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What will it take to make you seriously consider an EV?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by jiggyfly, Mar 31, 2021.

  1. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Almost every oem has said they will go all electric by 2030. Words are cheap, you have to look at action. Most are moving exactly in lock step with emissions standards. VW is one of the only ones genuinely pushing EVs. Mercedes is one of the worst laggers, and one of the many I would bet are not going to be around anymore in 10 years.

    Forcing Tesla to open up has a great chance of backfiring. Your charge rate is dependent on battery size and cooling system, most other EVs cannot take 300kw even if offered. That means they will drive to a Tesla supercharger, pay Tesla money to charge at a trickle, meanwhile watch Teslas go in and out in 10 minutes taking in 500 miles/hour. Sounds like great advertising that will steals customers from Tesla’s competitors. Like, I go and buy a Mercedes eqc but have to go to a Tesla supercharger for any drive over 100 miles, how does that sound to a customer? I really don’t think they thought this through when pushing for this.
     
  2. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Do you disagree?

    I just love hearing from people who had no idea, or were dead wrong 5 years ago about where the industry would be today, tell me where the industry is going in 5 years from now like they are experts. (Not referring to you)

    meanwhile someone who was 100% right about it, “y’all got him going now…”
     
  3. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    I saw a Porsche Taycan (800v system) charging at 350kw near Columbus/La Grange on Electrify America.
    Once mainstream manufacturers put out more EVs, charging networks will get better.

    Charging curve matters more. Audi's can charge at 150kw till 80% which means you can sometimes end up at the same time of charge to get to 80% vs. cars boasting HIGH charging rates.

    Your average joe will stick to brands that have a dealership network. So if the only way EV adoption is going to go up is by everyone buying teslas....then we are screwed.

    And if your idea of everyone buying tesla is THE WAY.......then we are going to need a TON more superchargers no?
     
  4. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    I think I explained this in a post before already, EV adoption can not depend on only Tesla, car market is 100m units a year, no one carmaker can fill that. Historically oems peak at 10% market share. Industry is about to get disrupted so maybe that goes up to 20% but no more, leaving 80% for others.

    However what I have said is that currently many of the offerings are uncompetitive. The other EVs are uncompetitive. The other charging networks are uncompetitive. People in here are pretending like it is otherwise eating up whatever publication they read it from that was paid for by gm and Ford, meanwhile Tesla keeps chugging along with record numbers quarter after quarter.

    Competition needs to come for EV adoption to really take off. It’s hasn’t though, which is why we are sitting at 3% EV marketshare.
     
    Space Ghost likes this.
  5. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    You're a fake fan boi. A real fan boi expects Tesla to consume the market nearly 90%.
     
  6. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    But fanbois for the one company that has cars on the road keeps *****ing on the other cars.
    Whether they are the best or not, people should be encouraging and supportive of the new models.

    Oh mach-e is crap. oh bolt is crap. oh electrify america is crap.

    Then enjoy your EV elite status and let the rest of the people pollute the earth.
     
  7. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    The Mach e and id.4 are great steps towards easing people’s minds and showing them every oem is headed this way one day, eventually. This is the future of the industry. I applaud that and it is beneficial to the industry.

    However, objectively, for price, performance, features, they are uncompetitive with Tesla. The OP of this thread, who turned out to be a troll quoting shortseller talking points, assured me that the Mach e was going to eat Teslas lunch in the US market. The Mach e sold 1400 units in August! This is what I was responding to in this thread. Like, great first effort by oems and great for the industry, but Mach e the Tesla killer? lol.

    You can say Tesla’s demise has been greatly exaggerated. It will remain the top dog for many years and one of the biggest companies in the world soon.

    Also the Bolt is actually crap. And dangerous. The fud around that is a major setback for EV adoption.
     
  8. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    Serious question, fanboism aside.

    Should we as a society accept lackluster products?

    I have a broader issue. The misunderstanding of what the EV revolution is birthing. Most of the other manufactures are simply dropping an ICE chassis on an EV. If we use the horse/automobile analogy, we need to accept most people do not care about horses outside of the equestrian community. It seems the elder generation is more concerned about how a car looks than its functionality. We are headed down a path where a vehicle is more of a tool than a status icon.

    Outside of Tesla, all of the other manufactures are starting to fall behind China. If the iphone was not so much about being a music phone and more about being a palm computer, then we should view EV's as a portable self sustaining robotic machine.

    EV's have been around for a hundred years. There is nothing revolutionary about the mach-e.
     
