1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

  2. Live Rockets Discussion
    Jalen Green looks like a legit star, Amen Thompson is shining and the Rockets have found something without Alperen Sengun. Clutch is talking about the 10-game winning streak at 11:00am as we talk Rockets live!

    Talking Rockets - LIVE!

Is this the last we will see of Carlos Correa?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by what, Oct 16, 2020.

  1. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    17,052
    Likes Received:
    12,909


    Happy Birthday Carlos!
     
  2. The Real Shady

    The Real Shady Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    17,170
    Likes Received:
    3,966
    I trust Luhnow, still waiting to see on Click. Just hope he doesn't use the money to saved from not signing Correa to bring in another Odorizzi, Castro, and Baez.
     
    The Beard likes this.
  3. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2016
    Messages:
    4,559
    Likes Received:
    6,317
    You keep bringing up this sentiment factor regarding Altuve and Verlander extensions. I think it was as much about being performance and value driven. Altuve was coming off an MVP year and the Astros had leverage to get a deal done because of the team friendly contract Altuve signed early in his career. No way Altuve would have only gotten a 5 year deal if he was a free agent. Altuve needed to cash in while his value was as high as possible instead of waiting 3 years for that contract to expire.

    For Verlander he was coming off a year where he finished 2nd in Cy Young and that was a year after leading the Astros to their first World Series. It also only required a 2 year deal which makes it much easier to agree to a fat salary, and it gave Verlander injury protection for the 2019 season. Astros don't have those factors with Correa. The Astros have no leverage and it will require a much longer deal to bring back Carlos.
     
  4. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    47,911
    Likes Received:
    14,150
    The Astros didn’t get a discount on either of those players. In the case of Altuve, they definitely didn’t have to extend him when they did…. Just think about all the other players they could have had the last 3 years with that money, along with now they’re paying a higher value for Altuve for still valuable, but not MVP, like performance.

    if you don’t think Cranes desire to win, their recent success, and the extra revenues tied to that success helped fuel those decisions, not sure where else to go with this discussion.

    The decision to possibly bring in any big free agent, including Correa, would be to optimize the potential to win for the remaining prime years of Bregman/Altuve as well as optimizing the cheaper years of the rotation. If they don’t feel there’s a clear pathway to contention, I don’t see them hanging on to players for sentiment.
     
    Htown Stros likes this.
  5. Colt45

    Colt45 Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2000
    Messages:
    2,844
    Likes Received:
    2,409
    And Dierk! On this date (his 18th birthday) in 1964 Larry Dierker made his major league debut for the Colt .45's.
     
  6. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2016
    Messages:
    4,559
    Likes Received:
    6,317
    Only having to extend Altuve 5 years was the discount. Signing an MVP where the contract ends at age 34 is a gigantic value over paying Miguel Cabrera or Pujols until their 40s. Altuve's deal was great value even compared to having to pay Yellich until he is 37 like the Brewers do. That deal doesn't even kick in until next year and they still had to extend him 7 years to get it done.

    Of course winning allows them to spend more money to continue trying to win. I never said it didn't, and Crane has showed his desire to win several times with the extensions and the Greinke trade. HOWEVER, none of those moves required an 8-12 year commitment north of 250 million to one player. He's never done it and you can't say he will based on a 5 year and 2 year extension to an MVP and a Cy Young runner up... something Correa won't be even with his really good year.

    Personally, I think they can "optimize" their window and have a better overall team by not paying Correa 30 million.
     
  7. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    47,911
    Likes Received:
    14,150
    They had free money with Altuve for another 3 years and could have then extended him at a reduced rate given his age/decline. They’re not as shrewd, $$ wise, as being portrayed… and there’s little chance they’d have offered that sort of deal when they did, without the success of winning it all. Unexpected splurges can come from a host of places. Also, locking in a younger Altuve for 7+ years at the age they did is not that different at locking in Correa till age 34 given how much younger he is at FA, but certainly at an increased price.

    Also just saying he’s “never done it” also doesn’t carry much weight. Correa is the very first possible candidate that could even entertain that sort of money/extension.

    Most didn’t think they would give the years/money to LMJ… and now in hindsight looks like a steal. They offered Keuchel 5/90.

    Seems like you don’t think any player is worthy of 8-12 year deals, and that’s a philosophy that will be hard to argue against once you’re dug-in, although I re-iterate that no team is truly stuck with that player for the life of their contract.

    I do think the Astros have a 3 year window to continue to win… regardless of the possible unknowns. That will take them to a period of contention for about 10 years, unheard of in Houston sports history (let alone Astros history). 1997-2005 was fun as well, although they did make a commitment to cornerstones to optimize that run. Doing a similar plan (and trading whichever high priced player they have left when the period of contention is over) is a strategy that Crane could consider… and gain plenty of generational fans that will look back on this era just as fondly as having Biggio/Bagwell type legacies for what is still a relatively young/lacking prolonged history/franchise.
     
    Wulaw Horn likes this.
  8. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2016
    Messages:
    4,559
    Likes Received:
    6,317
    Astros didn't have 2 guys on the roster that will be making 30 million a year in 2 years when they extended Altuve. You have to look at the whole picture. Verlander at 20 million and Keuchel at 13.2 million were their highest salaries, but those were only for 2 years left for Verlander and one for Keuchel at the time of the Altuve extension.

