play there. You completely ignore context merely say "well other teams did it quickly". And you completely ignore luck.
