He’s actually never done a 5 year deal either… but he did offer a 6 to both Correa and Kuechel previously (or was that a 5).
Um....lol. This year, sure. Historically, No. Depends on the metric. Lindor best HR year: 38, Correa - 24. There are many others: https://mlbcomparisons.com/francisco-lindor-vs-carlos-correa-comparison/ https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lindofr01.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correca01.shtmll Neither one deservers a 10+ year, $300 million contract.
You're the one who began by flatly saying Lindor had better career numbers. Now you're saying "depends on the metric". And the best you could come up with was "most home runs in a season"??? Correa has better career OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, WAR, WPA, and many other statistics much more advanced than "most homers". He's a better defender, and a year younger. I'm not advocating for anyone to get that much money in a contract, but your claim that Lindor has "better career numbers" has no real basis in reality. Even numbers that are counting stats, like WAR, are in Correa's favor, despite having played fewer games. (And none of this is taking into account Correa's leadership or incredible postseason success).
Correa has played 150 less games because of injury. Affects percentage numbers. And that is the rub. Availability. Correa has yet to prove he can stay healthy....consistently. ABs, Plate Appearances, BA, HRs, Runs, Stolen Bases, Total bases, X-base hits, Base Hits, Doubles, Triples, Runs Created are better for Lindor. Metrics can be shaded whatever you want. Correa is not worth the money, neither is Lindor. Leadership is not worth 10 years, $300 million.
He was healthy last year and he’s played more games than anyone else on the team this year. “Proving it” doesn’t have a set meaning to everyone but he’s certainly on the right track. I don’t think he should get a 10 year deal but I’d certainly take him over Lindor.
Correa’s back never required surgery, was not structural/degenerative, and was deemed to be overuse issues without proper stretching/strengthening. Those are the issues that can be stabilized. Bregman has had 2 years of hamstring problems. Springer has hurt all sorts of stuff this year. Guys go through stretches where they get hurt, especially if they’re very aggressive in their physicality. One could debate and make an argument that no player is worth 10 years/$300 million… but we are not the ones who decide what teams choose to pay certain players. The players that do deserve the most money are likely the ones on the pre-arbitration years, in their ultimate primes in both athleticism and health, yet they get paid the least.
It's the 2017-2019 period where Correa missed significant time. He's been healthy the last two years and has played more games than Lindor during that time. I get the lack of enthusiasm for signing players (in general) to big, long-term contracts. And Correa's missed significant time in 2017 (thumb), 2018 (back), and 2019 ("massage" rib fracture). That may scare some teams off. But only the back condition is one that's the type that speaks to a possible long-term condition, and I suspect there are teams that believe that 3 years free of back problems is enough data for them to take a chance. There's no doubt that a healthy Correa has been better than a healthy Lindor for his career (and Correa's always been available in the playoffs). I'm not arguing with you about 10 years, $300m. But Correa's going to get (and deserve) a nine figure deal that starts with the number two. Hopefully it's the Astros that provide it.
On the sentiment side .... if we re-sign correa, there would eventually be statues of Altuve and Correa outside minute maid (and Bregs), just like Biggio and Bagwell. How do you put a price tag on that? And if you do, only Crane can say how much that is worth to him. I think it's gotta be a factor. Even to me as a fan, it's a factor and I'm now wanting to shell out 8 years to get correa. not sure if it will get him, but we gotta try.
If Correa leaves, are y'all comfortable with Pena breaking camp with the team? Or do we maybe put Aledmys at SS to begin the season while Pena gets more seasoning in AAA? Of course not ideal since Aledmys is pretty shaky defensively at SS, but I don't want to rush Pena either.
If Correa walks there's virtually no way the Astros don't make a significant offensive upgrade at C or SS. No chance Pena breaks camp with the team unless there's a major change in the current arbitration structure. They will almost assuredly sign a SS one way or the other to go with Diaz, even if they do think Pena will be the SS by years end.
