ShamesBomb: John Wall on his way to leave…?!

We are closer to bedrock than playoffs. We still need to acquire assets and get more cap flexible if we are going to go anywhere…..

We aren’t going for high drafts picks solely because we hope we draft a superstar but also so we get assets to trade for one.

 

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aH...Ewjy6Nms243zAhUqlWoFHRHBDGEQjrkEegQIAhAF&ep=6

Latest Dunc’d On podcast goes over their over/under predictions for the season and talk a little about each team.

Just two guys opinions. But I find them to be pretty well informed and for the most part follow pretty sound logic. And what they talked about seems to fall in line with the discussion in this thread.

Rockets start @ 1:11:56

* Both pick UNDER 25.5
One guy said prior to John Wall news he debated the over but the news coming out has swayed him to under. Other guy said John Wall news didn’t make a difference. Was going under with or without Wall.

* Both found it likely we will be one of the worst offenses and defenses. They seemed confident about our defense being really, really bad. Also that OKC and Houston will very likely be the 2 worst teams.

* Talked about owning our picks the next two years and how it appears obvious we are trying to be a bad(developing) team to maximize those picks. Talked about how the majority of our rotation minutes are going to be rookies and really young players. A recipe for losing games.

* Eric Gordon was mentioned as someone they will try to rehab his value and move. Also noted they would not be surprised if House, Theis and Wood are eventually traded.

 

Yikes, where to even begin. Guess we have to dismantle this one by one.

Christian Wood is not close to being an all star.

He has never been selected to an all star team, and he has never been close to being on an all star team.

He is an above average big on a good contract entering his prime who will soon be moving into overpaid status. IE, his contract is about to go from highly positive to highly negative. The time to cash in is now.

Sengun, JC and Garuba are whatever. We can hope they are serviceable NBA players, but whoever thinks we have some untouchable core going forward after 5 summer league games is delusional. Green is promising, and KPJ may or may not pan out. This is not a group you want to go all in on, because they have a low chance of being good enough.

Losing is going to happen no matter what. These are young players and they will be awful. It is going to take them 3-4 years to MAYBE turn into good players. This team will not make the playoffs this year and will not make the playoffs the year after either. If you think there is a difference in culture between a 15 win team and a 25 win team, you are sorely mistaken. The only difference is going to be your pick selection, and that is what actually matters.

No, not forever. 2 years, while we control our picks and have huge dead money on our books. Frankly the timeline couldn't be more clear.

Oh you just want to sign a bunch of star players in free agency. That's your plan huh? Why didn't I think of that? Someone tell Stone to just sign Anthony Davis and Giannis in free agency.

Jalen Green is under the Rockets control for 4 years before entering RESTRICTED FREE AGENCY. We have a minimum of seven years of control over Green. You want to keep Green and make this a successful rebuild, take the limited time you have now to collect great pieces to build around. Rushing a rebuild by making stupid short term decisions is throwing a gift right into the trash can.

 

There is no hurry to move Wood. Let him play and see if he is someone we want to extend. I don’t think he is a Max player, but he is our best player and still young. Maybe he waits for free agency or maybe he will take an extension if we think he is worth it. We need at least half this season to figure out his worth. The rest of the teams are probably thinking the same thing and won’t offer the world for him until he proves it over an extended period of time.

 

Have no clue on this guy's credibility -

 

Dammit

 

Imagine trying to trade Simmons for Harden a year ago only to end up with John Wall.

Don't believe Morey is this stupid/desperate.

 

My gut instinct is to shout NOOOOOOOOO!

However, if it costs little more than Wall + 1 FRP, then it would be a risk worth considering… Would definitely not want to give up any of Wood/KPJ/Sengun/Green or the later Nets picks.

 

If all it takes was Wall and a 1st then that's the :



to end all Stunners.

 

The only way I could see this happening -- purely hypothetically, because I don't buy it -- is (1) we forfeit a lot of draft capital (like 3 FRPs) or (2) we include Wood. Wood and Wall for Simmons and Harris technically works, but again, I just don't see it.

 

Wouldn't Simmons just sit out here as well? He's not reporting to Sixers why would he report here.

 

I agree with you general point. The reason why the 21st century NBA top picks don't win with their original teams is because of star players movement. These top players still generally have better chances to be star players than those lower picks. But they don't stick to the teams that drafted them. Call it player empowerment or whatever.

Teams that tank have to do two things to be able to win with their drafts:
1. Pick a generational player (or at least a franchise level player) with a high pick. That requires a lot of luck. You need to be lucky in the lottery draws. And choosing the right player is not an exact science, not to mention the quality of the draft class you happen to have a high pick is not in your control.
2. If you are lucky enough to do #1, you must build a championship contender by the time this franchise player's rookie contract expires so that the guy won't jump ship. This is a tall task for any team, but especially difficult for small market teams. If you are not in an attractive location, it's hard to get FA star level player, and the franchise player will have less patience to wait for the team to be built.

The difference between this century and last century is #2. Today's superstars don't stick around unless you coddle them and quickly build a contending team around them.

That said, if you can do #1, you still get values. This is where your analysis has missed. Not getting to win with your draft picks doesn't mean you don't get values from them. When your franchise guy forces his way out, you still get a haul of assets by trading him. In the process, maybe you can get a young star picked by some other team that may turn into your franchise player. Or if you have enough good picks, you can simply trade them for good to great players instead of using them to draft players for yourself.

In short, tanking still gives you valuable assets to build your team, even though the players you draft with high picks do not eventually win a championship on your team.

 

Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Chances of getting Chet, Banchero are slim to nothing.

I would have taken those Vegas odds and won. They didn't factor in everything.
To assume injuries just makes an a## out of you and me (ass-u-me)

 

I didn't read beyond your first ignorant statement about Christian Wood.

First 17 games of the season:
22 points...10.2 rebs...0.9 stls...1.5 blks....55.8% (FG%)....42.1% (3P%)....4.5 (3PA)
In 31.2 mins per game.

CF's we're talking in threads about Wood being or should be selected to the All Star game

Then the Rockets shut him down for the sake of tanking from 2-6-21 thru 3-17-21.
Something like 6 weeks and 17 games for an ankle sprain that takes two
weeks to recover from.

Keep thinking you know something about basketball....I say you don't know squat.

Here talks about Wood being considered for All Star game and Olympics
https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/20...njury-to-christian-wood-not-as-bad-as-feared/

 

That's an interesting idea. Rockets could also add Eric Gordon (a Morey favorite), and would balance longterm money. Wood/Embiid would be a new twin towers strategy with more mobility.

I wouldn't hate the idea of someone like Simmons at the 4, with a Green/KPJ backcourt, and see if Sengun/Garuba/Theis can get you there at the 5... but it all depends on how much you want to tank 2022.

 

I agree. Wood had a very legitimate case to be considered/selected as an All-Star reserve until he sprained his ankle. The Rockets were still hovering around .500 at the time before the epic 20+ losing streak started so I think if he didn't go down with that injury he could have made a case head of Conley, who replaced, Booker, who was selected to replace AD, who got injured.

 

He missed 4 games prior to the injury. What do you want the All Star team to be selected off
of? Previous years? His last game was Feb 4th....the All Star game was March 7th. You do the math!!!!

We agree that we disagree (and that you don't know jack-diddily about basketball)

 

A year ago Simmons wasn’t forcing his hand.