    Also, I never said nobody was worth an 8 plus year deal. 2018-2019 Bregman was worth an 8-10 year deal. I would have no problem paying Vlad Jr at age 22 an 8 plus year contract. Correa has been in the league 6 plus seasons. This is his best year and he is going to be a 6ish WAR player with a lot of that value coming from his defense. Bregman was a 7.6 and 8.4 WAR player at ages 24 and 25. I would have been fine if they gave Bregman 8-10 years that would have ended when he was 33-35 years old. Now with his recent injury problems Astros might be lucky they didn't give him that long of a deal. Plus Bregman probably wanted to secure his 100 million and get another shot at free agency at age 30.
     
  9. asianballa23

    asianballa23 Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2003
    Messages:
    3,215
    Likes Received:
    624
    hope we dont lose another star player to the yanks
     
  10. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    47,911
    Likes Received:
    14,150
    But still, he didn’t have to extend Altuve when he did. Crane also can afford more now compared back to 2015, and he also knows the true financial impact of having a year-in/year-out contender… albeit this year the attendance has been disappointing in comparison to how good the team is.

    Regarding the Bregman comp, that’s fair. But also a perfect example of why you can’t put much stock in players who produce early but get hurt late, and vice versa. The biggest concern with Correa has always been his ability to stay healthy… and the biggest concerns surrounding that was the back that was thought to be chronic, but now going on 3 years of no flare ups. Correa was on MVP-trajectories 2017/2019 pre other injuries that was at a younger age than Bregman’s peak. Correa probably hasn’t peaked either… or could have merely a sustained prime given his young age.

    Vlad could continue to put on the weight and start to have weight-related injury concerns. Tatis looks to be as safe a bet as possible, but this year has had its share of ups/downs that don’t necessarily go away. Guys like Harper/Trout are phenoms that nobody knows if they have the ability to do it on the biggest of stages, because they’re on teams that have never been there.

    Also, in 3 years time, the Astros won’t have any player making $30 million dollars…. I am looking at the whole picture and I just really want them to have the best known possible team during that time. As this year showed, having lineup redundancy (Brantley/Bregman missing huge chunks of time) can keep a team with a weak bullpen and no truly dominant starter not only afloat but in line for the best record in the league. Having clubhouse leaders who tend to perform well on the biggest stage is also something that can’t be automatically scouted or projected in a minor league or FA,
     
    everyday eddie likes this.
  11. Marshall Bryant

    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2018
    Messages:
    8,764
    Likes Received:
    4,704
    Just a nit or two. Verlander WON the Cy Young AND threw his third No Hitter. Cole was the one that came in second and left for NYY.

    I think giving him the 2 year deal was a good idea at the time, even though he wound up being injured. But I see a Qualifying offer as a given and very low risk. $20M for a potential ACE if he recovers fully or draft value because someone else will pay to take the risk, Altuve was signed coming off the MVP and three batting titles in four years. Bregman was signed coming off a fifth and second in MVP voting.

    All of these deals were below market or expected Arbitration plus market in Bregman's case. None exceeded 7 years.
     
  12. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2016
    Messages:
    4,559
    Likes Received:
    6,317
    No, I was talking about the season before Verlander got his extension. In 2018 Verlander finished 2nd in the Cy Young to Blake Snell. Verlander signed the extension in spring training 2019. He won the Cy Young in 2019 AFTER he had signed the extension.

    I'm all for giving Verlander the qualifying offer.

    Let me make this clear... I'd love it if the Astros decided to keep Correa if they thought they could keep fielding a competitive team and were willing to go above their current payroll levels. I'm saying I don't think they will resign him. What we have heard from Correa and Altuve and what I've heard from other people lead me to believe he is not staying. I think though that even without Correa the Astros can make some moves this offseason and be a better team next year than they are this year.

    Yes, they are better off financially than 2015 but 2020 was a kick in the nuts and like you said attendance hasn't recovered yet. They were better off in 2018-2019 than they are now. Plus, we have no idea how the new CBA will change things. It could close the competitive window faster, and I doubt it will be better for the teams. Players are going to get changes to team control and pay to some degree or another. So spending 30 million for 10 years on one player could have an even worse effect on a roster than it currently does if pre arb and arb salaries go up.
     
  13. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    47,911
    Likes Received:
    14,150
    I’m a firm believer that any team can get out of a contract if the team is no longer competitive.

    I also don’t see Correa going to a team that isn’t going to automatically be in the thick of the pennant race or a team that would trade him to a bigger market as soon as they couldn’t afford him. (Why I don’t think Miami will happen).

    Both sides seeing where they are after a full season (and post season) was always the plan. There was never going to be an 8-10 year deal prior.
     
    Htown Stros likes this.
  14. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2012
    Messages:
    10,270
    Likes Received:
    5,445
    Let’s just win the whole Fkn thing again and see what happens
     
  15. HTXSportsAddict

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2021
    Messages:
    285
    Likes Received:
    559
     
    everyday eddie, desihooper and King1 like this.
  16. Yordan The Great

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2019
    Messages:
    4,265
    Likes Received:
    5,876
    So what about this Pena kid?

    I'm pretty stoked to see him next spring.
     
    jim1961 likes this.
  17. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    47,911
    Likes Received:
    14,150
    If they don't sign Correa, and they don't spend money elsewhere, he will be groomed to eventually take over

    Need to keep in mind that he is 24 years old... or basically older than Correa was when he won his first WS.
     
    Wulaw Horn likes this.
  18. asianballa23

    asianballa23 Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2003
    Messages:
    3,215
    Likes Received:
    624
    you think CC will give Astros a hometown discount just by winning the whole thing? He's got a freaking family to feed man
     
  19. Elienator

    Elienator Member

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 1999
    Messages:
    1,379
    Likes Received:
    1,180
    I took the comment more about Crane would spend.
     
  20. homewight

    homewight Contributing Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2005
    Messages:
    463
    Likes Received:
    445
    Correa's won more than one WS?
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now