I agree with this statement. Lindor is a good player, sure he's having a bad year, but chances are he will bounce back next season fine - Bottom line is that the Mets overpaid for Lindor (I get it, that was the market that Lindor's agent set up). However, peak Correa is projected a lot better than peak Lindor. With that said, I would be hesitant to give Correa 10 years 300 million.
I tend to agree. Nobody at this time regrets the Astros forking over a paycheck to Biggio when he was well past his prime, chasing stats, or paying Bagwell big money when he couldn’t throw (“why can’t he throw left handed?”). Berkman was on that track as well, but the team because so bad (so fast)… maybe in part due to spending on Biggio/Bagwell… but also cheapening out on the farm system and international scouting. Berkman had to be traded within the midst of his big contract. Correa could face the same fate with a long-term deal (no matter who he signs with). I say so be it, lets roll the dice with the current core as much as possible. This is the GOLDEN ERA of Astros baseball. There may never again be a 6-8 year stretch like this that we have all witnessed here. They certainly won’t bottom out when they let a piece go every year till 3 years from now where they’re all gone (minus Tucker/Alvarez).
He doesn't? For an anchor organization changing player to be the foundational core to building a team that goes to MULTPILE World Series, win one, almost win a 2nd and contend strongly year after year? That's going to generate at least 5 times as much money as his contract for the team owner? That's not worth the contract? You have a shallow proud understanding, too bad too many idiot gm's use similar logic like you're using.
So I get the hesitation with 10 year deals, but is there any way to mitigate the regression? Say he puts together 5 more very good to elite defensive years at SS, Bregman may gone by then at 3B, does Correa hit enough to justify $30M at 3B? Maybe the ages and contracts for Bregman and Altuve line up so that Altuve signs for much less in 2025 at age 35 for 2-3 more years, then after he retires or resigns in his age 38 season, you have Bregman and Altuve split between DH/2B and Correa over to 3B when Bregman is 34 and Correa is 33 (assuming Bregman is also resigned in 2025)?
IT's not about Correa being good enough at 33 or 35 to justify paying him 30 million. That's where everyone gets it wrong. It's about his production from 27-31 being worth 50 or 60 million a year while they are totally and completely in their winning world series windows, and the back half of the contract when he's a lesser player pays him what he would be underpaid for the next 4 or 5 years. That's why you couldn't sign him for 5/150. If you want to cap it at 5 for his absolute prime you have to pay him 200-225 I'd think. Look at Bauer as an example- when he took what was basically a 2 year deal in his prime he got 42 million a year. This isn't all that hard. It's not like anyone projects he's going to be worth 30 million every year for the next 10 years. He will be worth more, then he will be worth less and at the end of the day the astros will probably have positive value on a $10,000,000 per War basis that's the going rate. Plus- it's a lot more valuable to consolidate War in 1 position than to get it in a combination of 3 guys. A 6 war SS is so much more valuable than 3 players that are all 2 WAR. It's scarce. The 2 WAR player isn't.
I'm a CPA and worked many years at a big 4 firm where I travelled out of state so I've experienced that oddity (paying state taxes in other states I performed work), but yeah most people assume it's a 100% dollar for dollar savings. And to be fair TX being one of the highest in property taxes probably takes a further cut into those "savings" dent You can GUARANTEE a 33 year old Correa will be hurt? Dear Ms. Cleo...I would like the winning lotto numbers for tomorrow? Thanks!
Nothing is guaranteed, but increased likelihood seems reasonable. And thanks for confirming the tax silliness. Of course, many other MLB cities not only have State Income Taxes, but local Income Taxes as well. I once worked in a different county while living outside a city and still got taxed by another city because that's where the checks were cut for an out of State Employer. There is no logic when people want YOUR money. Had to file Fed, 2 states, 2 Counties and 2 cities. I didn't have to pay in all, but they were all after the same paycheck.
This often quoted stat is flawed. You don't compute a mean when your distribution is skewed. A median would be much more informative for interpreting "good value"
