I think that this is the off season where we find out how good Click is at making trades and signing free agents. There are going to be major changes to the Astros next season in the rotation and the pen and at SS. Click is not going to be able to sit back and count on all those holes being plugged internally like he has for the most part so far. The Astros have to decide if they want Verlander back, will they offer him the QO? Do the Astros even make an effort to resign Graveman? He has been very good this year, but there are risks involved in doing that. Can the Astros get an internal option? Do the Astros wait until the deadline again and make a deal for a reliever at the deadline? Correa is gone, so do they go after someone like Baez or Story at a smaller number? Both are good players but are up and down. Would the Astros be better served spending that money elsewhere and signing a cheaper veteran and letting one of their younger guys get used to playing there? My concern is that the moves made so far by Click have been mediocre.... where he HAS shined has been not panicking and getting production out of the farm system. How long does that continue? There are a lot of question marks...... In the rotation..... Verlander, Greinke and Odorizzi all could be gone In the bullpen.... Graveman, Garcia.... did the Pressly option vest?.... In the line up...... Who plays SS? Can we afford to have someone like Maldonado in the line up with the step down in offense from the SS position? How do the Astros deal with these spots? Trade? High number one or two year deals? Do they go and sign someone long term? Do the Astros maybe go and try to trade for Contreras from the Cubs and hope to resign him ? Do they go for basically a rental of Contreras (who has quietly been the best defensive catcher in baseball this year) and say the prospect cost is worth it because it extends the window another year?
If the farm system is above average, there shouldn't be anything to worry about. This team doesn't have many holes, and I doubt the Astros pitchers on the 40-man are in bad of health to start next season as they were this season. I'm hoping Click doesn't try to spread the money around too much, and focuses on one great player with half of the budget (preferably an ace).
I agree with this. Houston’s holes are few but big. Losing Correa is huge. Not having an elite SP is huge. Not having any established late inning arms after Pressly is big. But the other 20-23 spots on the roster are set with very good options (of course if Castro’s knee injury is serious then catcher becomes another significant hole). There should be plenty of money to sign at least 2 very good free agents. And there should be enough farm depth to trade for 1-2 decent players. So far it looks like the market is setting up well for Houston, as there are a lot of good options at their highest need areas (SS and pitching).
Astros get: SP Luis Castillo C Tucker Barnhart IF Eugenio Suarez Reds get: RHP Hunter Brown RHP Bryan Abreu OF Colin Barber IF Freudis Nova SP Jake Odorizzi C Jason Castro Astros sign Kendall Graveman $24M/2yr. Resulting 2022 opening day roster: 2B Altuve LF Brantley 1B Gurriel DH Alvarez 3B Bregman RF Tucker CF Meyers SS Diaz C Barnhart Bench: Suarez, Maldonado, McCormick, Jones Rotation: Castillo, Valdez, McCullers, Garcia, Urquidy Bullpen: Pressly, Graveman, Baez, Maton, Javier, Stanek, James, Taylor
The farm system I think is fine, but nothing lasts forever... and at some point, be it from injuries or other causes, we are going to dip in the well and come up dry. It is amazing that we have been so successful filling holes internally the last handful of seasons. As far as this off season...... we are possibly losing 2-3 starting pitchers, we are losing 2 of our 4 best relievers possibly, and we are losing a star shortstop and possibly a catcher. So I think there will be a fair amount of change, or at least potentially change. The Astros could ultimately give Verlander the QO and see what he has left because there are not many potential aces out there.... and I supposed they could just sign the last of that all star group of SS left standing (Semien or Story most likely) and then go with Maldonado but I don't think that Astros team would be as good as this one. I think there will be a lot of ways the Astros could go..... they could decide to go after Contreras (who is very available), they could try to go after someone like Kris Bryant if his market doesn't materialize and then go for a SS like Simmons? There are just a lot of possibilities and not all of these players are going to get the pay day that they want, and the Astros will have some money. I suspect that we will target shorter contracts.
I would like Kris Bryant here. Would be a great addition but where would he play? I can see him in LF after Brantley leaves after next season. He can play 1B, 3B, LF/RF. Don't think Bregs is a long term answer at SS.
I don't think Bregs is a long term solution at SS either, and I know the Astros don't either.... but he may be able to play there for a season, which would allow Bryant to play 3rd and then Bryant could also steal some at bats at the corner outfield spots.... Most likely the long term solution at SS in already in the organization... so I could see a situation where they have Bregs play a season of SS and 3rd..... with Pena getting some at bats at SS when Bregs is at 3rd, and then have Bryant at 3rd and getting at bats when someone in the outfield gets an off day. Bryant isn't bad as a corner outfielder. I like Bryant as well, but it really all comes down to money...... there are a number of players that could help fill the offensive void of Correa..... Bryant, Seager, Story, Baez, Contreras, Semien and Marte come to mind.... it is a matter of being financially and positionally flexible to add one of them if the price is right.
Astros are losing 1 starting pitcher from the team that played in 2021, but they have 5 left on MLB roster. If they lose another, it will be in a trade to get something. Astros are losing their rental ace reliever and another rental reliever, but there will be a trade deadline next year. On the catcher, I'm guessing his knee has been an issue since his Achilles soreness that landed on the IL in May. Considering how poorly he has played since the end of May, I'd guess Paps could replace that production. I'm much more concerned by the age of Gurriel and Brantley than I am about replacing Castro. I would only consider replacing Correa's value a true hole. With the money the Astros have available, that should be doable even with another mediocre offseason. It probably won't be at SS unless they can't get a deal or keep Correa.