  9. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    Oh stop. lol. The majority of cars being sold for the past several decades are "tools" as you put it. The majority of people buy for functionality first and luxury/aesthetics second. And most people who drive their cars as "tools" still have a base set of features, conveniences, looks, etc. they want in a car. However, many of those people don't want to pay $40-$50k+ for a car that looks like a Fisher-Price interior when they get inside. There are others that don't want the car to dictate the best route on a road trip because of charging locations as someone previously mentioned because... it's a road trip; time to go to random places, using random routes, etc. For some those things are sacrificing aesthetics/convenience for technology and aren't worth it. For others, they'd rather have the tech. Somewhere there's a middle ground and we haven't hit it yet -- at least not where price intersects it where the majority of people can afford it. Porsche and Mercedes electric car interiors are subjectively looking nice, but again... they charge an arm and a leg for it. They aren't worth it to me, either.

    Also, if I recall correctly, the average age of a Model 3 buyer a couple of years ago was something like 45-50 years old (?). I'm guessing that may be lower now, but I'm not sure. The average age of the Model X and S buyers were higher back then, but that has to do with their prices, I'm sure.
    Many people are just waiting for that moment where price intersects with whatever they're looking for in a car. It's just like how the term "entry luxury" came about so people can buy a $30k-$40k car to think they were driving a luxury car. Like I said before, most all cars sold are driven as tools and as such, cost a lot less than $40k. The only people buying cars as "status icons" and actually driving a "status icon" are buying 6-figure and above cars.

    Again - just like most people may not care about luxury tidbits, most people couldn't care less whether they're driving an ICE or electric vehicle as long as their base needs are met without losing convenience or functionality. I don't think the majority of people are trying to save the world with a car purchase. There are others who want to be on the cutting edge of tech or just be among the first to be on the electric bandwagon. Ultimately, I'm guessing 75-80% of car purchasers just want a vehicle that fits their needs and most can't afford an electric (or want to pay for one). If it ran on water, sunshine, dirt, chicken fat... doesn't matter to them.

    This decision is more complex than simply buying into the future, the past, or an iconic vehicle for the vast majority of people. Once they're given the opportunity via price and features, I'm sure electric will become more popular. We're getting there slowly but surely.
     
  10. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    an EV truck in Europe just went nearly 700 miles on a single charge:

    https://insideevs.com/news/532291/electric-truck-guinness-record-range/

    excerpt:

    One fully-electric delivery truck operated by German delivery company DPD, with the help of automotive giant Continental, just set the world record for the longest distance traveled on one charge. It was driven for no less than 1,099 kilometers or 682.88 miles around a closed test track, it took 23 hours and two drivers switching in 4.5 hour shifts; the average speed was 50 km/h (31 mph).

    So what is the answer to the question regarding the feasibility of having long range electric trucks that actually make sense? The answer, of course, is to stuff them full of batteries, in this case no less than 680 kWh-worth of lithium-ion cells that are actually sourced from BMW (usable pack capacity is 578 kWh).

    The company that made the truck is from Switzerland and it’s called Futuricum and it specializes in creating fully-electric trucks based on Volvo truck chassis, as well as EV chargers and battery packs. On its official website, it says that the maximum possible range that its trucks can achieve is 760 km (472 miles), but the record-breaking Futuricum Logistics 18E truck far exceeded that estimate.
    more at the link
     
  11. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    Cool, but I'm guessing this is unloaded and under some rigged conditions if they're trying to break a record. I could be wrong. But ... Futuricum? Damn.
     
  12. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    yes, unloaded, on a test track, special tires, etc etc. But impressive.
     
  13. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    +1

    We are not anywhere close to having full adoption of EV. In our new work garage, they put in five 120v outlets in the parking spots dedicated for EV cars. .....in a 5 level parking garage. Not even a few level 2 chargers. I guess I can plug in my phone and call for help using those outlets...lol
     
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  14. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    agree that the masses couldn’t care less if it was gas, electric or water. Price, convenience, features, performance (yes this matters, that’s why price correlates with it), total cost of ownership etc etc

    however this is also precisely why Teslas have broken into the mainstream. The average new car before the pandemic was $35k. Now it’s above $40k(albeit under some circumstances) The model 3 started at $37k, with an off menu option at $35k, exactly the national average for new cars. Now it’s had to hike the price along with everyone else, starting at $40k, again at the average. The idea that most people can’t afford them is not true. When you factor in total cost of ownership with gas savings and savings on service, better tech, better performance than anything in its price range, that’s why it sells so much DESPITE being electric (not BECAUSE). Once the $7500-10k tax credit gets passed the model 3 is going to start at $30k. The next model Tesla is developing is going to start at $25k, if that qualifies for the tax credit (not needed) it will be $15k.

