Every batter gets fooled sometimes. Even Barry Bonds, who got crazy amount of walks even before the steroids, chased some pitches. I've analyzed a lot of his at bats from the MLB gameday app, and he mostly swings at good pitches. He's still not good at hitting curveballs but phenomenal at hitting fastballs. In the last few games, he's starting to show that can make contact with a changeup. I'm very optimistic about him. I still think he is better at identifying pitches to swing at that Alvarez, though he isn't as good of a hitter overall. Alvarez can hit homeruns on golfswings by his ankles.
I am high on Meyers too for what it is worth. I think that he can be a good hitter, and couple that with his glove and speed and enough power... and you have a very useful and valuable player. He has improved a lot the last few years at his approach to stay within his hitting zone. My criticism of him against Anderson was more a confirmation that his approach against off speed pitching is what it appeared to be and what a scout had told me. The reality with his approach is that it will in most cases force pitchers to throw his fastballs and that results in positive things for Meyers. I don't see him ever being an elite hitter in the sense that he isn't going to win a batting title with his issues against good off speed pitching. However he can still be a good hitter, and have a career like AJ Pollock or Eric Byrnes (when healthy) or possibly even a little better if he hits with a little more power. His glove is very good. We don't know if he is going to be Gold Glove elite good, but we know that it is well above average at least.... and while his arm hasn't been on full display yet, the Astros swear his arm is good as well. We know that his speed is also well above average at a minimum...... you add all that together and you have a player with a very high WAR. If he can learn to walk more, he can become an all star level player.... because few players have all the tools that Meyers has.
I agree with all of these things. He being a college pitcher should say good things about his arm. Also, interesting that he's a left handed thrower but right handed hitter. I don't expect him to be Springer, but I think he will be good enough at CF that we will never feel the need to upgrade the position. I'm okay with Meyers and Tucker with whomever hired gun we can find to play the third outfield position after Brantley decides to leave.
Meyers chasing has not been some infrequent event. His 1st K yesterday was setup by him chasing would be balls 3 and 4. His 2nd K was swinging at ball 4. 3rd K was strike 3 on chasing a nasty pitch though ump did get Meyers in the hole on this AB by calling ball 2 a strike.
It’s the dreaded adjustment phase. Meyers proved he can hit the MLB fastball, so obviously the word is out by now (scouting reports probably say set him up with fastballs outside the zone, punch him out with curve & change-up’s balls for strike. Hitting a fastball is no small feat…. But now the off speed pitches are going to be a constant diet for Myers! Here is to hoping he can recognize pitches more easily, especially when the off speed stuff will be prominently on display during his at bats.
His strikeout percentage is not sustainable, it is at nearly 35% and his walk percentage also is not sustainable as it is at like 3%. Now, he doesn't have to radically change his strikeout ratio, he can survive and be effective with a strikeout rate of even 25% as long as he is getting extra base hits and playing a strong centerfield. Everyone points to his BABIP, but he has had a strong BABIP in the minors after the adjustments. When he makes contact, he hits the ball very very hard and he has plus speed so he can get a BABIP quite high (which is good if he is going to strikeout 25-33% of the time). Let's see if he can start getting the walks to creep up and the strikeouts to creep down as he gets more familiar with major league pitching. I am optimistic because he has shown the ability to make adjustments and his margin for error is larger than most because of his position, speed and extra base power..... players with that profile can still have a high WAR even with obvious warts in their offensive production.
Who would you guys say has a better overall approach to his ABs? Alvarez or Meyers? After watching both of them extensively, I kind of feel like they have similar approaches, and are both susceptible to the down and away pitches.
The scouts knew he was a fastball hitter since he was called up. That information was sent to the coaches and pitchers from the AAA scouts... and they had data on it. So there will be some changes in how he is approached by pitchers, but it isn't like they were oblivious. A lot of it is going to be Meyers getting himself into a position to force the pitcher to throw fastballs.... that will be getting the count in his favor, fending off off speed stuff in the zone and not swinging at stuff outside the zone that is off speed. The Astros can also help him in the same way they helped Springer, move him into a spot in the order where pitchers will want to throw him strikes. Honestly, Alvarez sometimes decides he will not swing at a pitch before it is even thrown depending on the count and who the pitcher is. In general I do not like this approach but Alvarez has overall been quite successful so I cannot be too critical. Alvarez in general is susceptible to pitches low in the zone, but part of that is that he can also hit those same pitches out of the ball park so he is big game hunting. I think that Meyers needs to tighten up his approach, but I don't have a problem with it. He has good bat speed and crushes fastballs. He struggles against off speed pitches with movement, but he tries to down play that by sticking to his zone approach. He also doesn't have to have the same type of OBP% that someone like Alvarez has to have. Meyers contributes with his glove, position and speed and his power is positive for the position he plays.... he also doesn't have the wrist power that Alvarez has, so he has to find ways to limit his short comings and that is what his approach does.... it will be tweaked but I think his approach is overall quite good.
If he can get his K rate down to 25% and his walk rate up, he will likely be a very good hitter. I expect he will run an above average BABIP (a ton of hard contact plus speed), but a good 20% of his BABIP right now are pop up hits, ricochets off the pitcher, and a 70 mph batted ball right at Hosmer that was ruled a hit due to being too hot to handle.
It is too early to make a determination on how high his BABIP will be in the big leagues long term. He has a BABIP right now of around .425% the last I checked. His BABIP in AAA was close to .400%, which makes sense because he has a high hard hit ball % and he is fast. He has over 100 at bats at this point, we are getting close to the point of ruling out fluke hits largely impacting his numbers. It will come down to adjustments by pitchers and whether Myers is able to counter them if they are effective. I do believe a 25% strike out rate is obtainable from watching him hit, and I do believe his OB% will creep up - but it may come at the cost of a little of his power... so I will be curious to see how the Astros and Meyers approach it.
My guesses for Meyers stats over the next 3-5 seasons: BB 7% K 28% ISO .180 BABIP .360 AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS .260/.360/.460/.820 wRC+ 115 With his defense I expect his fwar will oscillate between 2.5 and 4 assuming he stays healthy.
Jesse Burkett was the last player with a 0.425 BABIP. He did it back in '95. That is 1895. I'm very comfortable in thinking Meyers is not the best BABIP guy in the last 125 years.
So do you agree that everyone is right that points to the BABIP and think it is unsustainable? Your posts imply that you don't think Meyers is in for a lot of regression in BABIP. Even a 20% regression would still easily put him in the 99th Percentile in BABIP over the last 10 years.
I think that he is due for a regression, but I also believe that he will be near the top of the league in BABIP based on his profile and his numbers over his last 400 at bats between AAA and the majors, where his cumulative OBP is over .400%. My point was that he has certain built in advantages in his game that give him a larger margin for error than most players.... the fact that he is fast, that he hits the ball hard, that he plays a demanding position (and plays it well), that he is likely to have a high BABIP and has some degree of power.... all of these together give him a lot more latitude with his bat than other players.... he can realistically somewhat struggle with the bat and still have a high WAR. As a side note, long term I do think that he will cut down his strikeouts and walk more... which will help off set some of the inflated BABIP.