Pressly will be back. His option is a team option that had levels based on games pitched. He's already hit the highest level as the option became 10 million when he appeared in 40 games. It becomes a vesting option if he appears in 60 games. He's at 52 right now. So either the Astros pick up his option at 10 million or it vests at 10 million. I would throw the qualifying offer at Verlander and hope he takes it. The top free agent pitchers are going to be Gausman, Gray, DeSclafini, Kershaw, Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodon, Scherzer, Stroman, Syndergaard, and Verlander. Many of them will have a qualifying offer attached. Gausman, Scherzer, and Stroman won't. Scherzer we can probably cross off the list since he wouldn't come here at the deadline. I don't love the idea of paying most of those guys for a number of reasons. Kershaw is hurt every year, Ray and Rodon have been one year wonders and going to get 100 million plus. Syndergaard still hasn't come back from TJ surgery after a setback. Gray isn't a number 1. If I had to target one I think it would be Gausman. He's pitching in the NL West which isn't easy and won't have a qualifying offer. I'd rather roll the dice on Verlander coming back for a year than fork over 100 million to Gausman. I would see if you could swing a deal for Ketel Marte. He's got 3 years left and will only make 30 million those 3 years and the last 2 seasons are team options. Maybe a package built around Javier and Hunter Brown. Marte can handle SS, 2B, and CF. So that gives you some flexibility. Trade Odorizzi. He will likely cost you 12-14 million next season with his very reachable incentives based on innings. I would be willing to eat a couple million if necessary. Then I think you have to sign one of the top relievers available and add some more veteran depth. Either try and bring back Graveman or go get Raisel Iglesias. It's much easier to trade for a 6th inning guy at the deadline than a closer or 8th inning stud. McHugh would probably love to come back. If you can improve catcher than awesome, but they are already committed to nearly 10 million at the position next season so I don't expect it to happen. Altuve 2B Brantley LF Bregman 3B Alvarez DH Gurriel 1B Tucker RF Marte SS Meyers CF Maldonado C Diaz, McCormick, Castro/Papierski, Pena Verlander Framber McCullers Urquidy Garcia Pressly Graveman/Iglesias McHugh Stanek Baez Taylor Maton Dubin/James/Paredes/Scrubb/Emanuel/Abreu/Whitley/Bielak
I agree with you about the aging players being a concern. Eventually it’s going to catch up to this lineup. Maldy, Gurriel, Altuve, and Brantley are all past their prime age, and Bregman and Alvarez have been injury prone. When looking at this roster from that perspective it gets scary to rely on Tucker and Meyers as the only everyday bats without injury or age concerns. Of course having McCormick and Diaz as strong bench players and a relatively deep AAA roster mitigates that risk some, but I think the structure of the roster would make it more important to replace Correa’s offense with a durable, elite bat.
I think Corey Lee will be ready some time next year if they are willing to start the MLB clock on him. I would not waste assets on a catcher as much as I would love having Maldonado as a backup. I think we will sign Graveman and pursue another starter. I would not re-sign Verlander unless its for cheap, which I don’t think he will take. SS is the biggest question mark. Marte would be a great solution, but it might take quite a hit on our Minor League system to get him. It’s not my money, let’s just sign Correa.
Yeah, Bryant would be great on this team. All about the money though. Don't know what the market rate will be for him. Maybe $20-25M AAV/yr? Would like to sign him for $18-20M/yr on 4 yr contract.
Here would be my pecking order for free agent SS with the max I would offer: 1. Carlos Correa $195M/8yr + $25M incentives + 2 team options for $40M ea w/$5M buyout (guarantees him $200M while giving him the chance to max at $300M) 2. Corey Seager $160M/6yr 3. Trevor Story $110M/5yr 4. Marcus Semien $90M/4yr + $10M incentives 5. Chris Taylor $70M/4yr + $10M incentives 6. Javier Baez $36M/2yr 7. Leury Garcia $10M/2yr + $3M incentives 8. Jonathan Villar $11M/2yr + $1M incentives 9. Freddy Galvis $5M/1yr 10. Jose Iglesias $5M/1yr 11. Andrelton Simmons $4M/1yr + $1M incentives The CBA negotiations will have a huge impact on free agent prices but for now I expect all of those top 5 options to get more than what I would offer. But Astros should definitely be able to fill the need, as there are less contending teams with an opening at starting SS than there are starting caliber SS. And if more teams (Yankees, Phillies, Mariners, Reds) open spots it would mean starting caliber SS (Torres, Segura/Gregorius, Crawford) have likely been made available.
I am still hoping that when Correa looks at his competition in the market this year and next He may see the wisdom in accepting a qualifying offer.
Where is Odorizzi going? I thought we signed him to a multi-year deal... As for our SS hole, I'd love to get Crawford on a 2 or 3 year deal... Edit: Damn didn't see the Giants resigned Crawford to a 2/32 deal...exactly what I wanted!
IMO I think this option is a great idea although I obviously doubt it happens. That said, I have a feeling Correa isn't going to get an offer anywhere near what he thought he was going to receive when he was "insulted" by our 5/125 offer...there are just so many available that it's going to be hard to have leverage.
I think MLB owners and GM’s are “insulted” by that horrendous Lindor contract… which is why Correa won’t get anywhere close to it… could end up being one of those guys that signs right before spring training starts, holding out for a bigger deal and trying to leverage teams against each other
Signing late is a very real possibility for every free agent. They will probably put a freeze on transactions if a new CBA isn't reached when the old one ends December 1st.