    Tesla is driving down the cost curve like flatscreen TVs a few years ago, and dragging the industry, suppliers and consumers for that matter, kicking and screaming with it. Gas is going to be obsolete once we hit that price whether governments want to mandate or not, whether oems want to give lip service or not(whether they want to survive or not), none of that will matter. It will just be economics.
     
  15. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Stuffing batteries in a ICE chassis is exactly what the F150 Lightning is doing, they aren’t doing anything innovative with it, just brute forcing it to achieve an acceptable range with as much batteries as they can.

    the reason why you need to design an ev from the ground up is because the economics of the Lightning, stuffing batteries inefficiently, is going to be cost prohibitive for it to ever be produced at a profit to sell at an affordable price. This is why I laugh when people say this will be the gamechanger. They will never sell it at volume because it will never be profitable. They will charge high enough to price most people out. Market that they have an EV of their own(“Leader in EV”), generate some emissions credits, and for the rest of the shortfall just buy from Tesla like GM does.
     
  16. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    The average price for a new car of $40k is too inclusive. You're including Teslas, BMWs, Audis, Mercedes, Acura, Infiniti, etc. and overpriced giant pickups, luxury SUVs, etc. For example, the average Honda sale was probably less than $30k a few months ago, the average Hyundai, Mazda, Kia, etc. was around $30k and that figure includes loaded models of those brands as well as large SUVs. You can go buy the lowest-spec'ed Accord or Camry for $25k list and before the pandemic could probably shave a few thousand off that with standard negotiations. Cars like a Corolla would be even $5k less. If you're right and they start pricing Teslas around that price ($30k and less).

    What I'm saying is the average person isn't buying a $40k new car -- that just happens to be the average price of new cars being sold. So if 3 people buy a $28k car and one buys a $76k car, the average price of those purchases is $40k, but 3 out of 4 people ain't buying a $40k car. I don't know what the breakdown actually is, to be honest, but you get my drift. lol. Toyota used to sell 300,000-400,000 Camrys alone each year before the pandemic. If Tesla can reach to those customers and those prices, then they'll drag other companies (or wreck them) probably. Either that or the price of current electrics just have to come down naturally and the charging network has to be more ubiquitous. I think both will obviously happen eventually, though.

    The issue with electric taking over now isn't people buying into the tech because, like I said, and you seem to agree, most people don't care how it goes as long as it does, it's that it needs to do what they want it to do and it needs to be affordable for various segments of buyers.
     
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  17. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    good deep dive into what VW is doing.
    https://www.audi.com/content/dam/gb...tations/2021/2021-07-07-UBS-PPE-deep-dive.pdf
     
  18. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Without reading any of that, I can say that VW has built an ev platform from the ground up. Like I said they are one of the few oems that is genuinely pushing, albeit only because they have to after the emissions scandal. If I were to bet, the winners in the long run, besides Tesla, is VW in Europe, BYD and some of the smaller names in China due to full government backing (they are dead set on winning this time around after missing out the last 100 years on any auto manufacturing), Hyundai in SK, and Rivian in the US(after crashing from ridiculous IPO valuation). The Japanese players are a real mystery, obviously they will not all go bankrupt due to national security reasons, but their idiotic government pushed and mandated hydrogen so they are all caught flat footed and way behind in the EV race. Toyota just recently flipped around and is now investing $13b in EVs the next few years, even though their chairman called EVs a fad not long ago, could be too little too late.

    That’s my best guess for winners in the long run. But like I said right now no one is really competitive with Tesla. Aapl could be another contender just from their sheer capital base and brand value. But I am beyond skeptical about that. After years of development they only spat and chewed through different dudes to lead the project, now they have the AirPod guy to do it as if that’s at all relevant to building a car? Aapl hasn’t successfully built a new product since Jobs passed besides the AirPod (I guess that’s why he got the job) despite how much money they have.
     
    #298 CXbby, Sep 10, 2021
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2021
  19. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    You are calling the race when it's only 3% done.
    A lot can happen in the next 10-15 years.
     
    Os Trigonum likes this.
  20. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    I literally make a living doing that. Predict the future. Not saying I am guaranteed to be right, but I’m putting my money where my mouth is.

    (also particular in this industry there’s extremely long lead times, half decade long development cycles, so not that hard to look out in the future based on what’s already in development today)

    There are some notable exceptions, MySpace, Yahoo!, (both of those in the highly volatile Wild West internet infancy), but for the most part, the guys who invent the segment/field/industry, end up dominating it. Countless examples. Many reasons why, not the least of which the Innovator’s Dilemma, which the auto industry is about to come to grips with, which is why it is so predictable. (And profitable to bet on)
     
    #300 CXbby, Sep 10, 2021
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2021

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